My Notes

• Keep a journal - use it quarterly for 1 week
  • M: Thanksgiving - Write down 3 things you are grateful for from the past week
  • T: Terrific Times - Think about a wonderful experience from your life - choose one experience, write a description of what happened and how you felt
  • W: Future Fantastic - Write about your life in the future - Be realistic, but imagine that everything worked out as best as possible
  • Th: Dear - Think about someone very important to you - Write a short letter to them, telling them how much you care for them and how much of an impact they have had on your life
  • F: Reviewing the situation - think back over this week and write down 3 things that went really well for you. Write a sentence about why you think each went so well
• Create a step by step plan for an overall goal:
  • Each goal should be broken down into max 5 smaller steps
  • Each step should be associated with a goal that is concrete, measurable, realistic, and time-based
  • Think about how you will achieve each step and the reward you ive yourself when you do
  • For each subgoal:
    1. My first subgoal is to …
    2. I believe that I can achieve this goal because…
    3. To achieve this subgoal, I will…
    4. This will be achieved by the following date:
    5. My reward for achieving this will be…
• Motivation to achieve goals (Using Doublethink)
  1. What is your goal?
  2. Potential benefits and setbacks:
     1. Write down 1 word that would reflect an important way in which your life would be better if you achieved your goal
     2. Write down 1 word that would reflect a significant barrier that stands in your way of achieving your goal
     3. Write down 1 word that would reflect another important way your life would be better if you achieved your goal
     4. Write down 1 word that would reflect another significant barrier that stands in your way of achieving your goal
  3. Elaborate your answer to #1 - imagine all the benefits that would flow from this achievement
  4. Elaborate your answer to #2 - imagine how the obsticle hinders your achievement and the steps you would take to deal with it
  5. Elaborate your answer to #3 - imagine all the benefits that would flow from this achievement
  6. Elaborate your answer to #4 - imagine how the obsticle hinders your achievement and the steps you would take to deal with it
• Smile more
• Mind vs Creativity:
  • Quiet guy: Subconsious mind - Capable of great ideas but difficult to hear
  • Loud guy: Consious mind - clever, not as innovative, but difficult to get out of your head
• Identify someone out of a crowd when you need help - avoid bystander effect people respomcibility is diluted among crowd - diffusion of responsibilities
• Reciprocity - save favors for strangers, keep them small (people respond with more than they received), and it must look from the heart not the head
• carry a photo of a cute baby in our wallet to increase likelihood that it will be returned if lost
• 4 techniques
  • right kind of plan
  • telling friends and family
  • focusing on benefits
  • regarding yourself each step of the way
• Anxiety: go for a walk; find greenery
• brief touch on upper arm can influence subconsciously
• Mimicry makes us more attractive
• Get others to talk about themselves
• do romantic gestures
• use foot in the door technique to get stuff - get a firm no with a big request, then a small yes small request
• OCEAN: Openness, Conscientiousness, Extrovertion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism
• Attraction and relationships
  • Women place kindness high on desirableness but is often trumped by bravery
    • They value courage and willingness to take risks above kindness and alturism
  • Quiz:
    1. In general, what type of film would your partner most enjoy?
       • horror
       • comedy
       • action
       • drama
    2. What was your partner's first job
    3. In general, which of the following types of sport would your partner most enjoy watching on TV?
       • Football
       • Baseball
       • Basketball
       • Auto racing
    4. Where was your partner born?
    5. Which of the following books would your partner most like to read?
       • Modby dick
       • A tale of Two Cities
       • Pride and Prejudice
       • Frankenstein
    6. What is your partner's collar size (male) or dress size (female0?
    7. In general, what is the type of vacation would your partner most prefer?
       • Beach
       • Skiing
       • Camping
       • City
    8. What is the first name of your partner's best friend (except yourself)?
    9. Which of the following world leaders would your partner most like to meet?
       • Adolf Hitler
       • JFK
       • Ghandi
       • Churchill
    10. What color are your partner's eyes?
• Exercise calorie chart - log your activity - drop stress level

Table 1: Exercise calorie chart

Activity Calories	burned per min	Do you do this?	If so, how long (min)?	Total cal burned
Normal Walking	3	Y	60	180
Brisk Walking	6	Y		0
Cycling	5	Y		0
Light house work	4	Y		0
Ironing	3	N		0
Washing dishes	3	Y		0
Mowing the lawn	5			0
Washing the car	5.5			0.
Mopping the floor	5.5			0.
Gardening	5			0
Reading a book	1.5			0.
Shopping	3			0
Sitting at a desk	1.5	Y		0.
Watching TV	1.5			0.
Intercourse	2			0
Driving	1.5			0.
Sleeping	1			0
Talking on the phone	1			0
Eating	0.5			0.
Taking a shower	5			0
Standing up	1.5			0.
Taking the stairs	8			0
Playing with kids	4			0

The Franklin Effect – People like you more when they carry out a favor for you. However, the effect has its limitations and is more likely to work with small favors rather than more significant requests that either make people respond begrudgingly or, even worse, refuse.

The Pratfall Effect – The occasional slip-up can enhance your likeability. However, it is important to realize that the effect only really works when you are in danger of being seen as too perfect.

The Bystander Effect – The more people who are around when a person is apparently in need of assistance, the lower the likelihood of any one person actually helping. If you are unfortunate enough to require assistance, increase your chance of getting help by picking out a friendly face in the crowd, and be specific with your problem you have and assistance you need.

“When people can afford the necessities in life, an increase in income does not result in a significantly happier life”. “To encourage people to do more of something they enjoy, try presenting them with the occasional small surprise reward after they have completed the activity, or praise the fruits of their labour”. “To increase the likelihood of someone liking you, get them to do you a favour”. “Some research suggests that eating more slowly helps people eat less, perhaps because it fools our brains into thinking that we’ve eaten more, and allows extra time for the body to digest food”. “Fantasizing about your perfect world may make you feel better but is unlikely to help transform your dreams into reality”.

59 Seconds Summary

• “Happiness doesn’t just flow from success, it actually causes it”.
• “When people can afford the necessities in life, an increase in income does not result in a significantly happier life”.
• “Materialism takes root in early childhood, and is mainly driven by low self-esteem”.
• “Want to buy happiness? Then spend your hard-earned cash on experiences”.
• “When it comes to happiness, remember that it is experiences that represent really good value for money”.
• “If you want to cheer yourself up, behave like a happy person”.
• “To maximize happiness, choose intentional over circumstantial change”.
• “If you set children an activity they enjoy and reward them for doing it, the reward reduces the enjoyment and demotivates them”.
• “To encourage people to do more of something they enjoy, try presenting them with the occasional small surprise reward after they have completed the activity, or praise the fruits of their labour”.
• “It seems that presenting weaknesses early is seen as a sign of openness”.
• “From assessing the effects of a bad-hair day to performing badly in a group discussion, those who feel embarrassed are convinced that their mistakes are far more noticeable than they actually are. Why? It seems we focus on our own looks and behaviour more than others, and so are likely to overestimate their impact”.
• “If you want to increase your chances of making a good impression in a meeting, sit towards the middle of the table”.
• “To increase the likelihood of someone liking you, get them to do you a favour”.
• “When you gossip about another person, listeners unconsciously associate you with the characteristics you are describing, ultimately leading to those characteristics being ‘transferred’ to you”.
• “We like people who are like us, and find them far more persuasive than others”.
• “The more people who are around when a person is apparently in need of assistance, the lower the likelihood of any one person actually helping”.
• “Favours have their strongest effect when they occur between people who don’t know each other very well, and when they are small but thoughtful”.
• “Fantasizing about your perfect world may make you feel better but is unlikely to help transform your dreams into reality”.
• “Some research suggests that eating more slowly helps people eat less, perhaps because it fools our brains into thinking that we’ve eaten more, and allows extra time for the body to digest food”.
• “If you want to reduce your drinking, stay away from short, wide glasses, and stick to tall, narrow ones”.
• “Research shows that just placing food or drink out of sight or moving it a few metres away can have a big effect on consumption”.
• “To cut intake, make sure that tempting foods are out of sight, and in a place that is difficult to access, such as a top cupboard or basement”.
• “People eat significantly more when they are distracted at mealtimes and therefore not paying attention to their food”.
• “Try cutting down on your eating by replacing your crockery and cutlery”.
• “Research conducted by the Kaiser Permanente’s Center for Health Research suggests that making a note of how much you eat can help you lose weight”.
• “Research conducted by Charles Abraham and Paschal Sheeran has shown that just a few moments thinking about how much you will regret not going to the gym will help motivate you to climb off the couch and onto an exercise bike”.
• “Christopher Peterson from the University of Michigan believes encouraging people to consider how they would like to be remembered after their death has various motivational benefits, including helping them to identify their long-term goals, and assess the degree to which they are progressing towards making those goals a reality”.
• “To prime your mind into thinking creatively, spend a few moments describing a typical musician or artist. List their behaviours, lifestyle and appearance”.
• “According to work conducted by psychologist Stephen Worchel from the University of Hawaii at Hilo, biscuits taken from a jar that is almost empty taste significantly better than identical cookies taken from a full jar”.
• “To help promote the chances of a successful date, choose an activity that is likely to get the heart racing”.
• “The theory is that your date will attribute their racing heart to you, rather than the activity, convincing themselves you have that special something”.
• “The results revealed that just a few minutes focusing on the benefits that flowed from the seemingly hurtful experience helped participants deal with the anger and upset caused by the situation. They felt significantly more forgiving towards those who had hurt them, and were less likely to seek revenge or avoid them”.
• “Surrounding yourself with objects that remind you of your partner is good for your relationship”.
• “People are far more likely to agree to a big request if they have already agreed to a small one”.
• “When making straightforward decisions, stick with the conscious mind by thinking about the pros and cons and assessing the situation in a rational, level-headed way. However, for more complex choices, try giving your conscious mind a rest and letting your unconscious work”.
• “Research shows that when most people look back on their lives, they tend to regret things they didn’t do”.
• “To help spot possible shifts, try establishing what researchers have referred to as an ‘honest baseline’. Before asking questions that are likely to elicit deceptive answers, start with those that are far more likely to make the person respond in an honest way. During these initial answers, develop an understanding of how they behave when they are telling the truth by looking at their body language and listening to the words they say. Then, during the answers to the trickier questions, watch out for the behavioural shifts outlined above”.
• “Research shows that people have a strong tendency to underestimate how long a project will take, and that people working in groups are especially likely to have unrealistic expectations”.
• “It seems that to get an accurate estimate of the time needed to complete a project, you need to look at how long it took to finish broadly similar projects in the past”.
• “Those who carried out the mental unpacking produced estimates that proved far more accurate than other participants”.
• “Research shows that people with surnames beginning with a letter towards the start of the alphabet are more successful in life than those with names towards the end”.

Communicate love/respect/friendship to a person in the 'language' they understand - there are 5.

For context, here is an example of when you invite someone over to your place.

1. Physical touch - Greet them with a handshake, hug, kiss.. whatever is appropriate to your culture and relationship.
2. Acts of Service - "Can I carry that for you? Can I take your coat?" Offer to help in some way.
3. Receiving Gifts - Offer them a beverage, food, token, or other thoughtful item.
4. Quality Time - Give them attention, listen; put away the distractions and focus on their story.
5. Words of Affirmation - Pay him or her a genuine compliment.

7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change, by Stephen R. Covey

This book was first published in 1989, and has sold over 25 million copies worldwide in over 40 languages. The 7 habits touted by the book are:

1. Be Proactive
2. Begin with the End in Mind
3. Put First Things First
4. Think Win-Win
5. Seek First to Understand, Then to be Understood
6. Synergize
7. Sharpen the Saw

Building Foundational Habits

Gretchen Rubin’s newest book is Better Than Before.

In the book, she identifies the habits that she sees as “foundational” for everyone. They are:

• Sleeping
• Physical activity
• Eating and drinking right
• Uncluttering

These foundational habits can even reinforce one another. According to Gretchen, “Exercise helps people sleep, and sleep helps people do everything better—so they’re a good place to start for any kind of habit change.” But above all else, “somewhat mysteriously, foundation habits make profound change possible” and for this reason they “deserve special priority.”

1. Be Informed
2. Get Involved
3. Stay Open To Compromise
4. Remain Civil
5. Reject Violence
6. Value Norms
7. Promote The Common Good
8. Respect Government Service
9. Support The Teaching Of Civics
10. Put Country First

Everything is possible, yet only one thing happens - we live and die between these 2 poles, under the rule of probability

Every judgement, every decision we make, if made well, is part of the broader, essential human quest: the endless struggle against randomness.

Deductive logic is confined to describing relations between labels, not necessarily truths about things.

• Ex: If a mountain is smoking, the demons are having a party - there is nothing logically wrong with this argument

The science of uncertainty is probability; it deals with what is repeated but inconsistent. Its statements are not the definitive all or no of deductive logic but nuanced: most, hardly, sometimes, and perhaps. It separates normal from exceptional, predictable from random, and determines whether an action is "worth it." It is the science of risk, conjecture, and expectation - that is, of getting on with life.

Value for real life:

• P(A|B) = P(A) X (P(B|A)/({P(B|A) X P(A)}+{P(B|notA) X P(notA)})

The question remains: How right do you need to be?

In order to cheat at a game involving repetition, you must already have a good sense of what should normally happen. Dice are the earliest and simplest form of random event generator: when you throw 2 dice, any on of 36 combinations can occur.

Power law: The probability of repeated successes in several independent trials is calculated by multiplying their individual probabilities

• Chance of throwing an ace twice in a row is = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
• Thanks to Cardano to calculate correctly the odds of doing the same thing more than once

Question: How many throws produce an even chance of throwing at least one 6?

• "At least one" is opposite of "none" - the chance that something will happen is the inverse of the chance that it will never happen.
• Chance of not getting a 6 is 5/6 -> chance of not throwing a 6 in three throws in a row is 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 125/216 = 0.5787
• Chance of throwing at least one 6 is 1 - 0.5787 = 0.4213

The distribution of probabilities in a game of chance is the same as that in any repeated test - even though the result of any one test is unpredictable.

• The sum of all the numbers on the nth row of the triangle, 2ⁿ, is also the total of possible answers to a yes-no question asked n times.

Pascal's triangle 1 Total 1 1 (1+1)¹ 1 2 1 (1+1)² 1 3 3 1 (1+1)³

We, when we want to take advantage of the rigor of science, have to define our problem in a form that's repeatedly testable, or abandon it. "Why is an apple sweet?" - that is not a scientific question.

Given big enough odds against something, you can gauge how many trials are needed to have an even chance of seeing it happen by multiplying the odds by 0.7 (log 2).

• This applies to anything: roulette, cards, eclipses of the moon
• The odds against rolling a double-six are 35 to 1 or 35:1 (35/36)
  • 35 * 0.7 = 24.5 trials

Geometry of chance: Shape that governs our lives, defines normality, the bell curve.

• Standard deviation: 1/2*sqrt(n) for n trials
• Area under bell curve from midpoint to inflection point: 0.341344 (assuming total area is 1)
• Area for 2SD: 0.682688
• For an experiment with equal chances of success or failure, we can expect a bit more than 2/3 of results to be within 1/2*sqr(n) of our expected middle value.

When something is intrinsically rare or unlikely, it doesn't matter how truthful or sincere a witness is - the essential unlikelihood prevails.

Poisson's curve plots the product of probability time number of trials for things that happen rarely but have many opportunities to happen (more steeple than curve)

• Formula: Wm = (e^-0.7(0.7)^m)/m!
• m = number of deaths per year whose probability we want to gauge
• If m = 1, the probability is 0.3476
• If applied to 280 experiments, the probable number of times 1 death would occur in any coprs during 1 year is 97.3

The probability of an event is the same as the measure of a set.

Some things happen more often than other things … in the long run.

The problem with life is that we have to live it from the beginning, but it makes sense only when seen from the end. As a result, our whole experience is one of coming to provisional conclusions based on insufficient evidence: reading the signs, gauging the odds.

This selective interest, filing away victories and discarding defeats, may well explain why old people consider themselves happier than the young. Our view of life is literary - and we edit well.

Random walk: Sequential arbitrariness

• For n throws, the average final distance over several picnics' worth of random walks will be sqrt(n) times the length of the throw
• Shows up everywhere randomness is applied to the output of another random function

As an optimist, you would say that life has no house edge. Probability theory reveals that there is more to a bet than just odds.

• Imagine a fair casino - will the game go on forever or will one player eventually clean out?
• Imagine the moment of a gambler at their last dollar - His chance of avoiding ruin is exceedingly small.
• Increase that amount (while reducing the banks) to the point where the chance of ruin is equal between gambler and bank - When capital is equal
• Conclusion:
  1. The game will necessarily end with the ruin of one party
  2. That party will be the one who started with the smaller capital
• Even when life is fair, it isne't
• Your chances in this world are proportional to the depth of your pockets - the house wins by virtue of being the house

Bet your shirt on a horse, your retirement on GE, your premiums on disaster, your tuition on a college … your energy on a book. Birth is just anteing up; every action thereafter is a bet. We need betting to remind us of our habit of drawing conclusions from insufficient evidence; we must remember that being too sure of anything is likely to end in a winking queen and a sudden surge of blood to the head.

Consider the ratio of your insurance premium to the value of your house - if this is a reflection of the reality of the probability of your losing everything in a fire, maybe the world (seen as a whole) is less dangerous than it seems.

We think we are more prone to misfortune than simple probability suggests - because the evil thing that happens to us is intrinsically worse than the same thing happening to someone else. "Who has a sorrow like unto my sorrow?" When misfortune strikes me or those I love, it ceases to be a statistic and becomes a unique tragedy, too imaginable in all its terrible detail. It is no longer Chance - it is Destiny.

Life is flow, life is change; the fact that something has occurred Cannot itself guarantee that it will happen again.

For any given phenomenon, our uncertainty about it decreases as the number of our observations of it increases.

• Repeated observations help refine our opinion with smaller and smaller ranges of error:
  • Meet five people and the most even of sexes is 3:2
  • Meet 1000 people and you can reduce expected error to 490-510 (a 0.1% margin)

The Weak Law of Large Numbers:

• The basis for all our dealings with repeated phenomena of uncertain cause - and it states that for any given degree of accuracy, there is a finites number of observations necessary to achieve that degree of accuracy.

Laplace 8th Principle: When the advantage depends on several events it is obtained by taking the sum of the products of the probability of each event by the benefit attached to its occurrence.

• Ex: If offered 2 chips if you flip heads on the first toss and 4 chips if you flip heads only on the 2nd:
  • Multiply each chance of winning by its potential gains and add together
  • (1/2*2)+(1/2*1/2*4) = 2
  • If it costs fewer than 2 chips to play - you should play, if more then no

Laplace 9th Principle: In a series of probable events of which the ones produce a beenfit and the others a loss, we shall have the advantage which results from it by making a sum of the products of the probability of each favorable event by the benefit it procures, and subtracting from this sum that of the products of the probability of each unfavorable event by the loss which is attached to it. If the second sum is greater than the first, the benefit becomes a loss and hope is changed to fear.

Laplace 10th Principle: The relative value of an infinitely small sum is equal to its absolute value divided by the total benefit of the person interested. This supposes that everyone has a certain benefit whose value can never be estimated as zero. Indeed even that one who possesses nothing always gives to the product of his labor and to his hopes a value at least equal to that which is absolutely necessary to sustain him.

• Relative value of the amount risked = Risk / Fortune

Bernoulli's "moral certainty" determines whether you should expect something to happen; Laplace's "moral hope" determines the implications if it happens to you.

Life can never be fair. Since our resources are not infinite, even straightforward 50-50 odds make for a loss that will always be morally greater than the gain. The world is fundamentally different for the observer and the participant.

Insurance is a rebalance of responsibility. The basic equations of insurance offer a measure of control over 3 ratios:

1. Ratio of observed cases to moral certainty - how many past events you need to know to be willing to bet on the future - which suggests that greater specialization can be more profitable
2. Ratio of actual loss to insured loss - how much you can save from the wreck - which suggests that prevention is worth the expense
3. Ratio of potential loss to total capitol - how hard any one misfortune will hit your reserves - which implies that bigger capitol is always better

Probability, once applied to the human world, ceases to be the study of occurance; it becomes the study of ourselves.

As individuals, we are as full of variation as an observation is full of error. As members of society, though, we approximate the mean.

• Beauty is not what is in the eye of the beholder, it is innate in the normal.

Student's t-test

• how far a sample could be expected to differ in mean value and spread from the whole population using only the number of observations in the sample
• Start with null hypothesis - that the obserrved difference is due only to chance
• Then chose a measure, a statistic, and determine how it would be distributed if the null hypothesis were true
• Define what might be an interesting value for this statistic (effect) and determine the probability of seeing this value if the null hypothesis were true (p-value)
  • This number states either the null hypothesis is false and there is a real cause to the effect or a measurabley unusual coincidence occurred
  • Assuming that chance alone was responsible for the results, what is the probability of a correlation at least as strong as the one you saw?

If you want to squeeze out chance, you need repetition and large samples. Large samples are more important than repetition.

High correlation is not enough for inference: when an effect is naturally rare and the putative cause is very common, the chance of coincidence becomes significant (vaccines/autism).

A meta-analysis of al the effectiveness trials submitted to the FDA for the 6 most widely prescribed antidepressants approved for use between 1987 and 1999 found that on the standard 50-point scale for depression, the drugs, on average, moved the patients' mood by only 2 points more than did placebo. In other words, the placebo showed about 80% of the effectiveness of the medication. So, although antidepressants showed a statistically significant effect, it was clinically negligible - if you assume that the effect of medication should be additional to the placebo effect.

All the things that affect the quality of a study - sample size, randomization, double-blinding, placebo selection, statistical power - err statistically in the same direction: the less perfect the study, the more likely a positive result.

Phrasing of results - these all describe the same study:

• Program A reduced the death rate by 34% (RRR)
• Program B produced a absolute reduction in deaths of 0.06% (ARR)
• Program C increased the patients' survival rate from 99.82% to 99.88% (ARR)
• Program D meant that 1,592 patients needed to be screened to prevent 1 death (NNT)

Abductive reasoning:

• When investigating something in life do not make a hypothesis, make a series of micro-hypotheses, plausible explanations for each piece of evidence as you see it.
• You build out from what you see

Game outcomes:

• The good, the simple, and the possible are 3 different things and rarely coincide; so, if you find yourself in a situation where they do not, your definition of the good - your utility function - may have to change to suit the equilibria.

Game theory tips your hand, because it allows your opponent to assume you will make the rational choice - so if you don't want to reveal your choice, you may have to commit to appearing irrational. This is what Richard Nixon approvingly called the "Mad President" strategy.

Every negotiation, from the divorcec courts to the United Nations, still involves accepting the least bad as a substitute for the best. (Mixed strategy)

The more we strive for perfect safety, the harder it is to venture out into the world and learn its lessons. Children are thus unprepared to deal with people who hold ideas inimical to the ones they have been taught. College and life beyond it are filled with different ideas; it’s a mistake to shield students from such controversy. Instead, they should learn how to listen to and debate with new and uncomfortable ideas.

Parents are too protective of their children. This can increase risks for them. For example, people need stress and challenges to grow and learn, but parents may be preventing that from happening by making things safer for them. In fact, professor Nicholas Taleb believes that we’re antifragile: We need stressors in order to thrive. Improvements in safety have caused death rates to plummet; however, on college campuses these protections include students’ emotional safety as well—such as gender pronouns—and professors who use the wrong pronoun “impairs” or prevents students from being safe at school

Untruths:

1. The Untruth of Fragility: What Doesn’t Kill You Makes You Weaker
   • People have been very concerned about peanut allergies, so they’ve protected their children from being exposed to peanuts. However, research has shown that this actually increases the number of people with peanut allergies.
   • A culture of overprotecting children from emotional pain can lead to them being overly sensitive, which makes them more fragile. This is a primary cause of the disease.
   • A new generation of people born after 1995 is suffering from higher rates of anxiety and depression, believing that they should be safe not just from car accidents and sexual assault but also disagreement.
2. The Untruth of Emotional Reasoning: Always Trust Your Feelings
   • Cognitive distortions are common in people. They include emotional reasoning, catastrophizing, overgeneralizing, mind reading, labeling, discounting positives and blaming others for their problems. These cognitive distortions are present in everyone at some point of time or the other during college days and can be countered by a good education system
3. The Untruth of Us Versus Them: Life Is a Battle Between Good People and Evil People
   • Humans have a tendency to be more tribal. When they’re in a tribe, they tend to not pay attention to arguments and information that challenge their team’s narrative. However, when it’s peaceful times, people are less tribalistic and there is more freedom for mixing of ideas.

Big Ideas:

1. Big Idea #1: To become strong, young people need to face challenges.
   • The main idea here is that young people need to face challenges in order to become strong.
   • Safetyism has expanded the definition of “safety” to include protection from challenging ideas and feelings of discomfort, instead of just protecting against physical threats.
   • That means that students who are too “protected” won’t be able to handle challenges as adults. They’ll have no experience with them, and they’ll likely fail when the stakes get high.
2. Big Idea #2: When we assume the worst about others, it only makes campus tensions worse.
   • Students are assuming the worst about others’ intentions. They’re succumbing to cognitive distortions that make the world seem far more hostile than it really is. Students are allowing their emotions and irrational sides to cloud their vision, which misrepresents situations that upset them.
   • In order to not jump to conclusions about people, we should analyze our thoughts and make sure that they are reasonable. It is often helpful for everyone if we can find a more charitable interpretation of each other’s actions.
3. Big Idea #3: College politics encourages harmful thinking in tribes.
   • The human mind is designed to think in groups. We favor those who are like us and don’t like those who aren’t.
   • The main idea of this passage is: College politics encourages harmful tribal thinking.
   • However, some people have interpreted intersectionality in a harmful way. They depict privileged groups as oppressors and others as virtuous victims. This interpretation can help to inflame simmering tribal loyalties and pit people against each other.
   • We need to be able to live with people who are different from us. We can’t do this if we view them as black and white. In the next key point, I’ll discuss what happens when we lose sight of that fact.
4. Big Idea #4: College campuses are becoming more and more tense.
   • The main idea here is that tensions on college campuses are escalating. People have been using violence to make their voices heard and have become more vicious than ever before. What caused this to happen?
   • In the past, students have redefined the word “safety” to include emotional comfort. Now they’ve also redefined “violence” to include harsh or unsympathetic speech.
5. Big Idea #5: Politics is becoming more and more antagonistic.
   • The key point of this passage is that the political atmosphere in the US has become more and more hostile. This isn’t just a feeling, it’s backed up by research. The Pew Research Center conducted surveys to find out how Republicans and Democrats differed on their beliefs, and found that there was an increase in hostility over time. In 2004 they were 17% apart on their beliefs; by 2017 they were 36% apart—an increase of 110%.
   • While many people are enthusiastic about their party, they’re more motivated by a hatred of the other party than by support for their own.
   • In general, politics has become less focused on the ideals of individuals and more about stoking fanatical hatreds.
6. Big Idea #6: Bureaucracy is getting out of hand at universities.
   • Bureaucrats are so eager to protect students that they overregulate them and end up stifling their creativity.
   • Political speech is often censored. Many codes defining what can and cannot be said on campuses are vague. For example, Jacksonville State University once forbade students from offending anyone on campus—a code that’s impossible to enforce!
   • Now, it’s good to avoid offending people. But if we’re too sensitive and try to avoid that at all costs, then we won’t learn how to resolve disputes ourselves. Instead, we’ll have to rely on the government and other authorities for everything.
7. Big Idea #7: We can teach young people better habits of mind.
   • The key message is that we can teach young people to adopt better, healthier habits of mind. We need to get them away from the “cult of safetyism” and show them how risks are often opportunities for growth.
   • When raising children, we should remember the saying “Prepare the child for the road, not the road for the child.” In other words, we should teach our children how to deal with life’s difficulties instead of trying to shield them from all of life’s discomforts.

Features of political witch hunts:

• They arise quickly: a community mobilizes itself rapidly to remove a threat.
• Crimes against the collective: the threat is existential.
• Charges are trivial or fabricated. Innocent people are often victims of the witch hunt.
• Fear of defending the accused.

Two types of cultural mindsets:

• Dignity culture: People have an intrinsic sense of self-worth regardless of what others thing. Minor slights can be ignored or met with minimal reaction. Think: “sticks and stones will break my bones, but words will never harm me.”
• Victimhood culture: Surrenders the locus of control to external forces.
  • Individuals and groups display a high sensitivity to slights and offenses.
  • Prefers to mediate conflict through third parties.
  • Victims need to be assisted by third parties.

Practice Adam Grant’s “four rules for productive disagreement”:

• Frame it as a debate not a conflict.
• Argue as if you’re right but listen as if you’re wrong. Be willing to change your mind.
• Interpret the other person’s ideas and argument charitably and respectfully.
• Highlight areas of agreement and things you’ve learned from the other person.

CBT:

• The basic process for cognitive behavioral therapy is to write down the distress, note what happened and any automatic thoughts at the moment of the distress, look through a list of categories of distorted automatic thoughts and note any that apply, consider evidence for and against those thoughts, consider what someone might say who disagrees with those thoughts, re-evaluate those original thoughts based on this new information, then write down new thoughts. Over time these negative thought patterns will fade as you replace them with more positive ones.
• In cognitive therapy, distorted thoughts are considered to be a form of mental illness. They can take the form of mind reading (thinking someone thinks you’re a loser), fortune-telling (thinking you won’t get the job), catastrophizing (imagining failure would be terrible), labeling (calling someone rotten) and discounting positives, negative filtering, overgeneralizing and dichotomous thinking.
• Other distorted thought categories include blaming (“My parents caused all my problems”); unfair comparisons (“She’s more successful than I am”); regret orientation (“I shouldn’t have said that. What if I get anxious? What if the plane crashes?”); what if? (“What if I get anxious?” “What if the plane crashes?”); emotional reasoning (“I feel depressed, therefore my marriage isn’t working out”); inability to disconfirm (that wasn’t the real issue”; and judgment focus (“I’m not successful.”).
• The “cognitive triad” of depression is a common pattern of beliefs:
  • “I’m no good.”
  • “My world is bleak.”
  • “My future is hopeless.”
• Schema: Patterns of thoughts and behaviors that develop over time and are used to process information and interact with the world.
  • Schemas are associated with the elephant in the “elephant and rider” metaphor.
    • The elephant and the rider: Metaphor used by Haidt to illustrate the mental division between reason and emotion. The rider sits atop the elephant and embodies conscious thinking and critical thought. The elephant represents everything else (emotion, intuition, automatic thinking, the primitive mind, etc.).
      • The rider believes he is in control but the elephant is bigger and stronger.
      • The elephant should “win” in any head-to-head conflict.
      • “The rider is skilled at producing post-how justifications for whatever the elephant does or believes.”
  • Depressed people carry schemas that are disempowering.
• Cognitive distortions: Types of irrational, negative or exaggerated thought patterns that can lead to depression and anxiety (note: we all engage in these distortions from time to time).
  • Emotional reasoning: Using feelings to primarily interpret reality. Example: “I feel depressed; therefore, my marriage is not working.”
  • Catastrophizing: Fixation on the worst possible outcome in any given situation. “It will be in the end of the world if I fail this thing.”
  • Overgeneralizing: Deriving patterns are universal truths from singular examples. “This one thing went poorly. I always fail at everything.”
  • Dichotomous Thinking: Aka “black-and-white thinking,” “all-or-nothing thinking,” and “binary thinking.” [probably similar to zero-sum thinking too]. Viewing things in absolute terms: “I always lose.” “It was a total waste of time.”
  • Mind Reading: Assuming you know how others think without sufficient or credible evidence.
  • Labeling: Assigning negative traits to yourself or others.
  • Negative Filtering: Focusing on the negatives and failing to notice the positives in a given situation (“half glass empty” thinking, pessimism).
  • Discounting Positives: Trivializing positive things in order to maintain a focus on the negative. “That’s what she’s supposed to do—so it doesn’t count when she’s nice to me.”
  • Blaming: Refusing to take responsibility for your response or feelings. “She’s to blame for the way I feel now.” “They made me this way.”

## Digital minimalism centers on 3 principles:

1. Clutter is costly
2. Optimization is important
3. Intentionality is satisfying

## Digital Declutter Steps

1. Put aside a 30 day period where you take a break from optional technologies in your life
   • "Optional" technology is any device, app, or service that you can stop using for 30 days without harming or significantly disrupting the daily flow of your personal or professional life.
   • Establish your own rules regarding how you will deal with technology beforehand
2. During this time, explore and rediscover activities and behaviors you find satisfying and meaningful
3. Reintroduce optional technologies into your life starting with a blank slate. For each, determine what value it serves on your life, and how specifically you will use it so as to maximize this value - use this 3 step screen:
   1. it must serve something you deeply value
   2. be the best way for technology to serve this value
   3. have a roller in your life that is constrained by a standard operating procedures specifying when and how you use it

## Solitude

Spend time alone with your thoughts. Some things to consider doing:

• leave your phone at home
• take long walks
• write letters to yourself

## Don't click like

> The philosophy of conversation-centric communication argues that conversation is the only form of interaction that in some sense counts toward maintaining a relationship. This conversation can take the form of a face-to-face meeting, or it can be a video chat or a phone call—so long as it matches Sherry Turkle’s criteria of involving nuanced analog cues, such as the tone of your voice or facial expressions. Anything textual or non-interactive - basically, all social media, email, text, and instant messaging - doesn’t count as conversation and should instead be categorized as mere connection.

To develop relationships, we need conversation not connection - a connection is like text or email - whatever we try to communicate but we're unable to read facial or other contextual cues

• Don't click like and don't comment on social media - these are not equivalent to a conversation and that is what counts.
• Consolidated texting - use do not disturb and check texts only intermittently - help value conversation and contact. If urgent, call; important for social but take away from conversation value
• Hold conversation office hours - always available at 5:30 on weekdays - put aside time to always answer phone from people you want to talk to and promote that time. Also coffee shop hours (sat morning s) or daily walks like Steve jobs

## Reclaim high quality leisure

The Bennett Principle of 3 leisure lessons:

1. Prioritize demanding activity over passive consumption - craft USA good activity;
2. Use skills to produce valuable things in the physical world
3. Seek activities that require real world structure and social interactions

### Work on Your Leisure

• Fix or build something every week - use YouTube to learn
• Schedule your low quality leisure - work out when you will check social media, web surfing, and entertainment streaming
• Join something - like Ben Franklin - join first, then work out details
• Follow a leisure plan:
  • Create seasonal leisure plans - establish strategic goals and write habits to meet goals
  • Weekly leisure plan - review weekly the seasonal plan progress, review habits for plans

## Join the Attention Resistance

Replace passive interactions with screens with better posture use as a support role

• Delete social media from your phone - avoid mobile versions as they are designed with slot machine psychology - use only on web browser on your laptop/desktop
• Turn your devices into single-purpose computers - use tools to block distractions (freedom, etc)
• Use social media like a professional - Ex:
  • Keep Facebook only for close friends (<150 - Dunbar number)
  • Don't use for entertainment
  • Limit days per week of use
• Embrace slow media - be purposeful with your news sources and schedule your time for consumption
  • This includes books, newspapers, and podcasts.
• Dumb down your smartphone
  • Delete unnecessary apps
  • Talk >> Text

The 10 Instincts That Distort Our Perspective:

1. The Gap Instinct.
   • Our tendency to divide things into two distinct and often conflicting groups with an imagined gap between them (e.g. us and them).
   • Usually there is no gap - usually the majority is there in the middle
   • Beware comparisons of averages.
   • Beware comparisons of extremes.
   • Watch out for the "The view from up here."
2. The Negativity Instinct.
   • Our tendency to notice the bad more than the good (e.g. believing that things are getting worse when things are actually getting better).
   • To control the negativity instinct, expect bad news.
   • Information about bad events is much more likely to reach us
   • Better and bad. Practice distinguishing between a level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better). Convince yourself that things can be both better and bad.
   • Good news is not news. When you see bad news, ask whether equally, positive news would have reached you.
   • Gradual improvement is not news. When a trend is gradually improving, with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips than the overall improvement.
   • More news does not equal more suffering.
   • Beware of rosy pasts.
3. The Straight Line Instinct.
   • Our tendency to assume that a line will just continue straight and ignoring that such lines are rare in reality.
   • To control the straight line instinct, remember that curves come in different shapes.
   • Don't assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines.
4. The Fear Instinct.
   • Our hardwired tendency to pay more attention to frightening things.
   • To control the fear instinct, calculate the risks.
   • The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected precisely because it is scary.
   • Risk = danger × exposure. The risk something poses to you depends not on how scared it makes you feel, but on a combination of two things.
   • Get calm before you carry on. When you are afraid, you see the world differently. Make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.
5. The Size Instinct.
   • Our tendency to get things out of proportion, or misjudge the size of things (e.g. we systematically overestimate the proportions of immigrants in our countries.)
   • To control the size instinct, get things in proportion.
   • Compare. Big numbers always look big. Single numbers on their own are misleading and should make you suspicious. Always look for comparisons. Ideally, divide by something.
   • 80/20. Have you been given a long list? Look for the few largest items and deal with those first. They are likely more important.
   • Divide. Amounts and rates can tell very different stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between different-sized groups. In particular, look for rates per person when comparing between countries or regions.
6. The Generalization Instinct.
   • Our tendency to mistakenly group together things or people, or countries that are actually very different.
   • To control the generalization instinct, question your categories.
   • Look for differences within groups.
   • Look for similarities across groups.
   • Look for differences across groups.
   • Beware of “the majority.” The majority just means more than half. Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in between.
   • Beware of vivid examples. Vivid images are easier to recall but they might be the exception rather than the rule.
   • Assume people are not idiots. When something looks strange, be curious and humble, and think, In what way is this a smart solution?
7. The Destiny Instinct.
   • The idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions, or cultures; that things are as they are because of inescapable reasons.
   • To control the destiny instinct, remember slow change is still change.
   • Keep track of gradual improvements. A small change every year can translate to a huge change over time.
   • Update your knowledge. Some knowledge goes out of date quickly. Technology, countries, societies, cultures, and religions are constantly changing.
   • Talk to Grandpa. If you want to be reminded of how values have changed, think about your grandparents’ values and how they differ from yours.
   • Collect examples of cultural change. Challenge the idea that today’s culture must also have been yesterday’s, and will also be tomorrow’s.
8. The Single Perspective.
   • Our tendency to focus on a single cause or perspective when it comes to understanding the world (e.g. forming your worldview by relying on the media, alone).
   • To control the single perspective instinct, get a toolbox, not a hammer.
   • Test your ideas. Don’t only collect examples that show how excellent your favorite ideas are. Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
   • Limited expertise. Don’t claim expertise beyond your field: be humble about what you don’t know. Be aware too of the limits of the expertise of others.
   • Hammers and nails. If you are good with a tool, you may want to use it too often. If you have analyzed a problem in depth, you can end up exaggerating the importance of that problem or of your solution. Remember that no one tool is good for everything. If your favorite idea is a hammer, look for colleagues with screwdrivers, wrenches, and tape measures. Be open to ideas from other fields.
   • Numbers, but not only numbers. The world cannot be understood without numbers, and it cannot be understood with numbers alone. Love numbers for what they tell you about real lives.
   • Beware of simple ideas and simple solutions. History is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to justify terrible actions. Welcome complexity. Combine ideas. Compromise. Solve problems on a case-by-case basis.
9. The Blame Instinct.
   • Our tendency to find a clear, simple reason for why something bad has happened.
   • To control the blame instinct, resist finding a scapegoat.
   • Look for causes, not villains. When something goes wrong don’t look for an individual or a group to blame. Accept that bad things can happen without anyone intending them to. Instead spend your energy on understanding the multiple interacting causes, or system, that created the situation.
   • Look for systems, not heroes. When someone claims to have caused something good, ask whether the outcome might have happened anyway, even if that individual had done nothing. Give the system some credit.
10. The Urgency Instinct.
    • Our tendency to take immediate action in the face of perceived imminent danger, and in doing so, amplifying our other instincts.
    • To control the urgency instinct, take small steps.
    • Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is triggered, your other instincts kick in and your analysis shuts down. Ask for more time and more information. It’s rarely now or never and it’s rarely either/or.
    • Insist on the data. If something is urgent and important, it should be measured. Beware of data that is relevant but inaccurate, or accurate but irrelevant. Only relevant and accurate data is useful.
    • Beware of fortune-tellers. Any prediction about the future is uncertain. Be wary of predictions that fail to acknowledge that. Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst case. Ask how often such predictions have been right before.
    • Be wary of drastic action. Ask what the side effects will be. Ask how the idea has been tested. Step-by-step practical improvements and evaluation of their impact are less dramatic but usually more effective.

Key Takeaways:

• Don't fall into the misconception that the world is worse off than it is
  • Many people think that there are far more third-world countries than there actually are.
  • Example: In 1965, there were 125 developing countries, while today only 13 countries are considered to be still developing.
• Our negativity instinct can drive other huge misconceptions
  • The media often focuses on the negative to attract readers’ attention, so many people think the world is much worse off than it used to be, when in fact, the human race has made substantial progress.
  • Example: Many people think much of the world still lives in poverty, while in actuality, only 9% live in poverty compared to 85% in 1800.
• Be wary of your "straight-line" instinct and your overactive fear instinct
  • The "straight line" instinct is the erroneous tendency to believe anything that is moving in a certain direction will keep moving that way in a linear fashion. Our fear instinct evolved during a time when there were substantially more immediate dangers.
  • Example: The world's population has steadily climbed, causing panic about the future. However, experts forecast the population will level off by the end of the 21st century.
• Contextualize new information you acquire
  • People tend to overgeneralize data and don’t interpret it within the proper context, which results in much more drastic assumptions than necessary.
  • Example: The statistic that four million babies died last year could make some arrive at a very dark conclusion about the world. However, it's also important to look at this statistic in the context of progress, as 14.4 million babies died in 1950.
• To see the world accurately, consider multiple perspectives and avoid placing blame
  • Most of the world’s problems are very complex and cannot be solved with a single solution. Progress requires looking at the issue from several angles.
  • Example: Many people blamed refugee drownings in the Mediterranean on traffickers. In reality, host nation laws required trafficker boats be confiscated upon entrance, influencing traffickers’ decision to use poor quality boats.
• Stick to the facts and don’t exaggerate
  • Much information circulating is exaggerated to sway people’s opinion. But, exaggeration lessens your credibility as soon as your audience discovers you are inflating facts.
  • Example: Climate change is real. However, some doomsday activists have lost support because of their failure to discuss the issue from all angles.

• Expose yourself to as many new opportunities as possible to discover your unrealized aptitudes.
• Strive to have a growth mindset. It will allow you to develop and improve your abilities.
• Find your passions, things you do without noticing the passage of time.
• Forge your own path, along with an understanding of your happiness, instead of blindly seeking wealth, immediate gratification, or other people’s definitions of happiness.
• Don’t plan your life when you’re young because life is unpredictable.
• Don’t assume you are bad at something because you performed poorly in that subject in school. Standardized tests only measure one kind of human intelligence and schools only cater to a few learning styles.
• Every person is special and different because of their genetic makeup (every human who ever existed in history has their own genes) and their environment (everyone has their unique mix of family, friends, and location).
• If you accept you can’t predict or control the future, you will discover many new opportunities.
• Experiencing positive emotions from your passion reduces stress, chronic pain, and addictions. It also improves sleep and concentration.
• Finding a group of people who share your passion can be very beneficial, or even necessary, for both you and other members of the group to realize personal goals.

• Focus. When other thoughts enter the mind, record them on an external nearby Thought Bucket.
• Empty the Thought Bucket weekly and organize it.
• Remove unimportant items, finish 2-minute tasks, and enter deadlines, or appointments in your calendar.
• Practice outcome thinking by having a project list that tracks steps leading to desired goals. The most urgent step on the project list goes to the Next Action list.
• The Next Action list should stay with you at all times so you can choose to act on them when time frees up.
• The Waiting For list can help expedite things.
• The Tickler File consists of 31 days and 12 months into the future, and is for time sensitive reminders.
• The Someday/Maybe list is for ideas in the future that are not concrete projects yet.
• Set up a functional workplace to create a cockpit of control that eases your mind.
• Review and update all of your lists weekly.
• Natural planning turns ambiguous ideas into brainstorming sessions that reduce the fog and provide clarity into actionable steps.
• Don’t multi-task. Focus 100% of your mental capacity on the task at hand.
• Our brain’s nature is to think. Thus, thoughts might enter our mind that distract us from the current tasks.
• Daily to-do lists are inefficient because of their warped view of time.

He says our brain is divided into two main parts. Your limbic system is in charge of your basic instincts, the needs for sleep, food and sex.

The neocortex is, as its name suggests, a newer part of the brain, responsible for your rational thinking. It’s what keeps your limbic system in check and makes sure you don’t run around naked on the street, overeat, or sleep in when you’re supposed to go to work.

While the neocortex follows suit to your thoughts, your limbic brain doesn’t. It’s fully in charge of your heart rate, moving while you sleep or the knee-jerk reflex.

Haidt therefore describes the limbic brain as a wild elephant, with your neocortex being the rider, trying to control the elephant. It’s a bit reminiscent of Kahneman’s two systems

Unhappiness comes from the rider and the elephant disagreeing, and Haidt uses this metaphor to show you what you can do to close the gap between the two.

50% to 80% of your baseline level of happiness is determined in your genes, but by changing your thoughts you can still train the elephant.

For example, your limbic brain is trained to recognize danger everywhere, in order to survive, but by becoming an optimist, you can lessen this behavior, which isn’t quite so useful today.

A large chunk of our happiness comes from our social relationships, and the first step towards improving them, is understanding them.

Reciprocity is the principle on which we interact, which is why you feel guilty if you don’t return a favor and Sheldon feels compelled to give a gift back. We feel so strongly about it, that we’d prefer to get nothing, rather than receiving an unfair share.

You can use this principle the next time you fight with your spouse or roommate: Just admit some of the things you did wrong. Your friend will start to reciprocate and also admit what they did wrong, helping both of you to resolve the conflict.

Doing this also helps lessening your self-serving bias, since your elephant thinks it’s always right and your rider usually defends it.

Next to your relationships, your work is one of the few factors that matters a lot to your happiness.

The adaptation principle shows that whatever lucky event or adversity we face, we get used to it. This was proven in a study showing that people who won the lottery and people who became paralyzed both returned to their baseline happiness levels after one year.

However, what you spend your time working on is one of those external circumstances that has a big impact, thanks to the progress principle. It says that we draw much more happiness from working towards a goal, rather than reaching it.

So try to find meaningful work you’re good at – as Confucius says: “Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life.”

Your most important relationship in your life will likely be the one with your partner or spouse. But on your quest for love, don’t just rely on passion. No matter how much “in love” you are at the beginning of the relationship, it naturally fades – and that’s okay.

Haidt says we must seek to develop companionate love, which is what best friends, brothers, sisters and family members share. Having someone at your side through the ups and downs of life, sharing your joy and sadness and exploring and learning together creates a much stronger bond, which can last you a lifetime, but it takes time to develop.

So don’t give up a relationship once passion fades, but give your companionate love time to develop.

The rider and the elephant might also disagree about who you are. For example your rider can try to preserve your image of being an efficient, career-driven manager, while your elephant just wants to cut himself some slack and play soccer with his buddies.

It often takes a crisis for us to see these differences, which is why adversity can make us happier. This is especially true for people in their teens and twenties, who spend a lot of time thinking and looking for meaning in their lives. A crisis gives you the chance to see what the elephant really wants and help the rider adjust your self-image to match your true desires.

Lastly, we need to feel connected to something greater than ourselves, which is why religion has a place in our lives. Even if you’re an atheist, you probably believe in karma, destiny or fortune. That’s a good thing! Belief gives us a sense of awe, because it makes us realize that we’re a small part of something much greater.

To sum up:

• Surround yourself with the people you love the most and live in accordance with reciprocity
• Do work that matters to you
• Find a partner who will stand by your side through sunshine and rain
• Allow yourself to be part of something greater

Haidt explains three effective ways of changing the mind to find happiness. These include meditation, cognitive therapy, and medications in the SSRI family.

The goal of meditation, he says is to control and tame the affective styles of your elephant.

Indeed we are fairly accurate in our perceptions of others. It’s the perception of our selves that is inaccurate.

This is the actual happiness formula:

• Happiness = S + C + V
  • Set points (basically your biology)
  • Conditions of your life
  • Voluntary activities

Avoid the following:

• Chronic noise in your environment
• Long commute (you adapt to the bigger place out of town but not to the commute)
• Situations where you lack control (ie.: stuck in traffic)
• Shame: if you feel ashamed for something, fix it or find a way to get over it

Get more of the following:

• Good relationships
• Social circle (even introverts will be happier, os if you’re one strive to become ambivert)
• Flow (read more here on how to reach flow)
• Become a satisficer (research products less and be more content with 1st option, also read “The Paradox of Choice“)
• Constraints (social constraints can help provide structure and meaning)
• Work on your strengths, not weaknesses
• Do engage in volunteer work (even more helpful for socially isolated people)

The most apt metaphor for thinking about the human mind is of a human rider sitting atop an elephant. The rider, representing reason, can do her best to attempt to direct the elephant. But the elephant, representing emotion, is far more powerful and has its own will; it will only comply with the rider’s commands if those commands are not in conflict with its desire.

But we should be careful not to overgeneralize. Reason and emotion are not mutually exclusive or engaged in some zero-sum contest against one another. While emotion is usually the senior partner in the relationship, it is a partnership nonetheless. The two work together—reason enhances our emotional intelligence and our emotional intelligence strengthens our powers of reason.

In general, these strategies are centered around:

• Overcoming negativity by moving to the upper range of your affective style
• Practicing reciprocity and tearing down self-delusions
• Desiring the right things
• Improving your relationships
• Learning to overcome adversity
• Cultivating your virtues
• Discovering the divine or sacred in your life
• Living a purposeful life

The automatic system (the elephant) simply responds to stimuli around it and forms judgments and preferences based on what it perceives. And, in a pure contest of wills, the automatic system will nearly always beat the controlled system (the rider). The key is to change the stimuli in your environment into those that will produce desires whose pursuit and fulfillment will lead to true satisfaction. You can’t master the elephant; but, perhaps, you can change what the elephant sees.

The elephant determines our likes and dislikes, often in ways that we’re not consciously aware of. These emotional cues color our thinking, causing the elephant to dominate the rider. A perceived threat will make us consciously evaluate all stimuli as possible threats; a rush of sadness will cause us to adopt a more bleak way of looking at the world as a whole. influenced by a genetic predisposition toward happiness or sadness known as the affective style. Even if you have a negative affective style, you can still become happier. Moving to the upper levels of your affective style is akin to taming the elephant and guiding it down a different path. Effective methods for doing this include meditation, cognitive therapy, and serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs).

The Reciprocity Reflex

A key factor that affects our happiness is the strength of our connections to other people. And reciprocity—the phenomenon by which we treat others as we have been treated by them—is one of the strongest ties that bind society together.

But there is a flaw in this. Because reality is filtered through the lens of our mental perceptions, we are vulnerable to deception. Real altruism may not matter as much as behavior that we perceive to be altruistic on the part of others. There is a real advantage for those who can manipulate the reciprocity reflex to appear to be fair, while actually reaping the benefits of being selfish.

And, while we may enjoy pointing out the hypocrisy of others and relish the feeling of moral superiority that it gives us, we are all hypocrites who excel at inventing rationales for why whatever we’re doing is virtuous. This is the rider acting as a sort of chief counsel for the elephant

To pierce through our self-delusions, we must recognize our perceptions for what they are—just perceptions. Stop treating the rider as chief counsel and start taking responsibility for your thoughts and behavior. Look at past conflicts with other people and find where you were wrong. There were probably times where you said hurtful things or violated your own moral code through your actions. Once you’ve done this, you can recalibrate your mental filters and finally disengage from judgment, self-delusion, and attempts to manipulate others.

Our brains evolved to respond to immediate pleasures like food or sex (which both advance species success) with jolts of [restricted term], which serve as a reinforcement mechanism. But the effects of any reinforcement mechanism are immediate and short-lived. The pleasure, instead, comes from the baby steps you take along the way. This is known as the progress principle. As a corollary, no single event is likely to permanently alter your affective style, because you’ll just reach a new plateau. This idea is known as the adaptation principle.

Although some conditions of life are beyond the ability of an individual to alter, there are changes you can make to your life circumstances to bring lasting happiness.

Simple things like reducing exposure to unwanted noise, cutting down on commuting time, improving one’s perceived body deficiencies (like being overweight or being too skinny), and introducing more autonomy in one’s life have been shown to make people happier in the long term. Most of all, meaningful and joyful connections to other people are central to happiness. These are the things we should all strive for.

People are happiest when doing a task that is difficult, but closely aligned to their strengths. For a bodybuilder, this might be lifting a heavy weight; for a violinist, it might be practicing a particularly complex piece of music. Psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi called this state “flow,” or what we might call “being in the zone.”

The key to flow is that you are receiving constant positive feedback; the progress toward the goal sustains you. In flow, the elephant and rider are perfectly synchronized, with the elephant chasing what it wants and the rider guiding it along and spurring it to action.

Attachment theory states that children have two primary needs—safety and exploration.

Research suggests that human beings need some amount of struggle in their lives in order to reach their full potential. People who suffer setbacks, even tragedies like the loss of a loved one, often find new strengths as a result of their experience.

The myth of pure evil is the ultimate self-serving bias, the ultimate form of naive realism. And it is the ultimate cause of most long-running cycles of violence because both sides use it to lock themselves into a Manichaean struggle.

Baumeister found that violence and cruelty have four main causes:

greed/ambition (violence for direct personal gain, as in robbery) sadism (pleasure in hurting people).

greed/ambition explains only a small portion of violence, and sadism explains almost none.

high self-esteem moral idealism.

when someone’s high esteem is unrealistic or narcissistic, it is easily threatened by reality; in reaction to those threats, people—particularly young men—often lash out violently.

Baumeister questions the usefulness of programs that try raise children’s self-esteem directly instead of by teaching them skills they can be proud of.

to really get a mass atrocity going you need idealism—the belief that your violence is a means to a moral end.

the world we live in is not really one made of rocks, trees, and physical objects; it is a world of insults, opportunities, status symbols, betrayals, saints, and sinners. they are a consensual hallucination.

once anger comes into play, people find it extremely difficult to empathize with and understand another perspective.

here’s the trick with reinforcement: It works best when it comes seconds—not minutes or hours—after the behavior.

The elephant works the same way: It feels pleasure whenever it takes a step in the right direction. The elephant learns whenever pleasure (or pain) follows immediately after behavior, but it has trouble connecting success on Friday with actions it took on Monday.

when it comes to goal pursuit, it really is the journey that counts, not the destination.

"the progress principle": Pleasure comes more from making progress toward goals than from achieving them. Shakespeare captured it perfectly: "Things won are done; joy’s soul lies in the doing."

We are bad at “affective forecasting,” that is, predicting how we’ll feel in the future. We grossly overestimate the intensity and the duration of our emotional reactions.

Within a year, lottery winners and paraplegics have both (on average) returned most of the way to their baseline levels of happiness.

Good fortune or bad, you will always return to your happiness setpoint—your brain’s default level of happiness—which was determined largely by your genes.

Only a few activities avoid the adaptation principle:

dependable companionship, which is a basic need; we never fully adapt either to it or to its absence. religious people are happier, on average, than nonreligious people.

THE HAPPINESS FORMULA

Yes, genes explain far more about us than anyone had realized, but the genes themselves often turn out to be sensitive to environmental conditions.

each person has a characteristic level of happiness, but it now looks as though it’s not so much a set point as a potential range or probability distribution.

There really are some external conditions (C) that matter:

Noise.

people who must adapt to new and chronic sources of noise (such as when a new highway is built) never fully adapt. Noise, especially noise that is variable or intermittent, interferes with concentration and increases stress.

Commuting.

Even after years of commuting, those whose commutes are traffic-filled still arrive at work with higher levels of stress hormones.

Lack of control.

Shame.

People who undergo plastic surgery report (on average) high levels of satisfaction with the process, and they even report increases in the quality of their lives and decreases in psychiatric symptoms (such as depression and anxiety)

Relationships.

conflicts in relationships—having an annoying office mate or room-mate, or having chronic conflict with your spouse—is one of the surest ways to reduce your happiness.

in the happiness formula, C is real and some externals matter.

Two different kinds of enjoyment. One is physical or bodily pleasure. At meal times, people report the highest levels of happiness, on average.

The other is Flow: the state of total immersion in a task that is challenging yet closely matched to one’s abilities.

The keys to flow: There’s a clear challenge that fully engages your attention; you have the skills to meet the challenge; and you get immediate feedback about how you are doing at each step (the progress principle).

In the flow experience, elephant and rider are in perfect harmony.

distinction between pleasures and gratifications: Pleasures are “delights that have clear sensory and strong emotional components.”

Gratifications are activities that engage you fully, draw on your strengths, and allow you to lose self-consciousness.

Seligman proposes that V (voluntary activities) is largely a matter of arranging your day and your environment to increase both pleasures and gratifications

You can find out your strengths by taking an online test at www.authentichappiness.org.

people experienced longer-lasting improvements in mood from the kindness and gratitude activities than from those in which they indulged themselves.

Choose your own gratifying activities, do them regularly (but not to the point of tedium), and raise your overall level of happiness.

Activities connect us to others; objects often separate us.

“consume” more family time, vacations, and other enjoyable activities.

“Paradox of Choice”: We value choice and put ourselves in situations of choice, even though choice often undercuts our happiness.

paradox mostly applies to people they call “maximizers”

“satisficers”—are more laid back about choice. They evaluate an array of options until they find one that is good enough, and then they stop looking. Satisficers are not hurt by a surfeit of options.

two kinds of love: passionate and companionate.

Passionate love is the love you fall into.

companionate love, in contrast, as “the affection we feel for those with whom our lives are deeply intertwined.”

if passionate love is a drug—literally a drug—it has to wear off eventually.

Passionate love and companionate love are two separate processes, and they have different time courses.

True love, the love that undergirds strong marriages, is simply strong companionate love, with some added passion, between two people who are firmly committed to each other.

people need obligations and constraints to provide structure and meaning to their lives

Having strong social relationships strengthens the immune system, extends life (more than does quitting smoking), speeds recovery from surgery, and reduces the risks of depression and anxiety disorders.

Psychologists often approach personality by measuring basic traits such as the “big five”: neuroticism, extroversion, openness to new experiences, agreeableness (warmth/niceness), and conscientiousness

psychologist Dan McAdams has suggested that personality really has three levels, and too much attention has been paid to the lowest level, the basic traits.

second level of personality, “characteristic adaptations,” includes personal goals, defense and coping mechanisms, values, beliefs, and life-stage concerns (such as those of parenthood or retirement) that people develop to succeed in their particular roles and niches.

The third level of personality is that of the “life story.” The life story is written primarily by the rider.

You create your story in consciousness as you interpret your own behavior, and as you listen to other people’s thoughts about you. It is more like a work of historical fiction that makes plenty of references to real events and connects them by dramatizations and interpretations that might or might not be true to the spirit of what happened.

Most of the life goals that people pursue at the level of “characteristic adaptations” can be sorted—as the psychologist Robert Emmons has found—into four categories:

work and achievement relationships and intimacy religion and spirituality generativity (leaving a legacy and contributing something to society).

People who strive primarily for achievement and wealth are, Emmons finds, less happy, on average, than those whose strivings focus on the other three categories

At the third level of personality, the need for adversity is even more obvious: You need interesting material to write a good story.

people who are mentally healthy and happy have a higher degree of “vertical coherence” among their goals. Higher-level (long term) goals and lower-level (immediate) goals all fit together well so that pursuing one’s short-term goals advances the pursuit of long-term goals.

When a crisis strikes, people cope in three primary ways:

active coping (taking direct action to fix the problem), reappraisal (doing the work within—getting one’s own thoughts right and looking for silver linings) avoidance coping

You have to use words, and the words have to help you create a meaningful story.

If you are a pessimist:

consider meditation, cognitive therapy, or even Prozac. The second step is to cherish and build your social support network. Third, religious faith and practice can aid growth, both by directly fostering sense making and by increasing social support

And finally, no matter how well or poorly prepared you are when trouble strikes, at some point in the months afterwards, pull out a piece of paper and start writing.

Pennebaker suggests34 that you write continuously for fifteen minutes a day, for several days. Don’t edit or censor yourself; Before you conclude your last session, be sure you have done your best to answer these two questions: Why did this happen? What good might I derive from it?

these ancient texts rely heavily on maxims and role models rather than proofs and logic. When moral instruction triggers emotions, it speaks to the elephant as well as the rider.

many ancient texts emphasize practice and habit rather than factual knowledge.

THE VIRTUES OF POSITIVE PSYCHOLOGY Peterson and Seligman suggest that there are twenty-four principle character strengths, each leading to one of the six higher-level virtues.

strengths test (at www.authentichappiness.org).

• Wisdom:
  • Curiosity
  • Love of learning
  • Judgment
  • Ingenuity
  • Emotional intelligence
  • Perspective
• Courage:
  • Valor
  • Perseverance
  • Integrity
• Humanity:
  • Kindness
  • Loving
• Justice: • Citizenship • Fairness • Leadership
• Temperance: • Self-control • Prudence • Humility
• Transcendence: • Appreciation of beauty and excellence • Gratitude • Hope • Spirituality • Forgiveness • Humor • Zest

Here’s my favorite idea: Work on your strengths, not your weaknesses

[In Haidt’s class] the final project is to make yourself a better person, using all the tools of psychology, and then prove that you have done so. the most successful ones usually either use cognitive behavioral therapy on themselves (it really does work!) or employ a strength, or both.

Liberals are right to work for a society that is open to people of every demographic group, but conservatives might be right in believing that at the same time we should work much harder to create a common, shared identity.

The computer metaphor has so pervaded our thought that we sometimes think about people as computers, and about psychotherapy as the repair shop or a kind of reprogramming. But people are not computers, and they usually recover on their own from almost anything that happens to them.

think a better metaphor is that people are like plants.

If people are like plants, what are the conditions we need to flourish?

Vital engagement does not reside in the person or in the environment; it exists in the relationship between the two.

People are multilevel systems in another way: We are physical objects (bodies and brains) from which minds somehow emerge; and from our minds, somehow societies and cultures form.

To understand ourselves fully we must study all three levels—physical, psychological, and sociocultural

[People gain a sense of meaning when their lives cohere across the three levels of their existence](/cohesion).

Some of those conditions are within you, such as coherence among the parts and levels of your personality. Other conditions require relationships to things beyond you: Just as plants need sun, water, and good soil to thrive, people need love, work, and a connection to something larger.

But the most important lesson I have learned in my twenty years of research on morality is that nearly all people are morally motivated. Selfishness is a powerful force, particularly in the decisions of individuals, but whenever groups of people come together to make a sustained effort to change the world, you can bet that they are pursuing a vision of virtue, justice, or sacredness.

Each culture develops expertise in some aspects of human existence, but no culture can be expert in all aspects.

liberals are experts in thinking about issues of victimization, equality, autonomy, and the rights of individuals, particularly those of minorities and nonconformists. Conservatives, on the other hand, are experts in thinking about loyalty to the group, respect for authority and tradition, and sacredness.

good place to look for wisdom, therefore, is where you least expect to find it: in the minds of your opponents.

Changing your mind [quote]The whole universe is change and life itself is but what you deem it. —MARCUS AURELIUS[/quote]

[quote]What we are today comes from our thoughts of yesterday, and our present thoughts build our life of tomorrow: our life is the creation of our mind. —BUDDHA[/quote]

The most important idea in pop psychology is contained in the two quotations above: Events in the world affect us only through our interpretations of them, so if we can control our interpretations, we can control our world.

Suppose you read about a pill that you could take once a day to reduce anxiety and increase your contentment. Would you take it? Suppose further that the pill has a great variety of side effects, all of them good: increased self-esteem, empathy, and trust; it even improves memory. Suppose, finally, that the pill is all natural and costs nothing. Now would you take it?

The pill exists. It is meditation.

It sounds easy: Sit still (in most forms) and focus awareness only on your breathing, or on a word, or on an image, and let no other words, ideas, or images arise in consciousness. Meditation is, however, extraordinarily difficult at first, and confronting your repeated failures in the first weeks teaches the rider lessons in humility and patience. The goal of meditation is to change automatic thought processes, thereby taming the elephant. And the proof of taming is the breaking of attachments.

“naive realism”: Each of us thinks we see the world directly, as it really is.

It just seems plain as day, to the naive realist, that everyone is influenced by ideology and self-interest. Except for me. I see things as they are.

If I could nominate one candidate for “biggest obstacle to world peace and social harmony,” it would be naive realism because it is so easily ratcheted up from the individual to the group level: My group is right because we see things as they are. Those who disagree are obviously biased by their religion, their ideology, or their self-interest. Naive realism gives us a world full of good and evil, and this brings us to the most disturbing implication of the sages’ advice about hypocrisy: Good and evil do not exist outside of our beliefs about them.

It turns out that there really are some external conditions (C) that matter. There are some changes you can make in your life that are not fully subject to the adaptation principle, and that might make you lastingly happier. It may be worth striving to achieve them.

Noise. Research shows that people who must adapt to new and chronic sources of noise (such as when a new highway is built) never fully adapt, and even studies that find some adaptation still find evidence of impairment on cognitive tasks. Noise, especially noise that is variable or intermittent, interferes with concentration and increases stress. It’s worth striving to remove sources of noise in your life.

Commuting. Many people choose to move farther away from their jobs in search of a larger house. But although people quickly adapt to having more space, they don’t fully adapt to the longer commute, particularly if it involves driving in heavy traffic. Even after years of commuting, those whose commutes are traffic-filled still arrive at work with higher levels of stress hormones. (Driving under ideal conditions is, however, often enjoyable and relaxing.) It’s worth striving to improve your commute.

Lack of control. One of the active ingredients of noise and traffic, the aspect that helps them get under your skin, is that you can’t control them. Changing an institution’s environment to increase the sense of control among its workers, students, patients, or other users was one of the most effective possible ways to increase their sense of engagement, energy, and happiness.

Shame. Overall, attractive people are not happier than unattractive ones. Yet, surprisingly, some improvements in a person’s appearance do lead to lasting increases in happiness. People who undergo plastic surgery report (on average) high levels of satisfaction with the process, and they even report increases in the quality of their lives and decreases in psychiatric symptoms (such as depression and anxiety) in the years after the operation.

Relationships. The condition that is usually said to trump all others in importance is the strength and number of a person’s relationships. Good relationships make people happy, and happy people enjoy more and better relationships than unhappy people.

The keys to flow: There’s a clear challenge that fully engages your attention; you have the skills to meet the challenge; and you get immediate feedback about how you are doing at each step (the progress principle). You get flash after flash of positive feeling with each turn negotiated, each high note correctly sung, or each brushstroke that falls into the right place. In the flow experience, elephant and rider are in perfect harmony. The elephant (automatic processes) is doing most of the work, running smoothly through the forest, while the rider (conscious thought) is completely absorbed in looking out for problems and opportunities, helping wherever he can.

Pleasures are “delights that have clear sensory and strong emotional components,” such as may be derived from food, sex, backrubs, and cool breezes. Gratifications are activities that engage you fully, draw on your strengths, and allow you to lose self-consciousness. Gratifications can lead to flow. Seligman proposes that V (voluntary activities) is largely a matter of arranging your day and your environment to increase both pleasures and gratifications. Pleasures must be spaced to maintain their potency. Here’s where the rider has an important role to play: Because the elephant has a tendency to overindulge, the rider needs to encourage it to get up and move on to another activity.

Pleasures should be both savored and varied.

Pleasure feels good in the moment, but sensual memories fade quickly, and the person is no wiser or stronger afterwards. But gratifications are different. Gratifications ask more of us; they challenge us and make us extend ourselves. Gratifications often come from accomplishing something, learning something, or improving something. When we enter a state of flow, hard work becomes effortless. We want to keep exerting ourselves, honing our skills, using our strengths. Seligman suggests that the key to finding your own gratifications is to know your own strengths.

So V (voluntary activity) is real, and it’s not just about detachment. You can increase your happiness if you use your strengths, particularly in the service of strengthening connections—helping friends, expressing gratitude to benefactors.

How to Benefit from Adversity

When a crisis strikes, people cope in three primary ways: active coping (taking direct action to fix the problem), reappraisal (doing the work within—getting one’s own thoughts right and looking for silver linings), and avoidance coping (working to blunt one’s emotional reactions by denying or avoiding the events, or by drinking, drugs, and other distractions). People who have a basic-level trait of optimism (McAdams’s level 1) tend to develop a coping style (McAdams’s level 2) that alternates between active coping and reappraisal. Because optimists expect their efforts to pay off, they go right to work fixing the problem. But if they fail, they expect that things usually work out for the best, and so they can’t help but look for possible benefits. When they find them, they write a new chapter in their life story (McAdams’s level 3), a story of continual overcoming and growth. In contrast, people who have a relatively negative affective style (complete with more activity in the front right cortex than the front left) live in a world filled with many more threats and have less confidence that they can deal with them. They develop a coping style that relies more heavily on avoidance and other defense mechanisms. They work harder to manage their pain than to fix their problems, so their problems often get worse. Drawing the lesson that the world is unjust and uncontrollable, and that things often work out for the worst, they weave this lesson into their life story where it contaminates the narrative.

Anyone, therefore, can benefit from adversity, although a pessimist will have to take some extra steps, some conscious, rider-initiated steps, to guide the elephant gently in the right direction. The first step is to do what you can, before adversity strikes, to change your cognitive style. If you are a pessimist, consider meditation, cognitive therapy, or even Prozac.

The second step is to cherish and build your social support network. Having one or two good attachment relationships helps adults as well as children (and rhesus monkeys) to face threats. Trusted friends who are good listeners can be a great aid to making sense and finding meaning. Third, religious faith and practice can aid growth, both by directly fostering sense making (religions provide stories and interpretive schemes for losses and crises) and by increasing social support (religious people have relationships through their religious communities, and many have a relationship with God).

And finally, no matter how well or poorly prepared you are when trouble strikes, at some point in the months afterwards, pull out a piece of paper and start writing. Write about what happened, how you feel about it, and why you feel that way. Before you conclude your last session, be sure you have done your best to answer these two questions: Why did this happen? What good might I derive from it?

If people are like plants, what are the conditions we need to flourish? In the happiness formula, H(appiness) = S(etpoint) + C(onditions) + V(oluntary activities), what exactly is C? The biggest part of C is love. No man, woman, or child is an island. We are ultrasocial creatures, and we can’t be happy without having friends and secure attachments to other people. The second most important part of C is having and pursuing the right goals, in order to create states of flow and engagement. In the modern world, people can find goals and flow in many settings, but most people find most of their flow at work.

1. Think long term
   • To calculate weekly expense compounded over 10 years, multiply the price by 752
   • For a monthly expense, multiply by 173
     • ie: $100/mo phone plan - $1200/yr and $17,300 every 10yrs
     • Sacrifice high consumption today for financial independence tomorrow
2. Live well below your means
   • Frugality is probably the number 1 things most wealthy people have in common. Especially before they become rich.
   • Many millionaires live on something around 10% of income.
   • ie: Student living on 50k: you should rent and only real expense (car) should be less than $5,000.
3. Know that financial independence is more important than displaying status
   • Leasing a car means you cannot afford it.
   • Stop trying to appear wealthy - it is better to become wealthy
4. Allocate your time, energy, and money towards building wealth
5. Have more than 1 source of income
   • Average millionaire has 7 sources of income:
     1. Earned income (salary)
     2. Profit income (business profit)
     3. Rental income (own some real estate)
     4. Royalty/patents income (depends on business)
     5. Capital gain income
     6. Dividend (4% every year on average in index funds)
     7. Interest (lending money to someone else)

Mortimer J. Adler and Charles Van Doren, the authors of How to Read a Book, suggest you write an analytical book review that follows these four rules once you’ve finished reading:

1. Classify the book according to subject matter.
2. State what the whole book is about. Be as brief as possible.
3. List the major parts in order and relation. Outline these parts as you have outlined the whole.
4. Define the problem or problems the author is trying to solve.

Posted: [2024-01-24 Wed]

How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie

Fundamental Techniques in Handling People

• Don't criticize, condemn or complain.
• Give honest and sincere appreciation.
• Arouse in the other person an eager want.

Six ways to make people like you

• Become genuinely interested in other people.
• Smile.
• Remember that a person's name is to that person the sweetest and most important sound in any language.
• Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves.
• Talk in terms of the other person's interests.
• Make the other person feel important - and do it sincerely.

Win people to your way of thinking

• The only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it.
• Show respect for the other person's opinions. Never say, "You're wrong."
• If you are wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.
• Begin in a friendly way.
• Get the other person saying "yes, yes" immediately.
• Let the other person do a great deal of the talking.
• Let the other person feel that the idea is his or hers.
• Try honestly to see things from the other person's point of view.
• Be sympathetic with the other person's ideas and desires.
• Appeal to the nobler motives.
• Dramatize your ideas.
• Throw down a challenge.

Be a Leader: How to Change People Without Giving Offense or Arousing Resentment

• A leader's job often includes changing your people's attitudes and behavior. Some suggestions to accomplish this:
• Begin with praise and honest appreciation.
• Call attention to people's mistakes indirectly.
• Talk about your own mistakes before criticizing the other person.
• Ask questions instead of giving direct orders.
• Let the other person save face.
• Praise the slightest improvement and praise every improvement. Be "hearty in your approbation and lavish in your praise."
• Give the other person a fine reputation to live up to.
• Use encouragement. Make the fault seem easy to correct.
• Make the other person happy about doing the thing you suggest.

The first is that when people make decisions about others, they often base this decision on only one aspect of the person and not the whole. Unfortunately this is where people can be manipulated and led astray. The second idea relates to the necessity of automatic responses. Despite the risk of falling victim to those trying to exploit automatic responses, these responses are necessary to handle the demands of modern life. Because technology only increases the demands upon our mental energy, we need to be able to rely on these automatic responses to lead us in the right direction

Influencers of Persuasion:

1. Weapons of influence (aka reason why)
   • Using Why: Attaching a reason to a request increases the success rate: "I have 5 pages, can I use the Xerox machine before you because I’m in a rush" had a success rate of 94% vs.60% success rate when no ‘reason why’ was given.
   • Comparisons: Showing potential customers the most expensive item first then working downwards in price leads to an increase in the amount spent (as the next products seem cheaper in comparison)
2. Reciprocation
   • Social obligations: Humans inherently dislike being indebted to someone, so much so that often a small gift or favour will lead to a larger reciprocal response. This fact is exploited worldwide, e.g. Hare Krishna’s who offer a ‘gift’ of a flower when soliciting for donations (which they refuse to take back). As the receiver cannot unburden themselves from the subconscious debt, the social pressure to donate leads to a higher donation rate than merely soliciting alone. An Indian supermarket sold £1000 of cheese in a few hours by inviting customers to slice their own free samples.
   • Reject & Retreat: This technique consists of first demanding a high price (or a large favour), then waiting for it to be rejected, only to follow this demand up with a smaller one, (that you really wanted all along). Quote from a child: ‘If you want a kitten, first ask for a pony’ (Ed).
   • Examples:
     • If someone buys you lunch, you feel obligated to buy them lunch next time.
     • At the supermarket, or a warehouse club like Costco, “free” samples encourage the reciprocity rule when they make you buy something you wouldn’t have otherwise.
     • For the ladies, if a guy takes you out to an expensive dinner, you feel obligated to go out with him again even though you weren’t that into him.
3. Commitment & Consistency
   • We tend to remain consistent to our commitments, once we have made them (consistency is a socially attractive trait). Studies found that when people are asked if they would vote led to an increased likelihood to follow-through. This is why it is recommended to write down/verbally state our goals, as we then stand a much greater chance of sticking to them (cf http://www.stickk.com - Ed)
   • Households were called and asked to predict what they would do if they were asked to volunteer for three hours to collect for charity. Three days later, they were recalled and asked to collect for charity. This led to an increase in the numbers of volunteers by 700%. Its use in business was put succinctly by an article in American Salesman. “When a person has signed an order for your merchandise, even though the profit is small, he is no longer a prospect - he is a customer”
   • Living up to our identity - “We are what we repeatedly do”- Aristotle. We will act in ways that are consistent with our identity, beliefs and values. American POW’s in Korea who were made into collaborators, started co-operating when they were labelled and classed themselves as a collaborator.
   • Some examples:
     • Maintaining your religious affiliation, even though there isn’t a shred of evidence that confirms what you believe is in any way true.
     • You stay married, even though divorce may be the best option, because you’ve made a public commitment “til death do us part”.
     • You’ve made it public knowledge that you believe President Obama was born in Kenya and continue to bring up the issue, even though there is substantial evidence indicating he was in fact born in Hawaii.
     • You tell everyone you’re running your 1st marathon in 3 months. The public announcement, or what I call “forced accountability,” will motivate you to be more consistent in your training so you hit your goal.
4. Social proof
   • People are influenced by what others do. At an unfamiliar event or situation, we look to others on the correct etiquette. This is exploited for example, in bars or at church collections. The tips/donations are sometimes ‘salted’ by having money already placed there or having a stooge give money to stimulate others to tip. This effect is amplified by how similar the person whose actions we are watching are to ourselves.
   • For example:
     • You’re at a bar and your 4 friends order margaritas, so you do the same.
     • You start wearing your jeans really low because all your friends are doing it.
     • You laugh at a joke because your friends are laughing, but you don’t even get it.
     • You see everyone else staring up at the sky, so you look up too (works every time).
5. Liking
   • As a rule, we prefer to say yes to the request of those we like over those we don’t. There are several key properties that determine our view of people: Attractiveness, similarity, compliments, contact & co-operation, conditioning and association. Studies found we automatically attribute traits such as talent, kindness, honesty and intelligence to attractive people. It is no co-incidence that ‘attractive’ political candidates received two and a half times the votes of unattractive rivals.
   • We like people who are similar to us, with the same views, interests, beliefs and values. We therefore need to find areas of shared interest to increase rapport and connection.
   • Joe Girard won for twelve years straight the title of ‘Number one salesman’, selling on average five cars or trucks a day. His formula behind his success was simple; he provided a fair price, and someone they like to buy from. One of his key tactics however was to employ the use of compliments. Every month he sent every one of his 13,000 former customers a holiday greeting card containing a personal message. The holiday greeting changed from month to month (Happy New Year, Happy Easter etc.), but the message printed on the face of the card never varied. It only read ‘I like you’.
   • Endless chain - When a salesman approaches the person recommended, saying “your friend recommended this for you” it increases the chance they will make a purchase. Turning the salesman away is difficult as it’s like rejecting one’s friend.
   • factors that cause one person to like another person:
     • Physical Attractiveness: Want to know why Kim Kardashian has almost 10 Million (https://www.facebook.com/KimKardashian ) ‘likes’ on Facebook, her own reality show and a clothing line at Sears?? Sorry, it’s not because she’s super smart or talented — it’s mostly because she’s super hot and dresses really well. And since she’s super hot and dresses really well, people like her and want to be associated with her.
     • Similarity: We like people who are similar to us, whether it’s sharing opinions, personality traits, background, lifestyle, etc.
       • A good example are the cliques that form in high school: athletes, nerds, band geeks, etc. — everyone found a group they associated with the most. And if you were a total social outcast, you probably associated with other outcasts.
       • We see the same dynamic within agencies: Planners hang out with Planners, Creatives hang out with Creatives, and so on.
     • Compliments: We generally love getting compliments, even if they’re not true. Of course, YOU wouldn’t fall for it. I mean, you’re incredibly smart and fun to be around. Did I mention the fact that you’re insanely good-looking? Yes, YOU!!
     • Contact: We like things that are familiar to us. On the other hand, we often fear what we don’t know.
       • Some examples:
     • Contact is one reason people try to eat at the same restaurants over and over and over again instead of trying a new place.
     • Contact is also why African-American voters overwhelmingly voted for Obama in his presidential election and why presidential candidates are most likely to win in their home states. Because they’re familiar and “closer to home.”
     • You find out the new girl at work was in the same school. And loves Adele! And cupcakes!! Guess what? You just became BFFs!!
     • Cooperation: Cooperation works a little differently. We also like people who work with us, instead of against us. Working together towards a common goal and being “on the same side” are very powerful.
     • Examples:
       • It helps us understand why “Yes We Can” worked so well as a unifying slogan for the 2008 Obama campaign.
       • You work together on a new business pitch
       • Sports teams
       • We see this all the time in reality shows, like the tribes or alliances formed in “Survivor” or the “Real Word/Road Rules Challenge.”
   • Conditioning & Association: “All things being equal, you root for your own sex, your own culture, your own locality…and what you want to prove is that YOU are better than the other person. Whomever you root for represents YOU; and when he wins, YOU win.” — Isaac Asimov
     • The principle of Association “…is a general one, governing both negative and positive connections. An innocent association with either bad things or good things will influence how people feel about us.”
     • Examples:
       • Ever notice how people says “WE won!!” when their team wins, but they say “THEY lost!!” when their team loses??
       • Of course, it’s the same idea with brands: Starbucks, Apple, Coach, etc. We buy these brands largely because of the Association rule.
       • The same rule applies to name droppers, who want you to know who they know (did I mention my neighbors in high school were Das EFX? I didn’t? Oh, ok. No big deal.).
6. Authority
   • The greater the perceived authority of a person, the more likely people are to comply (cf the Stanley Milgram experiments).
   • Hospitals have a 12% daily error rate. This is because, nurses and junior doctors will very rarely challenge the decision made by an authoritative figure, despite receiving potentially lethal, or bizarre requests.
   • We often perceive and interact with people with authority differently. The more power a person is deemed to have, the more generous people are when estimating their height, and the more cautious we are with our conversations.
   • Examples:
     • Policemen, firemen, clergy, office managers, etc.
     • Titles (PhD, Esq, MBA, etc.)
     • The way people are dressed (Ex: 3-piece suit vs. tank top and board shorts). Con artists exploit this rule all the time, like Leonardo DiCaprio in “Catch Me If You Can.”
     • In Advertising, we see this principle at play in celebrity endorsements.
7. Scarcity
   • We are more motivated to act if we think we are going to lose something, than if we are to gain something. ‘Save £50 a month on…’ would not be as effective as ‘You are losing £50 a month on…’. An item that is scarce is more desirable than one that is freely available.
   • The high pressure environment, like an auction can lead an item being sold for an elevated price as the buyers fear losing out to another person.
   • Examples:
     • Limited time offers — A certain product is in short supply that cannot be guaranteed to last long (like Missoni at Target several months ago or Tickle Me Elmo several years ago).
     • Deadlines — An official time limit is placed on the customer’s opportunity to get the offer. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are great examples.
     • Another variant of the deadline tactic is when you’re told that you have to buy NOW or the price will go up very soon (Ex: health club memberships, buying a car, etc.).

Highlights:

• Change your defaults to change your life.
• Focus on one important thing per day – your highlight.
• Block Infinity Pools – online places with endless replenishing information.

5 Key Lessons from Make Time: How to Focus on What Matters Every Day:

1. Lesson #1: We Spent Most of Our Time Responding To The Defaults
   • The two forces that force you to be busy:
     • The Busy Bandwagon: Currently, everyone in our society believes that in order to become successful in life you need to fill every breathing minute of your time with to-dos – more meetings, more emails, more networking. Checking email and responding to requests shouldn’t be avoided, it should be anticipated.
     • The Infinity Pools: The authors call Infinity Pools all the sources of endless replenishing information that aim to keep you inside for as long as possible – imagine social media websites.
2. Lesson #2: Start Your Day With One High-Priority Goal
   • Pick a highlight for every one of your days that’s either important, meaningful, or brings you joy.
     • What needs to get done? (urgency)
       • Important. What’s an absolutely necessary activity or project? From a client presentation to your kid’s soccer game, this should make you feel like you took care of your duties once you complete it.
     • What do I want to get done? (satisfaction)
       • Meaningful. What will make you the most satisfied? Writing a page for your novel? Starting a market research group at work? This is about prioritizing something you technically don’t need to do, but really want to. It’s for yourself.
     • What do I like to do? (joy)
       • Joyful. Sometimes, you need to just goof off to find your inner child again. Maybe it’ll be a massage, an hour of guitar lessons, or a spontaneous trip into the mountains. This highlight is for the soul.
   • Prioritize your life: Not quite sure what life is all about? You lack meaning and purpose? Make a list of the things that matter in your life. Think about what’s most meaningful to you (but will also be beneficial) and focus on the important tasks that will help you make progress.
   • Write it down: As obvious as it sounds, writing your main task for the day is the first thing you need to do. By putting our goal on paper we increase the likelihood of accomplishing it. Once you have it on paper you can glue it on your forehead or give it to your wife so she can later keep you accountable.
   • Groundhog it: It’s a new day and you’re not quite sure what to do? Repeat yesterday. If you’re a writer this will be pretty obvious – simply write. For other industries, it can be a bit more difficult (launching rockets) to do the same as yesterday but you surely can find something related to what was important the day before.
   • Design your day: If you want to get shit done you need to design your day around your highlight. This means that you should first schedule time to accomplish your priority for the day. Then, everything else gets planned.
   • Bulldoze your calendar and say no: Rarely things go as we planned. Something happens and then something else happens. Eventually, you end up responding to emails and watching Netflix. When your calendar looks like a shopping mall in the middle of a Black Friday sale – crowded and chaotic – see what you can ditch. As the authors write, “Imagine a tiny bulldozer driving through your calendar, pushing events around.” Re-arrange things to find the time. If this doesn’t work out – just say no to the unimportant tasks.
3. Lesson #3: Stay Laser-Focused and Away from the Always-Connected World
   • When it comes to ensuring laser-focus on your highlight, here are some things you can do:
     • Delete social media and email apps from your phone.
     • Log out of social media accounts online to give yourself more time to consider using them when you go there.
     • Check the news once a week instead of multiple times a day.
4. Lesson #4: Use Your Body To Energize Your Brain
   • All it takes is adding small bursts of primal behavior back into our day.
     • This starts with a natural, light diet, where you don’t overindulge on fat, artificial foods.
     • You can also adjust your sleep to be closer to the rhythm of daylight,
     • focus on short, but high-quality social interactions,
     • ensure you walk 10,000 steps a day – or at least walk repeatedly during the day
5. Lesson #5: Take Time to Reflect On What Worked and What Didn’t
   • Instructions for a Simple Daily Journal
     • In the morning, decide what your highlight will be and write it down
     • At the end of the day, reflect on the progress you made towards that highlight. Track:
     • If you made time for your highlight.
     • Your level of focus for the day.
     • Your energy level for the day.
     • If you are experimenting with different tactics, which did you try and did it work?
     • What new tactic do you want to try (or retry the same tactic) tomorrow?

• Backing up is not backing down
• Fear is OK, complacency is what will kill you.
• Build relationships. Networking can save your life
• Everyone must be a leader
• Take action based on the situation
• A single person's poor judgement can bring down the entire team
• Calm does not mean safe
• You don't need much clarity to put one foot in front of another
• A lack of failure tolerance forces people to avoid risks, etc
• Be relentless

Plan Ahead to move an organization

• P - Predetermine a course of action
• L - Lay out your goals
• A - Adjust your priorities
• N - Notify key personnel
• A - Allow time for acceptance
• H - Head into action
• E - Expect problems
• A - Always point to successes
• D - Daily review your plan

From 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership by John Maxwell

Use Expected Value to make decisions:

• Probability of success x Reward > Probability of failure x Penalty
  • ie: Taking an umbrella with 40% chance of rain

Leading people: People want to matter - they want to make a contribution that matters - demonstrate you value them

Leadership Behaviors to make a difference:

1. Demonstate respect
2. Listen first
3. Clarify expectations
4. Practice accountability

People + Process = Success

• Take risks at being remarkable, and don’t worry about criticism.
• Target the people who are both willing to try new things and very vocal at spreading the word to others.
• Invent the product with marketing.
• Target and measure your marketing effectively.
• Don’t emulate the leader, because you’ll never learn the process of turning risks into success.
• The traditional form of advertising is no longer effective because in today’s overwhelmingly advertised world capturing the consumer’s attention is almost impossible.
• In today’s crowded marketplace, there is no room for “ordinary.”
• Being ridiculed can be a good thing, as it spreads word about you and your product.

Money Blueprint

T –> F –> A –> = R

• Thoughts lead to feelings, leads to actions, leads to results.
• Therefore thoughts trickle to results. Change the roots of your thoughts and the fruits of your actions will soon follow.
• Your financial blueprint (plan for how money will come and go in your life, what your future will look like, financially) is a combination of thoughts, feelings, and actions.
• But really there is a pre-programming that occurs in your early life/ upbringing that come from three influences:
  1. verbal (what is said around you about money),
  2. modeling (what you saw while you were raised), and
  3. specific incidents (experiences).

P –> T –> F –> A –> = R

• Programming influences thoughts which lead to feelings, leads to actions, leads to results.
• [Note: "When the subconscious mind must choose between deeply rooted emotions and logic, emotions will almost always win."]
• There is an actual dollar amount for which many of us are programmed (and this can cause limitation).

17 "Wealth Files"

Ways that Rich people (extreme stereotype) think/act differently from middle-class and poor/broke people (extreme stereotype). The thought it commit these to memory so that you have them to draw from when struggling or facing an unwanted, pre-programmed thought emerging. There are also exercises that put the material into practice, but I'll skip those for now; if someone wants them, PM me or get the book.

• Rich people believe "I create my life." (vs poor: "Life happens to me." Play the role of the victim, justify their circumstances, complain). There is no such thing as a really rich victim.
• Rich people play the money game to win (vs poor: just don't lose - have enough to pay the bills, or to be comfortable). Goal of rich is to have massive wealth and abundance.
• Rich people are committed ("to devote oneself unreservedly") to being rich (vs. poor: want to be rich, but have negative thoughts of rich). "The number one reason most people don't get what they want is that they don't know what they want." Rich are fully committed; will do whatever legal, moral, ethical thing that it takes to have wealth.
• Rich people think BIG (vs poor: small). The Law of Income: You will be paid in direct proportion to the value you deliver according to the marketplace. Your life is not only about you; it is also about contributing to others.
• Rich people focus on opportunities (vs poor: obstacles). "Rich take responsibility for the results in their lives and act upon the mindset, 'It will work because I will make it work.' " Expect to succeed. Take educated risks; do research without stalling. Focus on what you want; focus on all opportunities.
• Rich people admire other rich and successful people (vs poor: resent them). Your opinions make no difference about the wealth others have; they are dis-empowering you. Try on these characteristics: positive, reliable, focused, determined, persistent, hardworking, energetic, good with people, competent communicator, semi-intelligent, expert in at least one area. "Bless that which you want."
• Rich people associate with positive, successful people (vs poor: negative & unsuccessful). The fastest and easiest way to create wealth is to learn from rich people. Energy is contagious: either affect or infect others & visa versa.
• Rich people are willing to promote themselves and their value (vs poor: negatively view selling). Willing to promote oneself, products, services, and ideas - with passion and enthusiasm. Rich people are usually leaders and great leaders are great promoters. Leaders earn more than followers. You need to believe in your own value and what you have to offer people.
• Rich people are bigger than their problems (vs poor: smaller & try to avoid problems). Secret to success is to grow yourself so that you are bigger than any problem. To move to the next level of success, become conscious of what is going on in your life; don't focus on the problem, focus on the size of you. The bigger problems you can handle, the bigger business, more employees, more responsibility, the more money & wealth you can handle. Focus on the goal. If you are unstoppable, anything and everything is available to you; choose it.
• Rich people are excellent receivers (vs poor: poor receivers). Your feelings of unworthiness won't prevent you from getting rich; worthiness is just a "story." "If you say you're worthy, you are." Giving and receiving are two sides of the same coin (so "giving is better than receiving"–NO).; for every giver there must be a receiver. Not receiving can actually deny the giver of joy and pleasure. Rich people are more willing to receive. Rain doesn't care who gets it, neither does money. Rich believe in being well-rewarded for their efforts. "Money will make you more of what you already are."
• Rich people choose to get paid based on results (vs poor: based on time). "There's nothing wrong with getting a steady paycheck, unless it interferes with your ability to earn what you're worth." Rich people believe in themselves and their ability to deliver. Never have a ceiling to your income.
• Rich people think 'both' (vs poor: either/or). Rich people live in a world of abundance, the best of both worlds (even if it takes a little creativity). You can have your cake and eat it too. Money can be used over and over (passed on, maybe, but not depleted).
• Rich people focus on their net worth (vs poor: working income). Millionaires ask & talk about net worth, financial value of everything you own, not "how much do you make?" Huge distinction - four net worth factors: 1. Income, working or passive; 2. Savings, keep some to actually create wealth; 3. Investments, the better you are, the faster your money will grow; 4. Simplification, consciously create a lifestyle with a lower cost of living so more is available for saving and investing. "Where attention goes, energy flows, and results show." Track your net worth.
• Rich people manage their money well (vs poor: mismanage money). Wealthy people are not any smarter, have more supportive money habits. Money management promotes financial freedom. The habit of handling is more important the amount you are handling. Practice allocation: 10% into Financial Freedom account (only for investments and passive-income), 10% into "play" account, 10% into Long-Term Savings, 10% into Education (self improvement included), 50% into Necessities (cost of living), 10% into Give.
• Rich people have their money work hard for them (vs poor: work hard for money). Money is energy; you can put in work energy or substitute investment energy to get money energy out of what you put in. "You become financially free when your passive income exceeds your expenses." Rich people think long-term, earning money for their investments to pay for their future. Generally buying for immediate gratification is an attempt to make up for dissatisfaction in life. "Rich people see every dollar as a 'seed' that can be planted to earn a hundred more dollars, which can be replanted to earn a thousand more dollars."
• Rich people act in spite of fear (vs poor: let fear stop them). "Action is the 'bridge' between the inner world and the outer world." Don't wait for fear to subside. "The only time you are actually growing is when you are uncomfortable." Get out of your comfort zone, expand your opportunity zone, to move into a different wealth zone. "Training and managing your own mind if the most important skill you could ever own, in terms of both happiness and success."
• Rich people constantly learn and grow (vs poor: think they already know). "Success is a learnable skill. Rich people understand the order to success is BE, DO, HAVE." Learn from those who have already been where you want to go.

[2024-01-29 Mon 16:09]

• Think inside out (starting with why), not outside in (starting with what). Communicate the why as it fosters a sense of belonging.
• The goal is to do business with people who believe what you believe.
• People don’t buy what you do, they buy why you do it. What you do simply proves what you believe.
• Excited employees and customers who believe in your cause are the most powerful resources an organization can have.
• Financial incentives or punishments do not motivate people on a deep and emotional level.
• Customer manipulation may work in the short term, but it doesn’t foster trust and is ultimately counterproductive.
• The Golden Circle consists of three concentric circles. The what is the outer layer, the how is middle layer, and the why is the core.
• Making profit is a result of the what and the how, not the why.
• The Law of Diffusion on innovation breaks down to 2.5% innovators, 13.5% early adapters, 34% early majority, 34% late majority and 16% laggards. If you want mass-market success, you have to achieve a 15–18% tipping point.
• The early majority won’t accept something until early adapters have tried it and accepted it, and you won’t get early adapters until they believe in what you have.

Important qualities of superforecasters:

• Philosophic Outlook = Cautious, Humble, Nondeterministic
• Thinking Style = Open-Minded, Intelligent and Curious, Reflective, Numerate
• Forecasting Style = Pragmatic, Analytical, Dragonfly-Eyed, Probabilistic, Thoughtful Updaters, Intuitive Psychologist
• Work Ethic = Growth Mindset, Grit

Point of the book is that foresight is a real, measurable skill. It can be taught, and reasonable improvements can be made with fairly minimal investment. Only real problem is overcoming human psychology - people are overconfident in their own predictions and so averse to being wrong that they will sabotage their own measurements by retroactively re-intrepreting predictions.

This is going to be a common theme through all of these notes - the importance of escaping naive realism / what-you-see-is-all-there-is. Feeling right is not the same as actually being right, feeling confident does correlate well with successful predictions, the map is not the territory etc.

Discusses System 1 vs System 2. Covered better in other books, but in short: System 1 is unconscious, fast, effortless, automatic and associative where System 2 is conscious, slow, effortful, sequential and logical. System 1 is the default mode of thinking and runs most of our life but has a number of systematic heuristics/biases/flawes. Since it’s below conscious introspection we can’t notice these directly, only by observing large numbers of mistakes. Activating System 2 takes conscious effort and is tiring, so is only activated when we realize that we need it.

Similarly, because the decisions made by System 1 are below conscious perception we aren’t aware of the reasons for them. Various ingenious experiments demonstrate that, rather than being aware of this lack of introspection, people will generate theories from scratch and believe them to be the original reason ie post-hoc rationalization of System 1 activity.

Main source of naive realism seems to be believing uncritically the data passed up to conscious attention by System 1. Explains why cognitive reflection, mindfulness etc are useful. Similarly, there needs to be some word for the corresponding illusion where people believe that they have full access to their own thought processes when in fact that perception is generated post-hox.

Remember: confidence = coherent story, not confidence = accuracy.

Bait and switch - System 1 often replaces hard questions with easy questions without the thinker noticing. Many biases fit this pattern eg availability bias replaces ‘how likely is X’ with ‘how easily can I imagine X / how many instances of X can I remember’ - reasonable heuristic in many environments but not always correct.

Most predictions are so unspecific that it is hard to judge after the fact whether or not they were correct. In some cases this is deliberate - leaves pundits wiggle room to avoid embarrassment.

Being wrong is unpleasant. Most people, consciously or otherwise, optimize for avoiding appearing wrong. Better to optimize for avoid being wrong. In the latter frame of mind, discovering that you are wrong is a welcome mistake - you get the change to be less wrong.

What makes a good forecast?

It should be completely unambiguous ie it must be easy for observers to agree later on whether or not you were wrong. Ambiguity leaves room to fool yourself. Some prediction sites require each prediction to have a referee, which seems like a useful way to keep yourself honest.

It should have a concrete finish date. Predictions like ‘unemployment will go down after stimulus’ leave too much room to spend years saying ‘any minute now’.

It should be probabilistic. For predictions to be used as the basis for decisions it is important to know what level of confidence is expressed, and to calibrate that confidence it is necessary to practice.

It should use specific numbers for probabilities. Tetlock gives various anecdotes where terrible mistakes were made because different people did not assign the same meaning to phrases like ‘There is a serious possibility that…’, with interpretations ranging from 20% to 80% chance in one case. Also, non-specific language again creates room to wiggle out of wrong predictions.

You should make lots of predictions. Given partial knowledge and probabilistic events, there is no way to judge if your ‘70% chance of rain’ was misinformed or just unlucky. With large numbers of similar predictions we can begin to judge accuracy and calibration.

Well-calibrated: predicted probability == observed probability, across all ranges from 0% to 100%. Overconfidence: prediction probability > observed probability. Possible to be eg well calibrated between 20% and 80% but poorly calibrated at extremes, or vice versa.

Various experiments run with experts in different fields. Two distinct groups emerge. One group does no better than random chance (and sometimes worse). Other group does slightly better than default strategies like ‘predict no change’. Not amazing results, but clearly some foresight exists.

Notable difference between the groups: those with no foresight were dogmatic and convinced of a few Big Ideas whereas those with some foresight were more pragmatic, drew on a range of conceptual tools and weighed many perspectives. Named these groups hedgehogs and foxes after Archilochus “the fox knows many things but the hedgehog knows one big thing”. Foxes won on both calibration and resolution ie they weren’t just playing it safe, they were better at identifying when they had reason to be confident.

Hedgehogs are much more popular across the board. Media likes bold predictions and simple theories. Politicians are frequently quoted as wanting to hear confidence. People dislike uncertainty.

Also common themes to their problem solving process. Fermi estimate -> outside view -> inside view -> synthesis -> loop.

Fermi estimates - rather than just guess, break a problem down into its parts until you reach numbers that are easier to guess accurately. Prevents bait-and-switch by concentrating focus onto the structure of the problem. In probabilistic questions, enforces the correct use of the laws of probability which System 1 systematically misuses.

Gives a long example of using Fermi estimates to predict whether polonium would be found when testing Yasser Arafat’s body, showing how it catches several bait-and-switch moments eg replacing “will polonium be found” with “would Israel poison him”.

Outside view - aka reference-class forecasting - before focusing on the details of the current problem, first obtain a base estimate by averaging over many similar problems. Thought to counter anchoring - a (poorly replicated) bias where guesses can be heavily influenced by completely unrelated numbers. Effective at reminding oneself to account for priors / base-rate. Also perhaps a counter to story-oriented thinking / inaccurate stereotyping?

Inside view. Finally we use the specific details of the problem to adjust the base rate. Have to be sure not to double-count features we already used for our reference class eg if the reference class was families-with-children, can’t reuse the children to adjust the base rate.

Both the outside and inside view get applied to the individual components of the Fermi estimate. Can also use outside view of the problem as a whole to sanity-check results.

Synthesis - finally, try to find other perspectives. This is a counter to confirmation bias and what-you-see-is-all-there-is - trying to account for unknown unknowns. Get fresh perspectives from other people if possible, but even deliberately trying to generate alternate perspectives yourself is useful. Research on creativity and out-of-the-box thinking may be useful here for generating fresh ideas.

Loop - keep going until you are done. No mention of how superforecasters judge when they have generated enough perspectives, viewed enough data etc. Typical overconfidence would lead to finishing too early.

Somewhat aligns with the fact that uncertainty is known to cause stress responses. Alternative just-so story seen elsewhere is that false confidence is useful for convincing other highly-evolved lie detectors - if you don’t even know you are lying about your confidence then you won’t give off subtle signals for others to catch you out.

Easy to demonstrate that people suck at probability. Bad at updating priors. Bad at conditional probabilities. Confuse probability with scores - if >50% it should happen. A flaw I’ve noticed in a lot of otherwise numerate people is confusing the map with the territory - believing that probabilities exist in the world itself rather than being a property of ones partial knowledge of the world. This is the underlying flaw exposed by the Monty Hall problem.

A useful model is to assume that people only have a few settings along the range from impossible to guaranteed. Forecasters who use more settings on the dial (going from nearest 10% to nearest 5% or nearest 1%) are more accurate. Rounding up the answers of superforecasters to the nearest 5% reduces their score, whereas regular forecasters don’t suffer much from rounding even to the nearest 20%, indicating that the granular answers of the superforecasters does actually reflect real information.

Dilution effect - being presented with irrelevant information can weaken our confidence in relevant information. Kinda like the availibility heuristic - replace “what is the confidence” with “how much of the evidence supports it”.

Superforecasters make many small updates to their predictions. While many are aware of Bayes theorem, few of them use it explicitly.

Near-universal agreement that (appearance of) confidence is vital for leadership. But false confidence leads to bad forecasting!

Discusses the shift in military organization begun by the Wehrmacht, from rigid hierarchies to pushing decisions down the chain of command. Communicate information and goals, not orders. Allows correctly responding to new circumstances without needing to wait for new orders. Allow uncertainty about situation but not about decisions.

Distinguishes intellectual humility (maintaining healthy doubt of your own ideas) from self-doubt (doubting your own abilities / attributes). Effectively, recognizing that uncertainty is unavoidable, not a sign of personal flaws.

.

Scope insensitivity - basically forgetting to account for variables. In this experiment, ask forecasters to make same prediction but give them each different time frames. Scope insensitivity predicts that the predictions will not vary enough between the different time frames. Superforecasters showed fair resistance to this bias (giving 15% odds if asked about a three month period vs 24% odds if asked about a six month period).

Postulates that superforecasters run thought experiments, varying variables such as time frame, and that this makes them consciously aware that they have to account for those variables. No evidence, but this seems like a useful habit anyway.

Also postulates that superforecasters are so practiced in engaging System 2 that it comes naturally. Doesn’t explain why calibration doesn’t transfer across fields. Perhaps a finer-grained theory is that they are know which factors are likely to trip them up in their specific field?

Nassim Taleb contends that forecasting is not as useful as it seems because noone can even imagine, let along predict, the Black Swan events that make the largest impact. Tetlock contends that many Black Swan events were imagined in advance, and that there are also plenty of predictable but important changes that shape the world just as much. More importantly, while the occurrence of some events are not predictable, the GJP shows that the consequences often are and this can be important for preparing for them.

The ten commandments of forecasting.

1. Triage. Focus on questions where extra attention is likely to improve accuracy. Not too hard, not too easy. Weigh the consequences of wasting time on an unpredictable event vs failing to predict a predictable event before deciding whether to invest effort on a problem.
2. Break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems ie use Fermi estimates.
3. Strike the right balance between the inside and outside views.
4. Strike the right balance between under- and over-reacting to new evidence.
5. Look for the clashing causal forces at work in each problem. Weigh all the perspectives.
6. Strive to distinguish as many degrees of doubt as the problem permits, but no more ie get comfortable using fine-grained estimates for fine-grained problems.
7. Strike the right balance between under- and over-confidence, between prudence and decisiveness.
8. Look for the errors behind your mistakes but beware of rearview-mirror hindsight biases. Own your failures!
9. Bring out the best in others and let others bring out the best in you. Team dynamics matter as much as team composition.
10. Master the error-balancing bicycle. These commandments are not enough - you need deep, deliberative practice.
11. Don’t treat commandments as commandments.

It’s not surprising that a book which praises foxes ends with a list of tools and suggestions rather than a list of Big Ideas. Notice the number of commandments which are about balancing different ideas.

According to Daniel Kahneman, one of the world’s leading experts on decision making and behavioural psychology, there are three conditions under which it is wise to trust our intuition:

1. The environment is regular, unchanging or slow to change
2. Situations in which we have had a lot of practice
3. We receive immediate and accurate feedback

When faced with tough questions, most people substitute the tough question with an easier one and answer it. Once done, they genuinely believe that they have successfully answered the tough question. This theme of baiting and then switching is very popular but dangerous at the same time. Imagine a game of poker for example. While a beginner can overestimate her cards and bet big, her actions aren’t considered wise even if she gets lucky and wins. On the other hand, a seasoned player can get unlucky and lose even if he has made the right bet. Good investors and players think the same way. They recognize skill because that’s one factor that can improve their judgments over time

Superforecasters are aware of uncertainties, but their confidence also plays a major role here In fact, accuracy and confidence may seem different, but they are correlated. But, as humans, we place so much confidence in this correlation that we exaggerate it unintentionally. This is why some less confident superforecasters aren’t trusted even if they are accurate. History shows that we have always struggled with probability, and whether it is politics or sports, this bias is rampant everywhere.

Superforecasters value fresh evidence even if it means that their previous prediction could be wrong. Belief perseverance can be harmful, especially if you’re trying to predict something, and it can be impossible to sway you if your beliefs are fixed.Generally, it occurs when they are closer to your identity. However, what puts superforecasters apart from regular forecasters is that they know how to distinguish between irrelevant and relevant information. Irrelevant information has the power to weakenyour confidence even if you have all the evidence in front of you and this is known as the dilution effect.

Another important factor that makes superforecasters different is that they possess the growth mindset. Growth mindset is all about believing that you can learn and grow more to your fullest extent. People with fixed mindsets often come up with excuses and rarely find success. However, people with growth mindsets, like the superforecasters, believe that practice can make them better.

There’s no simple paint-by-number method for good forecasts. There are, however, actions that are usually helpful:

• Break the question down into smaller components.
• Identify the known and the unknown.
• Look closely at all of your assumptions.
• Consider the outside view, and frame the problem not as a unique thing but as a variant in a wider class of phenomena.
• Then, look at what it is that makes it unique; look at how your opinions on it are the same or different from other people’s viewpoints.
• Taking in all this information with your dragonfly eyes, construct a unified vision of it; describe your judgement about it as clearly and concisely as you can, being as granular as you can be.

Once a prediction is made, the work isn’t over. Predictions should be updated any time there is additional information, and superforecasters update their predictions more often than other forecasters do. These updated forecasts tend to be more accurate, because the forecaster who is updating more often is likely to be better informed.

It is tricky to update a forecast — one can underreact and one can overreact. Often, when we are confronted with new information, we want to stick to our beliefs regardless of the new evidence. People’s opinions about things can actually be more about their own self-identity than any other thing. Also, the more people who have an emotional investment in something the harder it is to admit one was wrong. Another challenge: once people publicly take a stance on something, it’s hard to get them to change their opinion. But you need to be able to change your opinion when the facts change.

It is also tricky to distinguish important from irrelevant information. Sometimes people think something is important but it’s not, and irrelevant information can confuse and trigger biases. When one doesn’t feel committed to the results, they can overreact; when they are really attached, they can underreact.

The trick is to update a forecast frequently, but, in most cases, make only small adjustments. Sometimes, of course, you need to make a dramatic change. If you are really far off target, incremental change won’t cut it.

The Four Agreements: A Practical Guide To Personal Freedom, by Miguel Ruiz

According to author Miguel Ruiz, four agreements in life are fundamental steps on the path to freedom:

1. Be impeccable with your word.
2. Don’t take anything personally.
3. Don’t make assumptions.
4. Always do your best.

• Aim high so you can create your own reality and write your own rules.
• Step outside of your comfort zone and take action now.
• Try to gain the freedom of remote working within your current job.
• Be effective on the job by working on things with the goal of gaining remote work.
• The 80/20 rule applies with work: 20% of work will bring 80% of results. So, focus on being productive instead of busy.
• Time is money. Remove things that reduce your effectiveness at the job.
• Rate the importance of a task by asking yourself, “If this is the only thing I do today, would I be happy with today?”
• Finish your high priority items before noon.
• Address email and voicemail messages after completing the high priority tasks are done. Then bundle tasks to finish them.
• Have others play by your communication rules.
• Set up an automatic source of income by outsourcing everything. The key is to use as little of your time as possible.
• Have open communication and do not let your input be a requirement in the business process.
• Delegate as much responsibility as possible.
• Validate and test your products before selling. Set up an online store with out-of-stock items and an A/B testing ad campaign.
• Establish credibility in your product category.
• Appear bigger; because people trust larger companies.
• Be picky about your customers. The 20/80 rule applies. Top 20% of your customers will be responsible for 80% of revenue, so attend to them.
• Go premium with your product because premium quality brings higher profit and customer quality.
• Don’t lie to yourself and think that when staying within your comfort zone, things will magically be okay.
• Don’t start your day by checking emails.
• A fulfilling life can be achieved by being mobile and flexible. This means that you can do whatever you like, whenever you like.
• Moderate, automatic income you can manage anywhere around the world allows for the mobility required for the lifestyle you truly want.
• The worst-case scenario from making a decision is usually not as bad as you think.
• Five steps to independence:
  1. start with a full time 9–5 job;
  2. move to a full time remote 9–5 job;
  3. gain efficiency to reduce 9–5 tasks to 9–1;
  4. use other time to automate alternative income;
  5. quit old job and live on alternative income.

Upholders

• Upholders respond well to both expectations from themselves and from others
  • Upholders are excellent at following orders reliably and at maximizing productiveness.
  • Example: Upholders will get 100% of their work done and follow doctor’s orders to a T, but the risk is that they may blindly follow bad rules rather than question them.
• Upholders need clear instructions and patience from others
  • Upholders can get frustrated if they don’t understand what is expected of them and may have difficulty accepting change.
  • Example: If you work with upholders, check in to make sure expectations are clear and be patient in situations that require the upholder to change.

Questioners

• Questioners are excellent at meeting their own goals but may need convincing to work towards others’ goals
  • Questioners often ask why, which means they are excellent innovators, but they are at risk of “analysis paralysis.”
  • Example: A questioner will perform days of research to identify the best washing machine instead of purchasing one quickly based on a friend’s recommendation.
• Questioners need clear justification before they will act, and hate being questioned
  • If you disagree with a questioner, you should be thorough and compelling.
  • Example: A questioner will be much more willing to discuss an issue if you phrase your question as “How did you come to this conclusion?” instead of “Why did you do that?”

Obligers

• Obligers have no trouble living up to external expectations but struggle to meet their own expectations
  • Obligers often make the best workers but they require outside accountability.
  • Example: An obliger with a messy home may purposefully invite people over to create external pressure to clean up because they won’t do it on their own.
• Many obligers feel ashamed they have to resort to others
  • Obligers often repress their own needs, which can hurt self-esteem.
  • Example: Obliger rebellion such as outbursts or acts of sabotage often occur when they become frustrated from helping others too much and failing to meet their own needs.

Rebels

• Rebels reject expectations from others and struggle to help themselves
  • To motivate a rebel, don’t tell them what to do. They must feel they have a choice.
  • Example: When possible, try to offer the rebel different options and explain the consequences of each one.
• Rebels can frustrate themselves
  • Rebels may struggle to consistently exercise because they feel they are conforming.
  • Example: Many rebels respond well to reverse psychology bets like “I bet you can’t eat well for a whole week.”

Conclusion

• Knowing your own and others’ tendencies can help you succeed in all aspects of life
  • Understanding how you and others respond to expectations can help you be strategic.
  • Example: A great leader knows how each person on their team responds to expectations and formulates their approach accordingly.

From: https://www.twominutebooks.com/the-four-tendencies/

Tendencies common in those who struggle with hoarding

1. Do you have a hard time parting with items, even if you never use them or they're broken?
2. Do you have many items around your house that do not have a permanent home?
3. Do you tend to make piles of things to be dealt with at a future time and these piles tend to linger more than a few days?
4. Are there areas in your home that must be cleared off before use of their intended purpose (like dining room table)?
5. Do you save things often because you are concerned about how you will feel if you need them in the future and no longer have them
6. Do you often save things without a clear idea of how you will use them in the future?
7. Do you still have items you once bought with the intention of giving them away as gifts?
8. Do you have boxes of possessions that have moved with you from home to home but you hvae never gone through?
9. Do you often buy multiples of the same item because you forgot you have it?
10. Are you helpless when faced with a good deal even if it is a good deal on something you don't need?
11. Do you take free things that you never wind up using?

Helpful things to say to a clutterer:

1. I know this is hard for you
2. Let me know how I can help
3. You don't have to fix this problem overnight
4. Let's find ways to simplify the process
5. Don't look at the big picture, take baby steps
6. When you get overwhelmed, take a break and remember the goal is to live a healthier life
7. We are a team
8. Help me understand where you have the most difficulty
9. What things are important to you in your home
10. Let me know how I can best support you - you are in charge of how this process of decluttering goes

Ways clutter can cause stress:

1. It's hard to locate the things you need when you need them
2. Being unable to locate important papers can result in major setbacks and financial penalties
3. Arguments over mess can strain your relationships with family members
4. You spend money on things you already own because you forgot you have them or cannot find them
5. Looking at a pile of bills or any mess is a reminder of chores that need to be done
6. A cluttered bedroom is difficult to relax in and can affect the quality of your sleep your intimate life
7. Keeping too many reminders from your past can distract you from living in the present
8. A cluttered room can overstimulate your senses and can cause you to feel anxious or unable to relax
9. Having to move things around in order to use your space effectively, like clearing off the table, wastes time and creates extra work
10. Reluctance to invite people into your home because it isn't neat can lead to social isolation

Remember: It's not a good deal, no matter how inexpensive it is, if you are not going to use it, if you already have something like it at home, or if it takes up space.

Ways to avoid bringing more clutter into your home

1. Don't fall for freebie's
2. Shop for your goal - remember your long-term goal to resist impulse shopping
3. Shop the perimeter - The items you truly need are usually on the outer isles
4. Stick with your brand - If you like your phone, there is no need to try out a competitor
5. Give away gifts - You don't need to keep things just because they are a gift
   • Keep
   • Re-gift
   • Return
   • Donate

People do not respond to nagging or adversarial arguments.

Cleaning up clutter:

• Need heavy duty black, not clear, garbage bags, and 3 boxes
  • Keep box
  • Recycle box
  • Donate box
• If you can't decide or want to decide late, you probably do not need it

Steps to clean up clutter:

1. Start with the easiest room first
2. Determine how long you will work on the room - don't work beyond you tolerance level
3. Pluck and Purge - scan the room for easy decision items to get started
4. Break up the room
5. Stay on task - Once you pick up an item, you must do something with it
   • Put it away where it belongs or in the keep box
   • If donating - into donation box
   • If recycling - into recycling box
   • Otherwise, it probably needs to be thrown out
   • Avoid leaving the room you are working in - make a pile by the door for things that go outside the room and when time is up, then put away those items by the door
6. When done, either move on to next task or save to the next purging time
7. Act on the 3 boxes
   • Seal the boxes
   • Put where they belong - car for donation, trash, etc
8. Acknowledge the progress made and give yourself credit - This won't happen overnight
9. Reward yourself - read a book, watch a movie, see a friend, etc
10. The Ohio Rule: Only handle items once! If you pick up an item, it must go where it belongs, into one of the boxes, or in the trash.

• Have two innovation incubation models for an established firm.
• Observe how customers are actually using the product.
• Have discovery-driven planning that is adaptable to various factors of change.
• Be creative at finding the right customers who can directly benefit from your innovation, rather than a large, less targeted market.
• Expect trial and error so that a new organization can fail early and without great expense.
• Don’t develop products and services based on what customers say they would like.
• Don’t innovate in a singular quality such as performance oversupply. What does innovation look like in functionality, reliability, convenience, and price?
• Established and entrant firms bring different types of innovations to market.
• Established firms bring sustaining innovations to maintain market positions and profit margins. However, they still lose market dominance because of their focus on sustaining profits while ignoring new markets brought by disruptive technologies.
• Knowing what customers want through surveys, focus groups, and interviews is good at incremental improvement, but not effective at creating the next thing.
• A tunnel-vision chasing of profit margin should be moderated with long term expectations.
• The difficulty of predicting emerging markets means an established company can’t justify the investment. Consequently, they usually miss out on disruptive technologies and the emerging market that comes with it.
• Sometimes firms are too inflexible with its Resources/Processes/Values (RPV) framework to adapt to changing conditions.
• Theoretical models for innovation rarely work in the real world.
• Disruptive innovations are usually variations on existing technologies that open up a new customer base.
• The best way for an established company to take advantage of a disruptive technology is to create or acquire an organization that is small but utilizes flexible processes.

• Focus the whole team on finding a sustainable business model. The faster the model is found, the likelier the start-up is to succeed.
• Learn through a scientific approach, constantly validating your findings.
• Validate your hypotheses by speaking with real customers.
• Move from believing to knowing by testing the value and growth hypotheses of your product.
• Test the demand of your product by building a minimal viable product.
• Establishing the build-measure-learn cycle as fast as possible will get you to your sustainable business model quickly.
• Split-test all your features to distinguish what would be valuable to your customers and what would be a waste of time.
• Pick an engine of growth (sticky, viral, or paid) and focus.
• You must examine the right metric, not superficial metrics that don’t help you towards your goal.
• Traditional strategies cannot manage start-ups because start-ups lack a history.
• Don’t be afraid of pivoting your fundamental core assumptions.
• The main goal for a start-up is to find and build a sustainable business model.
• Value hypothesis assumes early adopters will accept a product.
• Growth hypothesis assumes a product will appeal to a larger group of people later.

The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload by Dr. Daniel Levitin

1. Take breaks.
   • One study showed overtime workers suffer from profound diminishing returns—for every extra hour, they achieved only 20 minutes’ worth of work.
2. Set up different computer monitors for different activities.
3. Embrace a (modified) paper to-do list.
4. File correspondence in multiple ways.
5. Purge, when needed.
6. Designate time for short tasks and longer projects.
   • Instead of reviewing your inbox every time you get a new message alert, allocate only a couple blocks of time each day to respond to all your messages.
7. Don’t spend more time on a decision than it’s worth.
   • A CEO won’t take an hour to decide whether to switch office supply companies in order to save a couple dollars.
8. Sleep, and nap on the job.
9. Don’t over-organize.
10. Leave work at work.

The 5 Moral Foundations:

1. Harm/Care
2. Fairness/Reciprocity
3. In-group/Loyalty
4. Authority/Respect
5. Purity/Sanctity

Jonathan Haidt (The Righteous Mind)

• Effectively integrating into the world means aligning personal paradigms with universal principles.
• “Sharpen the Saw” to stay effective. Stay physically fit by exercising. Stay mentally healthy by learning new things. Stay socially and emotionally engaged by developing positive relationships. Maintain spiritual health by confronting and reflecting on your own values.
• Be proactive and take control of your own fate.
• Begin with the end in mind and set long term goals with an understanding of your personal mission statement.
• Visualize the outcome of every step toward your goal so it will be easier to translate into concrete actions.
• “Put First Things First” by prioritizing things that bring you toward your goals and are consistent with your values or norms.
• Practice the Win-Win mentality. It will create good relationships, mutual trust, and long term benefits.
• Forming stable relationships means listening empathetically to others and understanding their personal paradigms so you can contribute and invest in their goals.
• Engage in active listening by repeating back people’s own words, mirroring their emotions, and helping structure their thought processes.
• Synergize with others by cooperating openly and respectfully. Collectives can achieve a result that is impossible for an individual.
• Don’t say yes to everything.
• Don’t view the world from a Win-Lose, competitive perspective.
• To change, you have to address your character, not your behavior.
• Our paradigms are our subjective perception of the world that shapes our habits.
• If you want to be able to influence others, first seek to understand. Only then can you be understood.

• To spread an idea, you must make sure it sticks first. It has to be something special, catchy, unique, and remarkable to cut through the market noise.
• Keep the group smaller than 150 if the goal is to effectively spread a message.
• The spread of ideas is similar in behavior to the spread of epidemics.
• The tipping point is when ideas spread from an initial niche user base into the mass majority.
• A select few types of people are generally responsible for ideas to spread: connectors, salesmen, and mavens.
• External elements influence our behavior. Such influence is generally greater than what we perceive it to be.
• Small changes in context caused by external elements can have a big ripple effect.

• Diet:
  • No refined sugars
  • Low carbs
  • Low saturated fats
• 40% carbs
• 30% protein
• 30% fats
  • 5% saturated
  • 5% polyunsaturated
  • 90% monounsaturated

Eliminate white sugar, white flour, white shortening

• Daily ex:
  • 6 sets of 12 pullups
  • 3 sets of 30 dips
  • 4 sets of 50 pushups

Establish the actual cost in time and money required to maintain your job, and compute your real hourly wage.

How:

• Deduct from your weekly income the costs of getting to and from work; the cost of the clothes you buy to wear at work; the extra cost of at-work meals; the amount spent to relax and wind down after the stress of a work day; job-related illness; and all other expenses associated with maintaining you on the job.
• Add to your work week the hours spent in preparing yourself for work, travel to and from work, the time taken to wind down at home after work, recreation need after work as a means of winding down, shopping to make you feel better since your job feels lousy, and all other hours linked with maintaining your job.
• Divide the new, reduced weekly dollar figure by the new, increased weekly hour figure;this is your real hourly wage.
• Individuals with variable incomes can get creative — take monthly averages, a typical week, whatever works for you.

You are in the business of selling the most precious resource in existence — your life energy. You had better know how much you are selling it for.

The number that results from this step — your real hourly wage — will become a vital ingredient in transforming your relationship with money.

The book offers examples of the cost and hours we spend that are directly related to having a job:

• Travelling to and from work could cost $50 a week and take you 7.5 hours.
• Annual cost of clothing for work, divided by 50 weeks, $15 a week.
• Time per week dressing and preparing for work, 1.5 hours.
• Cost of work related meals, coffee breaks, lunches, $20 a week.
• Time per week of meals and breaks at work, 5 hours.
• Many people arrive home tired and drained, it takes many people about an hour a day to relax after they get home, so per week, 5 hours.

Three Questions That Will Transform Your Life:

1. Did I receive fulfillment, satisfaction and value in proportion to life energy spent?
2. Is this expenditure of life energy in alignment with my values and life purpose?
3. How might this expenditure change if I didn’t have to work for a living.

Learn and practice intelligent use of your life energy (money) which will result in lowering your expenses and increasing your savings. This will create greater fulfillment, integrity and alignment in your life:

• Ask the three questions in Step 4 every month.
• Learn to define your true needs.
• Be conscious in your spending.
• Master the techniques of wise purchasing. Research value, quality and durability.

Checklist: Think Before You Spend

• Don’t shop.
• Live within your means.
• Take care of what you have.
• Wear it out.
• Do it yourself.
• Anticipate your needs.
• Research value, quality, durability, and multiple use.
• Get it for less.
• Buy used.
• Follow the steps of this program.

Book:

• http://vickirobin.com/books/summary-of-your-money-or-your-life/

• Think about the future as a definitive vision. This is a vision you want to focus on and attain.
• When thinking about the future, think about the progress which stands between now and the future.
• Finding ideas most people don’t know about, or agree with, is key to being successful.
• First aim to be a profitable monopoly at a specific and narrowly defined target market, then expand to other markets.
• The initial team members are critical. You must find the right mix of skills, vision, and personal connections with each other. This makes it easier to foster a strong company culture.
• Have balanced owner interests to avoid future misalignments that may cause the company to suffer.
• Two types of progress bridge the now and the future: horizontal progress (one to n) and vertical progress (zero to one).
• Vertical progress is hard because it does not exist yet. It requires you to see the present differently. It also requires you to find a truth most people don’t see or agree with.
• A startup has only one specific future vision leading to success. One must parse decisions relevant to specific conditions.
• Perfect competition is good for consumers, but it does not drive progress.
• Real progress, the zero to one type of vertical progress, usually results in monopolies. That means you’re producing something much better than everyone else is.
• Sales and distribution is vital because your products will never sell themselves. Optimize your sales effort per distribution point to include various sales strategies.
• Founders tend to be strange people. However, the vision they have is indispensable because the decisions are made to realize that original vision.

1. I don’t know.
2. I was wrong.
3. Please forgive me.

Be genuine. Be interested. And stop hogging the conversation.

1. Know the three tiers of conversations
   1. Tier one is safe territory: sports, the weather, pop culture, local celebrities and any immediate shared experience.
   2. Tier two is potentially controversial: religion, politics, dating and love lives. “Test the waters, and back away if they’re not interested,” one expert told Jen.
   3. Tier three includes the most intimate topics: family, finance, health and work life. “Some people love to talk about what they do and their kids, but don’t ask a probing question until the door has been opened,” said Daniel Post Senning, an etiquette expert and the great-great-grandson of Emily Post.
2. Be more interested to be more interesting
3. Don't be a conversation hog
   • Try these tips:
     • Be attentive and give eye contact.
     • Make active and engaged expressions.
     • Repeat back what you've heard, and follow up with questions.
     • If you notice something you want to say, don't say it. Challenge it and go back to listening.
     • For bonus points, wait an hour to bring up that thing you didn't say earlier.
   • And keep in mind that when you say something declarative, seek out the other person's opinion as well.

I’m sure you’ve run into Simon Sinek’s TED talk on the Golden Circle where he made the case for how great leaders communicate differently — leading first with their why (or purpose), then describing their how (or unique value proposition), and finally describing what they do.

1. First, get your why in order
   • When thinking about your why, it helps to deconstruct your goal into 2 parts: your purpose and your minimum success criteria
   • OKR stands for objectives and key results and it’s a goal setting framework
   • Qualitative: Why do you exist?
   • Quantitative: How will you measure this impact?
   • Your minimum success criteria is the smallest outcome that would deem your project a success 3 years from now.
     • I find 3 years to be the right length of time to get most ideas past product/market fit and into early scaling which is about as far as we can meaningfully attempt to forecast. This is the first “3” in the 3x3x3 perspective.
2. Next, formulate possible hows for achieving your why
   • I recommend timeboxing all your strategies to 90 days or 3 months which is the maximum amount of time you give to drive a pivot (change course), persevere (double-down), or reset (kill the strategy) decision. This is the second “3” in the 3x3x3 perspective.
   • Example:
     • Qualitative: Achieve Problem Solution Fit
     • How: Use a mafia offer (problem/solution interviews)
     • Quantitative: Start 30/trials a month
     • Timebox: 3 months
3. Finally, test your hows iteratively
   • The Lean Startup really shines at testing big ideas using small and fast additive experiments using the build-measure-learn loop.
     • You need to prioritize your experiments based on where you are with respect to your roadmap, and continuously adjust your experiments based on the learning feedback loop from your experiments and metrics.
   • For this reason, we only sketch high-level validation plan briefs at the outset for our 3-month strategies and leave the actual details to reveal themselves during our 3-week lean sprint iterations. Yes, this is the final “3” in the 3x3x3 perspective.

So when baselining your own progress story, consider these 3 perspectives:

1. What is your 3-year ballpark goal — purpose and minimum success criteria?
2. What is your 3-month goal and how do you envision getting there — validation plan and strategy?
3. What are you going to do in the next 3 weeks to test your strategies — experiment and lean sprints?
4. You only have ~48 sprints to go from idea to early scale which goes by a lot quicker than you expect. So make sure you make each one count.

So when baselining your own progress story, consider these 3 perspectives:

• Vision
  • Why
  • What is your 3-year ballpark goal — purpose and minimum success criteria?
• Strategy
  • How
  • What is your 3-month goal and how do you envision getting there — validation plan and strategy?
• Product
  • What
  • What are you going to do in the next 3 weeks to test your strategies — experiment and lean sprints?

Reference:

• https://blog.leanstack.com/a-3x3x3-perspective-for-getting-your-vision-strategy-and-product-aligned-46aaa3b48922

1. What might work?
2. Who might know?
3. Tell me more.
4. And what else?

1. What’s next?
2. Why wait?
3. Do it now.
4. Go for it.
5. What’s stopping you?

When you need to sell an idea at work or in a presentation, how do you do it? Five rhetorical devices can help — Aristotle identified them 2,000 years ago, and masters of persuasion still use them today:

1. Ethos. Start your talk by establishing your credibility and character. Show your audience that you are committed to the welfare of others, and you will gain their trust.
2. Logos. Use data, evidence, and facts to support your pitch.
3. Pathos. People are moved to action by how a speaker makes them feel. Wrap your big idea in a story that will elicit an emotional reaction.
4. Metaphor. Compare your idea to something that is familiar to your audience. It will help you clarify your argument by making the abstract concrete.
5. Brevity. Explain your idea in as few words as possible. People have a limited attention span, so talk about your strongest points first.

This tip is adapted from “The Art of Persuasion Hasn’t Changed in 2,000 Years,” by Carmine Gallo

SHAREVISIT WEBSITE

1. Be Specific
2. Be Immediate
3. Tie Feedback to Goals
4. Ensure Feedback Is Actionable
5. Use the Right Language
6. Don’t Avoid It

1. If you could?
2. What isn’t working?
3. What worked best?
4. What’s the purpose?
5. What energizes you?
6. What drains you?
7. What matters now?

1. Reframe — Cast the issue in a different light.
2. Rephrase — Say the words in a different, less negative way.
3. Revisit — Use an earlier success to redefine a current failure.
4. Restate — Clarify or redirect negative wording.
5. Request — Ask a question.
6. Rebalance — Adjust the other person’s power.
7. Reorganize — Change the priority of the issues.

Malavika Varadan shares a few things she’s learned having to chat with guests on her radio show. Here are her suggestions, which you can also use in virtually any situation.

1. Focus on the first word. Get over your nerves by focusing on just getting your greeting out. Malavika makes a good point, “What’s the worst that could happen? They won’t talk to you? Well, they aren’t talking to you now.”
2. Ask a non-standard question. You want to spark an interesting discussion, which means you need to ask an interesting question. This moves you away from the usual boring topics and onto something you’re both more enthusiastic to chat about.
3. Find common ground to bond over. Conversation goes a lot easier when you both feel you’re on the same wavelength. Maybe you both like the same kind of music or workout class. Whatever it is, finding a common interest helps you create a connection.
4. Give them a unique compliment. Paying someone a genuine compliment is a well-known way to start conversation. To really catch someone’s attention, make sure your compliment isn’t one they hear all the time. For example, tall people know they’re tall, find something else to compliment them on.
5. Solicit their opinion. Asking someone for their opinion gives them an easy response and can help them open up to you.
6. Give them your full attention. Checking your phone or glancing around the room to see who else is there are habits that are hard to break, but being present in the conversation creates a bond between you and the other person.
7. Reference their personal details when relevant. As the other person reveals more about themselves, try to remember personal details. This could be as simple as using their name or could be a good way to continue the conversation. For example, if they mentioned their significant other and there’s a lull, you could ask what their significant other does or how they met.

1. Keep calm. Don’t turn it into Godzilla vs. Rodan.
2. Treat’em like a child. You can’t talk them out of emotional outbursts and getting angry over it does nothing good.
3. Say "Please speak more slowly. I’d like to help." Slow it down. Don't come off like you're fighting back.
4. Ask "What would you like me to do?" You gotta make'em start thinking in order turn off the rage machine.
5. Don't make statements. Ask questions. Explaining is veiled dominance. Questions get them thinking.
6. Start sentences with "I'd like…" not "You are…" If you start with "I" it's hard to be seen as attacking.
7. Let them have the last word. Don't let your ego blow it at the last minute.

1. What excites you right now?
2. What are you looking forward to?
3. What's the best thing that's happened to you this year?
4. What's the most important thing I should know about you?
5. What's your story?
6. What is one of your defining moments?
7. Why did you choose your profession?
8. What are you currently reading?
9. How can I be most helpful to you right now?

• Really
  • Why: It is vague
  • Do instead: Omit the word
• Things / stuff
  • Why: It is not specific
  • Do instead: Define what it is
• I believe / I feel / I think
  • Why: It is not confident
  • Do instead: Remove … Don't say it
• Was / is /are / am
  • Why: It is passive voice
  • Do instead: Make it active voice
• Very
  • Why: It is unnecessary
  • Do instead: Replace

Guideline for email responses.

• B (Background): Provide a quick context—what prompted the update?
• R (Reason): Explain why you're speaking now—why should they pay attention?
• I (Information): Provide two to three key nuggets of information you want to share. What are the bullet points of the conversation?
• E (End): Decide on what note you want to leave the conversation. In this case, you may want to end by telling the CEO what you will do to get the project back on track.
• F (Follow-up): Consider the questions you anticipate the CEO will ask you when you finish speaking and prepare answers in advance.

1. Listen to Learn, Not to Be Polite
2. Quiet Your Agenda
3. Ask More Questions
4. Pay Attention to Your Talk/Listen Ratio
5. Repeat Back What You Heard
6. Actually Wait Until Someone is Done Talking Before You Respond

• B: Brief
• I: Informative
• F: Friendly
• F: Firm

Protect yourself and your reputation by responding quickly and civilly to people who treat you rude while being reasonable in return.

• "Should" traps us into searching for that one right answer
• "Could" opens our minds to creative possibilities.

Four behavioral profiles stand out.

1. Dominance - a behavior that shapes the environment, overcoming opposition to achieve results. Motivated by winning, competition and success. Negative traits may include speaking loudly, interrupting, direct emails, poor at reading emotions, and they may be surprised if directness is perceived as unkind. Lead "high Ds" by being direct and concise. Motivation should lie in giving them opportunities to work independently, setting their own goals and encouragement of big-picture ambitions. Improvement areas may include patience, sensitivity and allowing deliberation
2. Influence - Influencers shape the environment by persuasion. Motivated by social recognition, group activities and relationships. May tend to turn work events into social gatherings and are eager to talk. May jump from subject to subject or take longer than most to get the point across. Communication with “high Is” should be through engaged listening while keeping them on task. Put details in writing, and deliver praise publicly. Help them improve by working on follow-through, speaking candidly and staying focused for long periods.
3. Steadiness - emphasize cooperation with others in the existing environment to reach goals. Eager to help and emphasize sincere appreciation. Excellent listeners, but not highly expressive, not easily excitable and are calm. They tend to avoid unfamiliar topics. "High Ss" are agreeable, supportive and reserved. Communicate with the S by allowing time for small talk, listening closely and responsively and avoiding being demanding or forceful. Avoid rushing results, provide collaboration opportunities, and work on assertiveness, multitasking and adapting to change.
4. Compliance - work conscientiously in the existing environment to ensure quality and accuracy. They are motivated by opportunities to gain knowledge, show expertise and do quality work. Those in Compliance prefer to avoid social talk, ask detail-oriented questions and may keep notes of the conversation. The perfectionist behavior in Compliance can be nurtured by preparing specifics, providing facts and avoiding forcing quick responses. Motivated Cs by providing opportunities for independent projects, allowing them to show their expertise and showing interest in their ideas. Cs may need help in delegation, joining in social events and making quick decisions.

• Great presenters use fewer slides — and fewer words.
  • Reduce clutter where you can.
• Great presenters don’t use bullet points.
  • Complement text on slides with photos, videos, and images.
• Great presenters enhance their vocal delivery.
  • Don’t underestimate the power of your voice to make a positive impression on your audience.
• Great presenters create “wow” moments.
  • Give your audience something extra.
• Great presenters rehearse.
  • Put in the time to make yourself great.

Describe your reaction to the behavior. You might say: “Your interruption disappointed me because I didn’t get to hear more from Jessica, and it also made me not want to share my own ideas.

• Start the conversation by noting when and where the behavior you want to discuss occurred. Next, describe it in detail, explaining exactly what you saw and heard. For example: “In our staff meeting this morning, when we were discussing strategies, you interrupted Jessica while she was talking and said, ‘That idea will never work.’”

1. DH0. Name-calling
2. DH1. Ad hominem
   • attacks the person rather than the point they are making
3. DH2. Responding to tone.
4. DH3. Contradiction
   • You offer an opposing case but very little evidence. You simply state what you think is true, in contrast to the position of the person you are arguing with.
5. DH4. Counterargument
   • A counterargument is a contradiction with evidence and reasoning.
6. DH5. Refutation
   • A good way to refute someone is to quote them back to themselves and pick a hole in that quote to expose a flaw.
7. DH6. Refuting the central point
   • The best way to refute someone is to figure out their central point, or one of them if there are several issues involved.

Remember these five functions to build your on-the-fly speech:

1. Greeting: Pretty obvious; you want to say hello.
2. Event: State why everyone’s gathered, what the event is about, etc. Nwwazzu suggests starting this off with, “As we all know…”
3. Common Ground: Discuss something relatable to you and your audience. Maybe start this part off with “Like many of you, I…”
4. Why You’re Speaking: Include why you’ve been chosen to speak. As Nwwazzu puts it, what gives you the right to speak on this topic?
5. Call to Action: Finally, end with a call to action, “let’s all toast…” “let’s have a round of applause.” This is a natural closer.

So using the wedding example, you’d say something like:

(1)Hello, as we all know, Jim and Pam are getting married today(2). Like most of you(3), I’ve known either the bride or groom for many years. Pam and I were childhood friends(4), and she and I have been through so much together. It’s nice to know she’s found her partner in crime. Let’s all toast to their love.(5)

Winning Arguments:

1. If the argument you find convincing doesn’t resonate with someone else, find out what does
   • Frame it using their morals
     • Liberal moral foundations include equality, fairness, and protection of the vulnerable.
     • Conservative moral foundations favor in-group loyalty, moral purity, and respect for authority.
2. Listen.
   • Your ideological opponents want to feel like they’ve been heard.
   • Listen to people, get them to think about their own experience, and highlight your common humanity.

Changing minds:

• "When we wish to correct with advantage, and to show another that he errs, we must notice from what side he views the matter, for on that side it is usually true, and admit that truth to him, but reveal to him the side on which it is false. He is satisfied with that, for he sees that he was not mistaken, and that he only failed to see all sides. Now, no one is offended at not seeing everything; but one does not like to be mistaken, and that perhaps arises from the fact that man naturally cannot see everything, and that naturally he cannot err in the side he looks at, since the perceptions of our senses are always true."
  • Pascal
• In other words:
  • Before disagreeing with someone, first point out the ways in which they’re right.
  • To effectively persuade someone to change their mind, lead them to discover a counter-point of their own accord.

The point of any speech is to move people - emotionally (like at a wedding), motivationally (such as a business leader), or physically (like a coach of a team).

At its most basic, it comes down to the three T’s

1. Tell them what you’re going to tell them
2. Tell them
3. Tell them what you’ve told them

But you can expand slightly with one of these methods:

1. PREP (Point, Reason, Example, Point)
   • Point - Start off by making a clear point about the subject you are speaking about
   • Reason - Describe your reason for that particular point (the WHY of the point)
   • Example - Give one or more examples to illustrate your point and/or reason
   • Point - Finish with some concluding remarks to wrap up your story by restating your initial point
2. Pros, Cons, Recommendation (this is also effective with persuasive messages, speeches, or papers)
   • Pros - Start off your speech by describing the pros first
   • Cons - Describe the cons
   • Recommendation - Wrap up with your recommendation

Distill your message. An effective method is to use this simple, 15-word sentence:

• As a result of my [talk], they will understand [this], and respond by [doing that].

Here are a few examples:

• As a result of my presentation about our company’s analytics platform, they will understand how we can help them boost sales, and respond by hiring us to consult on their portfolios.
• As a result of my explanation for why we will grow by 21% next year, they will understand how valuable I am to the company, and respond by giving me a raise.
• As a result of my Q4 sales presentation, they will understand why we need to focus more on developing younger customers, and respond by approving the budget to grow our research team.

Tips:

1. Memorize your introduction and conclusion.
   • Brain freeze occurs most commonly during those awful seconds when you first face a crowd.
2. It’s not about you.
   • Every decision you make must demonstrate that you’re talking for your audience’s benefit, not yours. (Just think how it feels to listen to someone prattling away about something that you don’t care about.)
3. Do everything you can to help them hear and understand you.
   • People are bad at listening.
   • Use short words, sentences and paragraphs to express your ideas; physical, concrete and vivid images that appeal to the senses; and active verb choices in place of abstract or passive language.
4. Don’t drown your audience in data.
   • If your talk relies on heavy data, be sure to explain what that data means — on a human level. People want to know how you think, feel, and believe. That’s why you’re in the same room (or on Zoom) with them, instead of sending the data by email.
5. Eliminate anything that doesn’t clearly support your purpose.
   • If a slide, statistic, joke, or anecdote doesn’t serve your goal, cut it.
6. Record yourself or practice in front of real people — or both, if you can.

Reference:

• https://www.mattbutton.com/2019/02/23/impromptu-speaking-techniques/
• https://time.com/2839930/the-5-step-formula-for-presenting-like-a-leader/
• https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/to-be-great-at-public-speaking-distill-message-15-words-speech-trainer-says.html

Do you make the first offer or defer to the other party?

1. Gain as much information as you can. This starts before the negotiation, when you do your homework and due diligence. And it continues during the negotiation, when you ask important questions and listen carefully to the answers.
2. Ask yourself these two questions:
   • Do you know why your counterpart values the item?
   • Do you know what prices they would consider reasonable?
3. If you can’t answer both of these questions, then keep gathering information before you make the first offer.
   • If you find the answers are impossible to get, then invite your counterpart to make the first offer.
   • If you can answer them confidently, be bold and go first.

http://www.fastcompany.com/3054022/know-it-all/when-to-make-the-first-offer-in-a-negotiation-according-to-science

Rely on the good old HPM:

• HISTORY: This reminds me of the last time I rode this coaster…
• PHILOSOPHY: I HATE coasters! All the ups and downs make me wanna puke. But I go on one every day to prepare me for the ups and downs of life.
• METAPHOR: Roller coasters are like cigarettes…

• Behavior is destiny.
• Make things better.
• Eject energy vampires.
• Leverage your strengths.
• Find a coach.
• Learn from failure.
• Serve your team.
• Say something positive.
• Ask more questions.
• Build strong relationships.

One small thing you can keep in mind—the difference between responding to something and reacting to something.

According to Psychology Today, a reaction is instant, emotional, based on your beliefs and biases, and from your unconscious mind—while a response comes slowly, based on information from both your conscious and unconscious mind. That means that reactions are often defensive or survival-based and you might regret them later, while responses are generally more considerate of more than one point of view and thought out.

In short, a response is an action based on logic, while a reaction is an emotional state—and while in some cases a response and a reaction may look the same, the intention behind them, and the consequences that follow them, can be completely different.

1. Prepare!
2. Understand 5x better than how we want to share
3. Stay brief
4. Simplify
5. Factual events (boring) vs feelings (what we want to convey)

Be a great storyteller - Break these habits:

1. Giving too much background
2. Telling, not showing
3. Taking too much time
4. Not including any dialogue
5. Taking your audience through unnecessary detours

This type of story is so valuable because for people to be engaged, they need to understand why they should take action. "The clarity story provides reasons in the most powerful and digestible format possible," writes Callahan in Putting Stories to Work.

1. Part 1 begins with a look back at the past to take the listener back to the way things used to be.
   • Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.
2. Part 2 shifts to something that happened: the events that caused a problem or opportunity.
   • Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.
3. Part 3 is what Callahan calls "so now . . ." which describes the decision or action needed to respond.
   • But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate – we can not consecrate – we can not hallow – this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here.
4. Part 4 looks ahead to the future to envision a desired outcome.
   • It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us – that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion – that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain – that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom – and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

1. The only reason to open your mouth is to make something better. (If you only remember one rule, make it this one.)
2. Be brief. The longer you talk, the less effective you become. The Gettysburg address was 272 words.
3. Be brief and ask, “What else would you like to know?”
4. Stay present with others. Presence is “going with” even when challenging ideas. You aren’t present when pushing your own agenda at the expense of others.
5. Ask people what they need to know, before telling them what they need to know.
6. Stay on topic. Chasing rabbits is for dogs.
7. Explain yourself. Don’t give people the benefit of your conclusions without explaining how you found them.
8. Include purpose when giving direction. Busyness is a fog that obscures the big picture.
9. Tell stories. (Remember rule #2.)
10. Stay calm if you expect to connect. Strong emotion intimidates.

To help yourself avoid interruptions and boost your charisma, follow the “two-second rule”:

• Count to 2 seconds before responding.
  • Often, people were not finished speaking. They merely paused. By waiting two seconds, you allow them to finish their entire thought. Rather than interrupting the other person, you communicate genuine interest and attention to what they are saying.
  • Waiting two seconds creates a moment of tension between the end of their thought and your reply. Because most people immediately jump into their reply, in waiting two seconds you communicate confidence and power.

Remember, charisma and likability aren’t based on how smart or talkative you are, they’re about the way you carry yourself and conduct communication with others.

Make other people feel valuable and you become valuable.

Peaches

• Canine, American Staffordshire
• Spayed Female Spayed/Neutered: y
• Birthday: 2011-04-30

Table 2: Peaches: As of 29-Jul 2022

Name	Date Given	Due Date
Vaccine 1 Year Bivalent Influenza	07-Feb 2022	07-Feb 2023
PV- 1 Yr Bordetella Intra-Nasal, Previously Vaccinated	27-Dec 2021	27-Dec 2022
Vaccine 3 Year Rabies	22-Dec 2020	22-Dec 2023
Vaccine 3 Year DHPP EDGE 0.5mL	22-Dec 2020	22-Dec 2023

Rita

• Canine, Husky Mix
• Spayed Female Spayed/Neutered: y
• Birthday: 2012-06-21

Table 3: Rita: As of 29-Jul 2022

Name	Date Given	Due Date
PV- 1 Yr Bordetella Intra-Nasal, Previously Vaccinated	07-Jul 2022	07-Jul 2023
Vaccine 1 Year Bordetella Oral	30-Oct 2021	30-Oct 2022
Vaccine 1 Year Bivalent Influenza	30-Oct 2021	30-Oct 2022
Vaccine 3 Year Rabies	16-Oct 2020	16-Oct 2023
Vaccine 3 Year DHPP EDGE 0.5mL	16-Oct 2020	16-Oct 2023

Barto

• Canine, Chihuahua Mix
• Neutered Male Spayed/Neutered: y
• Birthday: 2014-06-21

Table 4: Barto: As of 29-Jul 2022

Name	Date Given	Due Date
PV- 1 Yr Bordetella Intra-Nasal, Previously Vaccinated	04-Mar 2022	04-Mar 2023
Vaccine 1 Year Bivalent Influenza	03-Sep 2021	03-Sep 2022
Vaccine 1 Year Bordetella Intranasal Intra-trac 3	03-Sep 2021	03-Sep 2022
Vaccine 3 Year Rabies	29-Aug 2020	29-Aug 2023
Vaccine 3 Year DHPP EDGE 0.5mL	29-Aug 2020	29-Aug 2023

1. Driving 2 less days a week reduces annual greenhouse gas by 2 tons annually per EPA
2. Removing beef from your diet could be more effective than getting rid of your car
3. Swap all lightbulbs over to LEDs

Need support:

• Use wooden toothpicks over plastic floss
• Use paper bags or reusable bags (# times??)
• Grow a garden

1. Step 1: Understand Your Land
   • Plants grow in the wild without fertilizer. Survivors adapt, learning to love even marginal soil. They also forge relationships with other plants, animals, and the microbiology of the soil. These relationships become the foundation of a sustainable and resilient landscape.
2. Step 2: Design Your Space
   • What plants will thrive in my yard? In other words, what does nature want? And what do I want? Where these desires meet will be the foundation of your design.
   • Choose your plants
     • Long-term, native perennials will create a more stable, low-maintenance landscape. While native plants are essential to local wildlife— especially the keystone genera (which make up only 5 percent of the area’s native species but produce 75 percent of the food)
3. Step 3: Prepare the Site and Install
   • Remove invasive plants
   • Start small
   • Don’t amend the soil
     • There are plants—beautiful ones—that are adapted to pretty much every soil type
   • Cover the ground
     • Landscape plugs—small seedlings sold in flats—spaced at 10 to 12 inches on center or growing from seed are the most cost-effective ways to do this.
     • Instead of raking the leaves to the curb, spread them under your trees and shrubs. Tiny insects will make their homes there, feeding birds. Plus: free mulch!
4. Step 4: Maintain It
   • The establishment phase is about two years
   • Mow your lawn high
   • Water less
     • Grass needs one inch of water per week during the growing season. East of the Mississippi, as long as you don’t mind dormancy during a drought—meaning, it may look crispy and brown, depending on the type, but still be very much alive — you don’t need to irrigate your lawn.
5. Step 5: Support It

References:

• https://www.popularmechanics.com/home/lawn-garden/a28197493/give-your-yard-back-to-nature/

• Replace plastic bags with reusable bags
• Decline freebies or find a good use.
• Replace your other disposable plastic
  • Try some reusable food wraps instead of Saran Wrap
  • Try bar soap instead of plastic-bottled body wash
  • Look for brands that sell the same thing in paper instead of plastic
  • When you do buy disposable stuff, lean toward paper again.
• Carry your own food containers
  • Make your own coffee and if you want it on the go, use a thermos. One thermos, which you keep for years. Keep a glass water bottle at your desk, and a collapsible water bottle in your bag.
  • Bring your own reusable silverware around
• Get less takeout
• Look up your local recycling rules

1. Rule #1: Be less certain.
2. Rule #2: Ask “How often does that typically happen?”
3. Rule #3: Think probabilistically — and learn some basic probability.

• Happiness = Reality / Expectations.
  • If I am 200 pounds I can change reality slowly. But I can change expectations lower in a second (I’m fine weighing 200 pounds but I’m going to start eating healthier).
• Anger = Fear Clothed
  • Understanding the underlying fears that angry people have leads to mastery in life.
• The 5/25 Rule
  • List the top 25 things you most want to accomplish in life.
  • Now take the top 5, move them over here, and take the bottom 20 and move them over there.
  • These 20 are still in the TOP 25 things you want to do in life. So they are special and important to you.
• The 5×5 Rule
  • You are the average of the 5 people you spend the most time with.
  • Your health is the average of the 5 foods you eat the most
  • Your mental state is the average of the 5 things you think about the most.
  • Your creativity is the average of the five works of art you spend the most time trying to read or watch or understand.
  • Your ability to be loved is the average of the five things you most do that are lovable.
  • Corollary: Stand next to the smartest person in the room.
• Persistence + Love = Abundance
• The 1% Rule
  • If something compounds at 1% a day, it will be 37 times better in a year.
  • If something loses 1% a day, it will be 0.03% of what it was in a year.
• The "What I Liked As a Kid" rule
  • List the things you liked when you were 6, 8, 10, 14.
  • Now list what you can do with those things as an adult. How did these loves age with you?
• Plus, Minus, Equal (To learn…)
  • PLUS: a real or virtual mentor who can teach you.
  • EQUALS: people who can challenge you
  • MINUS: people you can teach, because teaching solidifies learning.
• Everyone is Irrational All of the Time
  • What this means: it’s no use assuming people will be rational towards us. It’s no use fighting for strong opinions. It’s no use telling people what to do or using rational arguments to get people to do what you would like them to do, even if it’s to treat you nicer.
  • This is the argument for living by example. Even in life: Show and don’t tell.
• The 64/4 Rule
  • If 20% of the effort creates 80% of the value (think of a job: 20% of the employees do 80% of the work), then square that.
  • So now 20% of the 20% of the effort makes 80% of 80% of the value.
  • So 4% of the work you do in life creates 64% of the benefits in your life.
  • Find that 4%, be ok with only creating 64% of the benefits, and then use the other 96% each day to focus on things that you love.
• Bring the Target Closer
  • Break a problem into smaller parts. List the parts. Break those parts down. List them. Do one thing. You just brought the target closer.
• The 1,000 Hour Rule (or “Idea Sex”).
  • Spend 500 hours getting pretty good at one thing. Spend 500 hours getting pretty good at something else.
  • Now you will be the best in the world at the intersection.
• The F+ Rule
  • In real life, if 51% of your decisions are mostly good, then you will be a massive success in life (in Baseball, of course, if only 30% of the time you hit safely to base then you are an all-star).
  • If more than 70% of your decisions are good then you are probably a failure. You aren’t taking enough risks.
  • 50–60% seems to be the right mix. Practice being wrong.
• Nobody Cares If You Are At The Party
  • But people care only when you have something great to offer. Nobody cares when you mess up. Everyone messes up.
  • Nobody is ever thinking about you. They are worried about what you think of them.
  • Create something good. Then come to the party.
• Positive Action > Feeling Gratitude
• Well Being = Good relationships + Improving Competence, + Freedom
• The Hell Yeah Rule
  • “If it’s not a HELL, YEAH, it’s a NO!”
  • This is the way to say NO almost all of the time.
  • This can also be called the “Life is too short” rule.
• Surrender
  • I can only do the best I can right now and then surrender the results. Once you release the bowling ball, your job is done.

1. Most things improve
2. If you feel unsure, expect most are in the middle - it's one hump (Bell curve)
3. First social then rich
4. If something is scary, it is likely exaggerated problem

Equations to use in life:

1. On Discussions vs arguments:
   • I feel x whenever y happens, I would like z…. And to try to never use the word "you" as that puts many people on the defensive.
2. On change:
   • Change + unknown = Chaos
3. The Financial Independence Formula
   • The first part calculates your FI Number – the total amount of money required to give you a sufficient income for life:
     • FI Number = Yearly Spending / Safe Withdrawal Rate
   • The second part of the formula uses your FI Number to figure out how many years it will take you to reach FI:
     • Years to FI = (FI Number – Amount Already Saved) / Yearly Saving
4. Evaluate cost of items before purchase
   • (Cost of item)/(#uses per month) = Monthly Relative Cost
5. Deep Work:
   • High quality work produced = (time spent) x (intensity of focus)
   • Georgetown professor and author Cal Newport writes in his new book "Deep Work". It's a phrase Newport coined for intense sessions of distraction-free work that requires the full use of one's focus and intelligence.
   • Newport writes that "there's one idea in particular that seems central to his method: the batching of hard but important intellectual work into long, uninterrupted stretches."
6. Risk = Hazard x Exposure
   • Think motorcycle risk (hazard) -> the more you ride (exposure), the higher the risk
   • The difference between 100 people going to Vegas once vs 1 person going to Vegas 100 times
7. Stress + Rest = Growth

1. Rule No. 1: Life is a competition
   • But never fall for the collective delusion that there's not a competition going on. People dress up to win partners. They interview to win jobs. If you deny that competition exists, you're just losing. Everything in demand is on a competitive scale. And the best is available only to those who are willing to truly fight for it.
2. Rule No. 2: You're judged by what you do, not what you think
   • Society judges people by what they can do for others. That's not how we judge ourselves, though. We judge ourselves by our thoughts. We like to think that society rewards those who do the best work. But in reality, social reward is just a network effect. Reward comes down mostly to the number of people you reach. You may hate this. It may make you sick. Reality doesn't care. You're judged by what you have the ability to do, and the volume of people you can affect. If you don't accept this, then the judgment of the world will seem very unfair indeed.
3. Rule No. 3: Our idea of fairness is self-interest
   • People like to invent moral authority. It's why we have referees in sports games and judges in courtrooms: We have an innate sense of right and wrong, and we expect the world to comply. But reality is indifferent. You studied hard, but you failed the exam. You worked hard, but you didn't get promoted. You love her, but she won't return your calls. Take a proper look at that person you fancy but didn't fancy you back. That's a complete person. A person with years of experience being someone completely different from you. A real person who interacts with hundreds or thousands of other people every year. But however they make you feel, the actions of others are not some cosmic judgment on your being. They're just a byproduct of being alive.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-problem-isnt-that-life-is-unfair-2015-11

1. Assuming small differences are meaningful
2. Equating statistical significance with real-world significance
   • If the effect size is small, then the two groups are very similar. Even if the effect size is large, the two groups will still likely have a great deal of variation within them, so not all members of one group will be different from all members of another group.
3. Neglecting to look at extremes
   • Avoid this error by reflecting on whether you’re dealing with extremes or not. When you’re dealing with average people, small group differences often don’t matter. When you care a lot about the extremes, small group differences can matter heaps.
4. Trusting coincidence
   • Avoid this error by asking how reliable the observed association is. Is it a one-off, or has it happened multiple times? Can future associations be predicted? If you have seen it only once, then it is likely to be due to random chance.
5. Getting causation backwards
   • You can avoid this error by remembering to think about reverse causality when you see an association. Could the influence go in the other direction? Or could it go both ways, creating a feedback loop?
6. Forgetting to consider outside causes
   • You can avoid this error by remembering to think about third factors when you see a correlation. If you’re following up on one thing as a possible cause, ask yourself what, in turn, causes that thing? Could that third factor cause both observed outcomes?
7. Deceptive graphs
   • You can avoid this error by taking care to note graph’s labels along the axes. Be especially sceptical of unlabelled graphs

Reference:

• https://theconversation.com/the-seven-deadly-sins-of-statistical-misinterpretation-and-how-to-avoid-them-74306

Consider the basic mathematics of repeated risks. When we do some activity that has pretty low risk "R" each time we do it — say, a 1-in-1000 chance of serious injury — and the risk each time is independent from the previous times, then if we do this activity once, we have a risk of R. By contrast, if we do the activity twice, we face the risk of the bad outcome twice, so the risk is about 2*R. Likewise, the total risk we take on when we do the same activity T times (assuming T is not super large) is about T * R. This is the basic risk formula you should keep in your mind.*

So if you're about to commit yourself to do something 30 times, you're taking on about 30 times the risk you'd take on by doing it once. Does your brain properly appreciate that huge multiplier? Do you feel on a gut level that doing something 30 times more often is 30 times riskier? Probably not. As the risk R gets bigger, individual decisions of course becomes more significant. But the actual risk is about T * R, so R itself is not enough to consider if you plan to repeat the activity a number of times. If we limit our considerations to R by itself, then we're likely to end up too risk-averse on individual decisions, and not nearly cautious enough about repeated choices.

Let's consider motorcycles. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, American motorcyclists in 2006 faced about a 1-in-26,000 chance of dying for every 100 miles' travel. For reference, this is 11 times the chance of dying that an American 30-year-old man faces on a random day, or 24 times the chances of death that a 30-year-old woman faces on a random day.

So, if you are considering buying a motorcycle, and predict you will ride it for 100 miles each week for the next 5 years, that's about 52 weeks * 5 years = 260 times that you'll go on a 100-mile ride. This behavior would amplify your risk of death by 260:

• R * T = (1 / 26000) * 260 = 1 / 100

That is, you've just taken on a predicted 1% risk of death by buying and regularly riding this motorcycle! Of course, injuries are much more common than death (about 20x higher, it seems) in motorcycle accidents, so the chance of injury you've taken on is even higher than that. So this is a very weighty decision. It becomes weightier still if you think you'll ride it for 10 years instead of 5. But even in the 5-year case, consider: how much money would you pay NOT to have to roll a 100-sided die where death occurs if you roll a 100, and a potentially grave motorcycle-accident injury occurs if you roll, say, an 80 or higher? That's the kind of risk you're taking on by choosing to ride a motorcycle 100 miles a week for 5 years.**

Part of the reason we can underestimate risk is because we convince ourselves that we can stop at any time. For instance, we can buy the motorcycle and then later just decide to stop using it. Surely we can, but the question is, will we? We need to make the decision based on what we predict will happen, not what could theoretically happen.

The point is here that doing a "risky" thing once is far less risky than doing a risky thing many times — about T times more risky! — but your brain won't necessarily perceive the right relationship. For small independent risks, the total risk of a bad thing happening scales with the number of times T you do the thing. So remember the risk formula: R * T, and teach it to your brain.

Another clear illustration of this idea can be found in this New York Times analysis of the effectiveness of various forms of birth control over time. Consider the oral contraceptive pill, for instance; the Times analysis finds that 9 women in 100 would develop an unplanned pregnancy after a year of typical use of this popular birth control method. (Evra patches and NuvaRings are other hormone-based birth control systems with failure rate similar to the pill.):

After 5 years of typical use, the proportion of women who would likely experience an unwanted pregnancy rises to 38 in 100:

And after 10 years, the proportion of women on the pill who could expect an unwanted pregnancy rises to a surprising 61 out of 100. The male condom, a similarly popular birth control device, rises to a somewhat astonishing 86 in 100 unwanted pregnancies after 10 years of typical use in this accounting. (However, it's worth noting that James Trussell, the academic whose work provides the basis for the Times analysis, believes these graphs overestimate the "typical use" failure rate.):

So we urge you: be appropriately wary of repeated risks! There are many things that are fine to do once, but that are dangerous to do T times, for a moderately large T.

3 of 7 behaviors made up 66% of the difference in how people performed. (By comparison, standard metrics like education, age, and hours worked were only responsible for 10% combined.):

1. Do Less — Then Obsess
   • Top performers definitely focus on fewer goals — but they also obsess like crazy over them.
2. Use “The Learning Loop”
   • Deliberate practice seems straightforward in sports, music or chess. But how do you do it in the modern workplace?
     • Pick one and only one skill at a time to develop.
     • Carve out your 15.
     • Isolate micro-behaviors.
     • Get feedback.
3. Feel Passion & Purpose
   • 6 ways to derive passion from your work:
     1. Task passion: The obvious one. What you do excites you.
     2. Achievement passion: A salesperson might not be keen on the product, but they get a high every time they close a big deal.
     3. Creative passion: An engineer might not be thrilled about the project, but they love solving hard problems.
     4. People passion: The company or the job might not be that great, but you love supporting and interacting with the people around you.
     5. Learning passion: We’ve all heard someone say that they love what they do because they learn something new every day.
     6. Competence passion: We all get excited when we’re doing something we’re good at.

I've been helping the ultra-rich protect their wealth for years, and here are the 10 best pieces of advice I can give you about money

1. Be mindful of the tax consequences on any investments you make.
   • We cannot escape taxes, as they impact not only our earnings but also our investments. The wealthy understand the impact of taxes and try to see it as a benefit, when possible. An example is 2008 and the “great recession.” Many mutual funds were down by -30% to -40%. Rather than avoid them in 2009, if the mutual fund had a strong track record the wealthy and their financial advisors embraced them as their losses were carried forward for future investors, thus creating a positive tax benefit (less tax drag). This is one example of how taxes, used properly, can be positive.
2. Don’t follow the masses.
   • Too often investing is about following the masses rather than thinking outside the box. One key characteristic of the wealthy is continuing to have their assets grow by thinking differently. They don’t concentrate on ETF portfolios or mutual funds, but use investments like private equity, commercial real estate, and advanced-option strategies to build and hedge risks. The wealthy make certain the advisors and firms have a record of working with high net worth families in this area.
3. Work with “smart” people.
   • Hiring a professional is easy — you look for an individual who works in a particular field and ask questions to make certain they are good. We’ve found an interesting characteristic with the wealthy: They continually hire what we consider to be the “smartest” professionals. Their accountants understand filing taxes, of course, but also complicated tax structuring. Their attorneys can draft documents but also think “ten years from now what happens.” And their financial advisors think beyond investing — behavioral finance, communication skills, and the history of the markets.
4. Structure the ownership of assets.
   • When we work with wealthy families, one key trait we examine is the ownership structure of their assets. Those who have wealth not only have money but they create structuring to protect it. They are concerned with asset protection: utilizing proper ownership so that unforeseen events do not risk the assets, such as putting their home in trust. They are concerned with generational wealth — using generation skipping trusts and irrevocable trusts. They think about passing their money to their children; revocable trusts to avoid probate and provide secrecy.
5. Prepare your children for the future.
   • Regardless of news reports to the contrary, the wealthy do not “turn all their money over to a charity.” It is given to their children and grandchildren. With the gift comes responsibility for the children. The best families prepare their children for wealth and try their best to make certain they understand wealth can bring responsibility and complications. They utilize “Next Gen” training programs offered by firms like JPMorgan, UBS, and BofAML. They help their children get internships with Private Wealth Advisors and groups to further their children’s educations around money.
6. Debt is not a bad word
   • When looking at the balance sheet for wealthy families, you will inevitably see one common feature — debt. Not in the form of a bond issuance like Apple, but rather securities backed lending, mortgages, and other forms. With historically low-interest rates, the wealthy take advantage and create a “spread” between their investment return and the cost of borrowing. When we evaluate a financial advisor we want to see if they utilize debt and are they providing competitive rates.
7. Create a financial plan.
   • Shockingly, not all clients have a clearly laid out financial plan listing their assets, liabilities, future expected outlays, and goals. Investing without a financial plan is a recipe for disaster and leads to the basic question, “How can someone invest on your behalf without these basic facts?” We’ve found that the wealthy typically have a clearly laid out financial plan, updated on a regular basis. Their advisors work hand-in-hand with them to create and update the information.
8. It’s not only about the financial markets.
   • Moving from high net worth ($5mm to $25mm) to ultra-high net worth ($25mm+) is more about owning “other assets” then growing assets in the markets. The UHNW will have business interests, real estate, or other assets outside the market. One common feature of the UHNW is their use of financial advisors who understand “the markets are not everything” and can help them get a complete picture on funding and introductions for their business growth.
9. Ask your advisor to simplify their data.
   • A challenge we see is the complexity of data delivered to a client — the “yearly review.” Even with our decades of experience in finance and investing we come out of meetings shaking our heads and wondering, “What where they thinking? No one could understand that yearly review material.” One thing is certain, the wealthy and particularly the families having generational wealth do not have this problem. There is accountability around information delivered — returns, investments, benchmarks, and more. The investment advisors and bankers are judged on results and there are clear expectations at each meeting.
10. Avoid concentrated positions.
    • The wealthy generally have one thing in common — their wealth came from success in a business. A feature of the wealthy is diversification from this concentration. They recognize wealth can be lost quicker than it can be made. To help them keep their wealth, they employ wealth-management strategies on diversification of risk.

These are the two mindsets of building wealth.

1. People who stay poor or middle class see money as something to be spent.
2. People who become rich see money as something to be invested.

Tax	Income
10%	$0 to $9,275
15%	$9,275 to $37,650
25%	$37,650 to $91,150
28%	$91,150 to $190,150
33%	$190,150 to $413,350
35%	$413,350 to $415,050
39.6%	$415,050+

Start by dividing your before-tax income into four equal parts and grouping the daunting list of expenses your paycheck needs to cover into four categories:

1. taxes
2. housing (rent or mortgage)
3. debts (excluding mortgage payments)
4. living expenses

Categories

1. The first 25 percent: Taxes Figure on a bill that could total 25 percent of pretax income for moderate earners.
2. The second 25 percent: Housing Limit your monthly payments to no more than 25 percent of your pretax monthly salary.
3. The third 25 percent: Debts Limit your monthly loan payments to no more than one-quarter of your pretax monthly salary.
4. The last 25 percent: Living expenses

http://www.moneytalksnews.com/2013/12/31/the-25-percent-budget-strategy/

50/20/30 rule is a basic, broad guideline aimed at helping you budget for different financial goals.

• Fixed Costs (50%): Everything you have to pay for monthly should fit in half your paycheck, wherever possible. If you earn $3,000/mo, don’t live in a place with $2,000 rent. Keep rent/mortgage, utilities, and recurring bills under that 50% line.
• Flexible Spending (30%): This category can include anything that changes month to month. That can mean things like grocery shopping, but it can also include your entertainment budget, or your hobbies.
• Financial Goals (20%): This category should be devoted to some form of goal you have. This can include building your savings, paying down debt, building an emergency fund, and so on.

From:

• http://moneyning.com/budgeting/revisiting-the-502030-budgeting-rule/

1. Create a budget
   • 50/30/20 budget
     • Needs/Wants/Savings
   • 80/20 budget
     • Needs+Wants/Savings
   • 30/30/30/10 budget
     • The first 30% of your budget is for housing, meaning either rent or your mortgage.
     • 30% of your budget is for other necessary expenses like utilities, groceries, gas, internet, etc.
     • 30% of your budget is for financial goals like paying off debt or saving.
     • 10% of your budget is for wants, which includes dining out, entertainment, travel, and more.
2. Pay off high-interest debt
3. Create an emergency fund
4. Earn more money
5. Invest
6. Have the right insurance
7. Have a will and estate plan

https://www.clevergirlfinance.com/blog/wealth-accumulation/

• Caleb: Z2N-W1N
• Ella: K92-87N
• https://www.ugift529.com/

1. “Most people who overspend their income do so in one of three ways: 1) Too much house, 2) Too much car, 3) Too much entertainment.” // Financial adviser, 2008.
2. “Begin your marriage living on just one income.” // Boss, 2000.
3. “Buy your car with cash.” // Friend, 2004.
4. “If you can’t keep a monthly budget, use a spending plan instead.” // Writer, 2009.
5. “You are never too poor to give.” // Parents, 1979.
6. “Never take a job just because of the money. Always consider the money, but never let it be the determining factor.” // Mentor, 1998.
7. “One extra monthly payment per year on your mortgage shortens the length of your loan by years.” // Real Estate Broker, 2001.

AHRP Allocations:

• Bonds - Comerica SDA Ttl Bond Mkt Idx: 13%
• Large Cap Equity - Vanguard 500 Index (VIIIX): 10%
• Mid Cap Equity - Comerica SDA Mid-Small Cap Idx: 10%
• Small Cap Equity - MSIF Small Company Growth (MFLLX): 15%
• International Equity - Comerica SDA Intl Equity: 28%
• Emerging Markets Equity - DFA Emerging Markets Value (DFEVX): 17%
• Realty - Cohen & Steers Realty Shares: 7%

Mine:

• U.S. Stock 30%
• Foreign Stock 26%
• Emerging Markets 18%
• REITs 13%
• Bonds 7%
• TIPS 6%

Recommended:

• 43% Domestic
• 25% Foreign Developed
• 15% REITs
• 17% Foreign Emerging
• Bonds: 50% Investment grade; 50%Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
• Make sure to own small cap and value stock

General ideas from Future Advisor:

• The main asset classes we use at FutureAdvisor are stocks, bonds, real estate and inflation-protected securities.
• Generally, FutureAdvisor recommends passive funds with fees under 0.6%, and ideally a lot lower for mainstream investments, such as the S&P 500.
• FutureAdvisor recommends that no more than half of your stock exposure be domestic. The remaining exposure should be split between developed markets, emerging markets and international real estate stocks, roughly in descending order of exposure. Your bond holdings should be internationally diversified too.

Ideas of ways to have more than 1 income:

1. Earned income (salary)
2. Profit income (business profit)
3. Rental income (real estate)
4. Royalty/patents income (depending on your business)
5. Capital gains income (if you sell an asset for more than you bought it for)
6. Dividend (4% every year on average in index funds)
7. Interest (lending money to someone else)

• First, because of taxes and compounding one dollar saved is worth more than one dollar spent.
  • Taxes:
    • If you bought a new $23,000 Mini Cooper, for example, you’d use money left over after paying the government. But in order to get that $23,000, the average American would have to earn $30,000. The other $7000 — in the form of 5-1/2 weeks of work — goes to taxes.
  • Compounding:
    • Every time you spend one dollar you could have invested, you don’t just lose that dollar but any future return you might have earned on it.
    • Assuming typical stock-market growth, one dollar would have a value of $1.93 ten years from now — and $7.20 in thirty years.

On average, each dollar an American spends represents $2.57 of value in ten years or $9.57 in thirty years.

The opportunity cost of spending one dollar today is ten dollars you might have had in retirement.

• By carefully guarding your dimes, you turn them into future dollars.

• Balance Sheet
  • Assets = Liabilities + Owner’s Equity
• Profit/Loss
  • The P&L is the best view into your bottom line, or net income, which is why it’s typically used to show business lenders and investors whether your company has made or lost money during a given period.
  • Taxable Income
• Cash Flow
  • Operations: the business functions you need to operate, including accounts receivable, accounts payable, and inventory.
  • Investing: long-term changes to equipment, acquiring or selling assets, etc.
  • Financing: acquiring debts, repaying loans, etc. which don’t affect your bottom line, but they do affect the amount of cash in the bank!

The math is simple: if you’re receiving more per month in passive income than you’re spending, then you’re financially free.

1. Goal 1: Financial Security
   • This means that your mortgage, utilities, food, insurance, and other very basic needs are covered.
   • This number will vary for you based on your current home, utilities, diet, insurance, family, etc. but go ahead and get a rough estimate of what you spend each month on:
     • Rent / mortgage
     • Utilities
     • Food
     • Insurance
     • Basic needs
2. Goal 2: Financial Independence
   • This is whatever the current lifestyle you have costs.
   • The easiest way to figure this out is to look at what you’re spending each month right now.
3. Goal 3: Absolute Financial Freedom
   • This is where you have more money than you know what to do with.

Your goal is to build up enough non-work income (or potential for non-work income) that you hit your Security, Independence, and Absolute Freedom levels. And more importantly, to be reasonably assured that it’s not going to suddenly disappear tomorrow and leave you in the lurch.

Those sources break down into two categories:

1. Investments
   • You need to figure out how much you need to have invested. To do that, take your financial security number, multiply it by 12 to get the annual number, then by 25 (the inverse of 4%).
   • Security Investment = Financial Security Monthly Cost x 12 x 25
2. Passive Income

Roadmap:

• Create your financial freedom calculator by making a copy of mine
• Set goals for Security, Independence, and Absolute Freedom
• Cut your costs to make security and independence easier your goals
• Maximize how much you’re investing somewhere like Wealthfront
• Create passive income to speed everything up

1. When estimating income, $1 an hour in wage is equivalent to $2000 per year in pre-tax earnings.
   • The reverse is also true: $2000 per year in salary is equal to $1 an hour in hourly wage. (This rule works because the average worker spends roughly 2000 hours per year on the job.)
2. Divide your age by ten, then multiply by your annual gross income. Your net worth should be equal to this number (less any inheritances).
   • So, if you're 40 and make $50,000 per year, your net worth should be $200,000. If you have less than half the expected amount, you're an "under-accumulator of wealth". If you have twice the target, you're a "prodigious accumulator of wealth".
3. On average, each dollar an American spends represents about $2.50 of after-tax value in ten years or $10 in thirty years
   • This is due to two reasons: taxes and compounding. When you buy something, you spend after-tax dollars. On average, Americans have to earn $1.33 to have $1.00 left over.
4. Inflation is the silent killer of wealth
   • Assume 3.5% - or even 4% - average inflation in the future.
5. U.S. stocks have earned long-term real returns (meaning inflation-adjusted returns) of about 7%. Bonds have long-term real returns of around 2.5%.
6. If you withdraw about four percent of your savings each year, your wealth snowball will maintain its value against inflation.
7. Multiply your current annual expenses by 25. If the result is less than your savings, you've achieved financial independence
8. Determine how long you'll need to save before you're financially independent.
   • Figure out your current saving rate (or profit margin, if you prefer).
   • Subtract this number from 60.
   • Roughly speaking - and assuming you've started from a zero net worth - that's how long you'll need to work before your nest egg is big enough to support you in retirement.
9. Assuming a safe withdraw rate of roughly four percent, every $100 you save gives you one penny per day in perpetuity.
10. Balanced Money Formula: Spend no more than 50% of your after-tax income on Needs, put at least 20% into savings (including debt reduction), and spend the rest (around 30%) on Wants.
11. Each year, contribute 1% of your home's current value to a separate account.
12. rule of thumb, budget $10,000 per child per year.
13. If you get a windfall, use 1% to treat yourself.
14. To approximate a new vehicle's five-year cost of ownership (in monthly terms), double the price tage and divide by 60.
    • Looking at a brand-new Mini Cooper ? Double that $30,000 sticker price to get $60,000, then divide by 60. Is it really worth $1000 per month to get rid of your crummy Ford Focus?
15. The standard rule of thumb is to save at least 10% of your income.
    • "Save 10% for basics, 15% for comfort, 20% to escape."
16. According to Consumer Reports, when you're faced with the repair of an appliance (such as a refrigerator or washing machine), you should buy a new one if the appliance is more than eight years old (or if the repair would cost more than half what it would take to buy a replacement).

1. Combine car trips. If you need to run out to the store/run an errand, combine that with another errand that you need to run. Hold off on non-essential errands until you can do so, map out your route. Once you know the cost per mile for operating your vehicle, you'll find that it's likely you could save a couple of bucks each and every time you do this vs running out to the store for one thing.
2. Drink water. Don't just drink water in addition to whatever else you're drinking to meet a quota, but replace beverages with water. I limit myself to one non-water beverage a day, and that one beverage I almost always make at home vs. buying at a shop. I've witnessed coworkers drink a Starbucks in the morning, a bottled beverage with their takeout lunch, and then an energy drink over the course of the 8 hour day. That's $10 right there! Add in the beer after work and that's a whole lot of money and calories spent on non-essential items.
3. Set aside money every time you resist a purchase. I have the Bank of America app where you can set up "goals". Every time I get tempted to buy something and resist, I put whatever amount it would have cost me toward that goal. Makes it easy to resist temptation when I see that money pile up. I very satisfyingly transfer that total to my high yield savings account at the end of the month.
4. Bring your own bag, or no bag, and buy only what you can carry. If I go shopping somewhere like a mall or market for non-essentials, I bring a bag and I only let myself buy what I can carry in that bag. Or I bring no bag at all and I'm limited to buying only what I can carry. Granted I know that expensive things can be small, but this helps me be more mindful. If I do this at a grocery store, it helps me cut down on buying snacks since I need the space for actual groceries.
5. Try out the non-Goodwill thrift stores in your area. I hope this isn't an obvious one, but I find that the smaller non-chain stores tend to have better prices, are less crowded, and often better finds because they're not as picked over.
6. Refill/repurpose instead of buying new. I either have those 64 oz refill jugs for soaps or I go to my local refill store. You'd be surprised at what you can refill. I swap throw pillow covers to keep up with decor trends rather than buying whole new pillows.
7. Hike/walk/yoga. These are all free or very cheap compared to other activities. There's also great adaptive yoga/exercise videos on YouTube if you can't walk.
8. Wash your clothes less frequently. You can finds all sorts of articles on why you don't need to wash your jeans/jackets with every use, plus fewer microplastics in our water. Also, this is probably more cultural, but you don't need to shower or wash your hair every day either if you're not active that particular day…
9. Don't buy it unless you love it. I don't care if I just like it, I need to love it. It's remarkable how many things I put back on the shelf/rack when I really think about if I feel strongly about it.

These require certain circumstances/effort:

1. No alcohol. Alcohol is wildly expensive and does not bring any positives to my life and health. I never have to pay for Ubers either.
2. Reevaluate everything you own every six months/year/couple of years. Timeline/scope may vary, but if I haven't used or thought about an item for the past 6 months/1 year and it's not sentimental, it gets sold, donated, recycled, or trashed. It's a great reminder to think hard before any purchase, and declutters your life and mind. Apparently I've been Marie Kondo-ing my entire life.
3. Figure out what brands your local consignment clothing store likes. I've found that my local store seems to buy ANYTHING Brandy Melville, Urban Outfitters, Madewell, even if they're in worse condition than the items that I bring in that aren't those brands. I look for these brands when I thrift to wear for a bit and then resell, and/or those are the brands that I buy new knowing I'll recoup some money.
4. Take the plunge with your side hustle/start today! If you aren't already deep into your side hustle, go for it! I have an Etsy store and I see posts in that sub all the time of people getting their shop perfect and ready for MONTHS before launching, having a large product line/inventory, building a social media following, etc etc. People are afraid of putting themselves out there and I get it! But I just read up on taxes and listings, created a shop with three items: one sold after a week and it all snowballed after that. I could have wasted months of sales dilly-dallying. I won't pretend that I probably had some luck there as well, but sometimes you just have to dive in.

Hourly Wage:

• Think about your job. Think of all the things you do and the money you spend that you wouldn’t if you didn’t work.
• Your Money or Your Life lists eight such possible job expenses, including a few which might be applicable to Joe:
  • Commuting — Joe’s office is 20 miles from home. Every day, he spends an hour total commuting to and from work in his 2010 Toyota Camry, which costs about 58 cents per mile to operate. His weekly commute costs him five hours and $116 (58 cents times 200 miles).
  • Clothing — It doesn’t take Joe extra time to get dressed in the morning, but it does cost him a little extra money. Several times each year, he has to buy new work clothes because the old ones wear out. Maybe he spends $500 annually on work clothes.
  • Food — Joe might take a sack lunch if he were on his own, but he works with a partner who prefers fast food. Joe likes McDonald’s and Burger King too, so he’s happy to go along for the ride. Each day, Joe spends about $5 and one hour for lunch.
  • Now that he knows how much time and money Joe spends on the job, he can compute his true hourly wage. The equation is simple.
    • First, Joe subtracts his work-related expenses from his annual salary to find his actual earnings. Using the figures above, Joe is actually earning $46,000 per year ($53,000 base minus $7000 for commuting, clothing, and food).
    • Next, he computes the total time he spends on his job (including business trips and Christmas parties, etc.). Joe leaves the house at 6:30 in the morning, and doesn’t return until 4:30 in the afternoon, which means he’s devoting 50 hours per week to work, or about 2500 hours per year.
    • Finally, Joe divides his actual earnings by the total number of hours he spends each year on work-related tasks.

Because of taxes and compounding one dollar saved is worth more than one dollar spent.

• When you combine the effects of taxes and compounding, the results are remarkable. On average, each dollar an American spends represents $2.57 of value in ten years or $9.57 in thirty years. (If you live outside the U.S., the consequences of spending that dollar are probably even greater.)
• The bottom line? The opportunity cost of spending one dollar today is ten dollars you might have had in retirement.

As you know, I believe profit margin (or saving rate) — the percentage of your income that goes to saving and investing — is the most important number in personal finance. Profit doesn’t just remove the wall of worry from your life, but it also buys time — both now and in the future.

• When you learn to live on less, when you keep your profit margin high, you gain the freedom to work less. By maintaining an ambitious saving rate of 50 or even 70 percent in your twenties and thirties, you can retire when you’re 40 years old instead of 65. This gives you forty years of freedom to do what you want with life rather than fifteen.

Ultimately, work-life balance is about managing the way you use both time and money.

1. How much money do you have?
2. How much do you earn each month?
3. How much debt do you have?
4. How much money do you spend each month?
5. How much do you spend each month on debt payments only?
6. How much money are you saving each month?
7. How much is in your emergency fund?
8. What is your net worth?
9. What’s your plan?
10. Bonus question to make up for question #1: How many months until you are debt free?

Erica Accounts (Our Version)

• 46.67% U.S. stocks
• 33.33% International stocks
• 20% Bonds
  • 10% is TIPS

• 401k choices (2022):

  Security	%
  US Equity Index	35
  Intl Equity Index	25
  Bonds Index	7.5
  TIPS	7.5
  Target 2045	5
  Target 2050	15
  Target 2055	5
  Total	100.

3 Account Version (Aggressive) - An 80/20 portfolio

• 64% U.S. stocks
• 16% International stocks
• 20% Bonds

3 Account Version (Moderate):

1. 33% U.S. stocks
2. 33% International stocks
3. 33% bonds

3 Account Version (Conservative) - A 20/80 portfolio

• 14% U.S. stocks
• 6% International stocks
• 80% bonds

7 Account Version:

• Domestic Total Stock - 28%
• Domestic Small Cap - 7%
• Real Estate - 7%
• International Total Stock - 28%
• Emerging Markets - 17%
• Total Bond - 7%
• Treasury Inflation Protected Securities - 6%

• Savings = 20%
• Tithe = 10%
• House = 25%
• Food = 10%
• Utilities (including phone and cable) = 15%
• Transportation = 10%
• Clothing = 5%
• Other = 5%

Table 5: Here is how experts like Dave Ramsey suggest you allocate your spending.

Category	Percentage of Net Income
Giving	10%
Saving	10%
Food	10-15%
Utilities	5-10%
Housing	25-35%
Transportation	10%
Insurance	10-20%
Health	5-10%
Recreation	5-10%
Personal	5-10%
Miscellaneous	5-10%

1. Write Down All of Your Account Information
   • Examples of accounts:
     • Checking and savings accounts
     • Credit cards
     • 401(k)s and IRAs
     • Brokerage accounts
     • Student loan accounts
     • Car loan
     • Mortgage
     • Medical debt
     • Auto insurance
     • Home/renter's insurance
     • Life insurance
     • Taxes
2. Check Your Credit Report
3. Flag Financial Emails
4. Organize Your Financial Paperwork
   • Keep only the most recent copies of things (like your bank balances or auto insurance policy) and shred the old ones. One exception: Tax returns.
5. Put a semi-regular reminder in your calendar to stay on top of your paperwork.

First, start by putting $30 per week into a savings account. Make sure it’s a boring, vanilla savings account; we don’t want this money invested in anything risky.

• Create a separate savings account to create a wall between it and the rest of your cash – you’re less likely to spend it.
• Make the weekly transfer automatic and forget about it entirely. You’ll barely miss the cash.
• Next, wait seven years. It sounds like a long time, but most cars last at least that long with proper maintenance.
• In seven years, your measly $30 transfers will have amassed into $10,920 plus a small amount of interest.

A handy metric for used cars is 7-7-7.

• Try to target used cars that are seven years old, with around 70,000 miles on them, for around $7,000.
• Kelley Blue book values plenty of great cars in this category at $7,000: Honda Civic, Honda Fit, Hyundai Elantra, Toyota Corolla and Toyota Scion.
• With $7,000 spent for the car, you’ve still got an additional almost $4,000 to help with registration, maintenance, and insurance.

• Orbitz for Flights/Hotels
• Kayak for Rental Cars
• Frontier/Spirit/Allegiant usually for flights
• greatescape.co cheapest flights around world for a trip

1. 401(k)s, 403(b)s and Traditional IRAs Contributions and gains in these tax-deferred accounts are taxed at your income tax rate in retirement when you withdraw funds. Required minimum distributions will begin at age 70½ for those with traditional IRAs and 401(k)s, which can cause a major headache for seniors who are still working at that age at their highest income ever. RMDs could push you into a higher tax bracket, increasing your tax burden. To lessen the tax load on these accounts, the AARP recommends starting to take disbursements “while still in your 60s and in a lower tax bracket,” rather than waiting until 70½. “With care, you can steadily withdraw money and stay within your current tax bracket.”
2. Roth IRAs Roth IRA withdrawals are tax free (assuming you’ve had the account for at least five years and you’re over 59½), as you contribute money to these accounts that you’ve already been taxed on. If you’re under 59½, you’ll face a 10 percent early-withdrawal fee on the gains (but not your contributions). Again, you could convert some of your money into a Roth later on to try to save on taxes. You’ll pay income taxes on the amount you convert, but after that you won’t be taxed again and there’s no required distribution.
3. Pensions Pensions are typically taxed at your income tax rate, as they’re funded with pre-tax dollars.
4. Social Security To what degree your Social Security benefits are taxed depends on your marital status and your “provisional income,” and could be as high as 85 percent. Determining your provisional income gets a bit complicated (the IRS has a calculator), but basically, half of your Social Security income is added to your other retirement income, and if that amount exceeds $32,000 annually for couples and $25,000 for singles, your Social Security benefits will be taxed: up to 50 percent if your income is between $32,0000 and $44,000 ($25,000 to $34,000 for singles), and up to 85 percent if you’re earning more than $44,000 ($34,000 for singles).
5. Stocks, Bonds and Mutual Funds If you sell stocks, bonds or mutual funds that you’ve owned for more than one year, you’ll owe the long-term capital gains tax. And depending on your income, that could mean no taxes at all: For example, for tax year 2018, if you’re married filing jointly and earn up to $77,200 (or single earning up to $38,600), gains are tax-free. Married couples making between $77,200 to $479,000 (and singles earning between $38,600 and $425,800) are taxed at 15 percent, and people with incomes above those levels face a 20 percent tax. If you held the asset for less than a year, you owe the short-term capital gains tax if you sell the investment, which is your ordinary income tax rate. For more, check out this explainer.
6. Dividends Qualified dividends—those that meet requirements for a specific holding period—are taxed at long-term capital gains rates, while non-qualified dividends are taxed at your ordinary income rate. One note: If the dividends are reinvested in a 401(k) or IRA, they’ll be taxed at your ordinary income rate (since they weren’t taxed before).
7. Annuities This all depends on how your annuity is funded. If you use after-tax money to buy your annuity, then only the gains on annuities used for retirement income are taxable at your ordinary income level. The principal amount is not taxed. However, if you purchase your annuity using pretax IRA or 401(k) money, then 100 percent of payouts are taxed as ordinary income. For more nuance on the differences between deferred and immediate annuities, read this article.
8. CDs and Money Market Accounts Interest payments on these funds are taxed at your ordinary income rate. There’s one big caveat to all of this, and that’s if you live in one of nine states with no income tax. So if you retire in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington or Wyoming, you won’t pay state income tax on 401(k) and IRA withdrawals, Social Security benefits or pension payments.

"We basically follow what's called a 'four percent rule,' and that means you can withdraw, basically four percent of your net-worth and live off of that. Four percent of $500,000 was $20,000, and we could get by off of that without any problem. Today our net-worth has increased since that time period. When we retired in 1991 the S&P 500 was at 312.49 at the day we retired. And as of yesterday I think it's around 1850 or so."

If you live off 15% - you could retire on that amount in 5 years.

$100 - live on $15 saving $85. In 5 years -> 85x5=425

4% of $425 = $17

http://mynorthwest.com/813/2470188/Couple-retired-since-age-38-Americans-dont-realize-how-wealthy-they-are

• Craigslist
• Offer up
• Let Go
• Next Door
• Facebook

Dependent Plan:

• 2016: Ella
• 2017: Caleb
• 2018: Ella
• 2019: Caleb
• 2020: Ella
• 2021: Caleb
• 2022: Ella
• 2023: Caleb
• 2024: Ella
• 2026: Ella

more needed When you retire early, you Use up your taxable accounts first.

On your first day of freedom, you log into your account, find the option for what to do with dividends, and set those to get automatically deposited into your checking account.

Right now, the VTI fund happens to pay a 1.89% annual dividend, which means that the $500,000 account in that green box above will pay $9000 in annual dividends straight to you.

Then, if you're shooting for $40,000 of annual spending, simply set up an automatic monthly withdrawal of an additional $31,000 per year ($2583 per month) to be sent to your checking account, which is set to automatically pay off your credit card, which you use to buy your groceries.

Inflation/Deflation:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): Measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services
• FAO Food Price Index (FFPI): Measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities

Employment:

• Current Employment Statistics (CES): Industry estimates of nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings of workers on payrolls
• Current Population Survey (CPS): Monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It provides a comprehensive body of data on the
  • labor force
  • employment
  • unemployment
  • persons not in the labor force
  • hours of work
  • earnings
  • other demographic and labor force characteristics
• Labor productivity: Measure of economic performance that compares the amount of goods and services produced (output) with the number of hours worked to produce those goods and services
• Personal Income: Income that people get from wages and salaries, Social Security and other government benefits, dividends and interest, business ownership, and other sources

Production:

• Gross Domestic Product: A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity

Employment reports:

• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Steps:

1. Find your expected annual spending going forward.
   • As a reminder, for middle income in the U.S. this is about $50,000 a year and for the top 20% of income earners this is $120,000 a year. I’m assuming you will be in this range.
2. Reduce your spending by any guaranteed income you have coming in.
   • If you can make $10,000 a year without issue or you have Social Security income of $24,000 a year, then subtract this from your expected future annual spending. We will call this your Annual Excess Spending.
3. Divide your Annual Excess Spending by a reasonable rate of return.
   • If you can earn 5% a year without issue, divide by 0.05, however, I would recommend a more conservative estimate like 4% or even less (given where bond yields are today).

What you get from dividing the number in (2) by (3) is your crossover point and should be close to the amount of money you need to have invested for financial independence.

An example for 3 spending levels ($10k, $50k, $100k):

• At $10,000 in annual excess spending, you will need $200k – $500k
• At $50,000 in annual excess spending, you will need $1M – $2.5M
• At $100,000 in annual excess spending, you will need $2M – $5M

The most important factor for reaching financial independence isn’t your rate of return, but your spending.

• Technically, every person could be financially independent tomorrow if they lowered their spending enough (and had no outstanding debt).

Spending determines everything when it comes to reaching financial independence.

• Therefore, if you can find ways to be happy while spending less, you already own one of the most valuable assets in the world.

Reference:

• https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-much-do-you-need-to-be-financially-independent/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

• The $1 rule: "If an item comes out to one dollar or less per use, I give myself the green light to buy it," says Joy.
• The 80/20 rule: If the purchase will be used 80 percent of the time, it's worth it, says Joy. You'll end up with better quality and sustainable products.
• Focus on what you "really love": Don't curb your enthusiasm, says Joy. "Constantly tracking every penny and slapping myself on the wrist didn't make me want to spend less."

1. Why should I expect stocks to go up?

   Notably, Siegel was able to piece together market data going all the way back to 1802. His finding: Market returns in the 1800s weren’t all that different from our more recent experience. He goes on to explain why returns have been so consistent over time. The short version: Stock prices tend to follow corporate profits. This, of course, isn’t true every day. But over long periods, share prices do tend to mirror corporate earnings.

2. Should investors have confidence that profits will continue to grow?

   Probably, because the same economic principles that applied in 1800 and 1900 still apply today. Companies are always working to develop new products, to expand the market for those products and to manufacture them more efficiently. Taken together, these three factors are the universal drivers of economic growth, and thus of stock prices.

3. Why is active management destined to underperform?

   The more fundamental reason: cost. Actively managed funds are, on average, much more expensive than their passively managed peers. Of course, active managers will argue that cost isn’t the most important thing. Instead, they’ll argue that the only thing that matters is bottom-line performance. Indeed, if an active manager is able to beat his benchmark by more than his fee, then an investor in that fund would come out ahead.

4. If the only issue is cost, can’t individuals managing their own money beat the market?

   Unfortunately, cost isn’t the only factor. It turns out that picking winning stocks is very difficult. Brad Barber and Terrance Odean, both professors at the University of California, have been studying this for decades. In 2000, they published “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth,” which examined the connection between trading frequency and performance. In 2007, they published “All That Glitters,” which looked at the trap presented by popular stocks. More recently, they’ve examined the Robinhood phenomenon and studied some of the paradoxes exhibited by the trading results of individual investors.

5. Lots of people have made money in obvious winners like Apple, Amazon and Google. Doesn’t that contradict Barber and Odean’s research?

   A paper titled “Selling Fast and Buying Slow,” published last year, helps explain the apparent contradiction. Professional investors actually do a pretty good job of spotting winners. The problem is on the other end. When it comes to selling, investors do a poor job—so poor, in fact, that it offsets the advantage gained by their timely purchases.

6. If actively managed funds underperform and I shouldn’t pick stocks myself, what about private investment funds instead?

   Major universities and pension funds often invest in private equity funds and hedge funds. That might lead an investor to conclude that these funds are the way to go, especially if traditional mutual funds have such a poor track record. But this turns out to be a dubious idea, for two reasons.

   First, according to a study by McKinsey, there’s wide dispersion in the performance of private funds—much wider than among publicly traded funds. This means that it’s especially important to choose the very best from among the universe of private funds. But that presents a problem. If you or I were a billion-dollar endowment, the best funds would be happy to have us. But these funds aren’t interested in everyday investors. They’re not even interested in everyday millionaires. Andy Rachleff, a founder of Benchmark Capital, explained this, in colorful terms, in an interview a while back.

   The second reason private funds are a problem: Because they’re more lightly regulated, private funds are fertile ground for unscrupulous operators. Everyone knows about Bernie Madoff’s misdeeds, but he’s hardly the only one. There was Jan Lewan, the “king of polka.” There was Elliot Smerling, who specialized in forgery. And there was Marcos Tamayo, the airport baggage handler. The list is long.

   And those are just the more notable cases. According to the SEC, fee billing issues are widespread. In a speech, an SEC examiner had this to say: “When we have examined how fees and expenses are handled by advisors to private equity funds, we have identified what we believe are violations of law or material weaknesses in controls over 50% of the time.” Private funds are a minefield.

Take-Home Pay	Budget Category	Type of Expense
50%	Needs	Mortgage/rent, food, utilities, transportation
30%	Wants	Eating out, shopping, vacations, entertainment
20%	Savings	Emergency fund, debt payoff, retirement

The personal finance experts all say that in order to get rich you need to:

• Create a budget
• Open a retirement account (401(k), IRA, etc.)
• Have 6 months in emergency savings
• Invest in index funds
• Buy a house (since it’s your best investment)
• Save 10% of your income
• Eliminate all debt
• Minimize your expenses
• Spend less than you earn and invest the difference.

You’ll do slightly better than average if you follow this advice, but in personal finance, average really sucks. The average person:

• Has a salary of $49k a year.
• Doesn’t have enough in emergency savings — 19% of Americans have $0 and 31% have less than $500 saved
• Spends 56% on their food budget
• Has over $5,700 in credit card debt with a 17.89% interest rate
• Has only $150k in savings by retirement
• Relies on Social Security to fund most of their retirement

In reality, they used these techniques to get rich:

• Generate income not based on hours worked
• Minimize taxes
• Leverage time and debt

The average person does not understand basic business concepts, taxes, and finance. They don’t understand as a business owner you have much more control over your income and the taxes you pay. Business owners have the capability to delay taxes (in some cases indefinitely).

However, a wage earner is pretty much screwed. Your options to reduce your taxes are pretty much limited to an employee-sponsored retirement plan and having children. Therefore, as an employee, you effectively pay more taxes.

It’s not how much you make, but how much you keep.

Follow what the personal finance experts do, not what they say — start a business.

Create at least a side hustle. You’ll learn much more about finance, taxes, entrepreneurship, and marketing than in any classroom or what the media thinks it knows about owning a business.

You’ll NEVER get rich by working for someone else. That’s something you’ll never hear from any personal finance expert. But being a business owner is how they got rich themselves.

https://larryludwig.com/all-personal-finance-experts-are-liars/

Nafsa.org

From: https://www.clevergirlfinance.com/blog/personal-finance-ratios/

From: https://www.sidehustlenation.com/things-i-have-learned/

1. There are only 2 ways to get rich. Make more, or desire less.

2. The best opportunities aren’t visible until you’re already in motion. I have Ryan Finlay from episode 72 of The Side Hustle Show to thank for this one. Although I don’t think I fully understood the advice at the time, I’ve come to see it hold true over and over again, both for myself and for my fellow entrepreneurs. It’s physics: an object in motion stays in motion. Once you get moving down the entrepreneurial path, no matter how feeble those first few steps are, it’s tough to stop. For example:

   • This website is the direct descendant of an old personal blog I had.
   • That blog was inspired by a friend of mine I hired to help with SEO for my shoe business.
   • The shoe business was born out of an internship I had in college.
   • Another friend pointed out that internship job posting because he knew my other one was over.

   In another branch of the side hustle tree:

   • I started a freelance editing business on Fiverr.
   • I learned about selling on Fiverr from an interview on the podcast.
   • I knew about Kindle publishing because I’d self-published a few books.
   • I self-published my first book because I wanted to make a website of mine appear more authoritative.
   • I first built that website after getting inspired by a similar site in a different niche while researching yet another website.

   These words from Ryan are probably the “#1 tip” I return to most often. Start today. You never know where it will lead you!

3. Want to “make money online”? Help someone. There have volumes of content written about how to make money online, but the simplest answer is usually the one that gets overlooked: help someone. I’m reminded of The Rule of the Internet, which was explained to me by Jim Kukral at a conference a few years ago. He said, “People are only ever online for one of two reasons: to solve a problem, or to be entertained.” I think solving problems is generally easier (and perhaps less competitive) than being entertaining, so what problem(s) can you solve? Money only follows value. Like Zig Ziglar said, “You can have everything in life you want, if you will just help other people get what they want.”
4. You vote your priorities with your time. My most common excuse for not getting something done has historically been, “I didn’t have enough time.” What I’ve tried to replace that with is the more honest, “I prioritized something else.” Time is our most valuable asset, and it’s a uniquely egalitarian asset in that everyone has the same 24 hours each day. Related: How to Unlock an Extra 2 Hours a Day Related: 5 Ways to Be More Effective Every Day – In Just 5 Minutes
5. No one bats 1,000. What I mean by that is not everything you try is going to be a success. (For those unfamiliar with baseball statistics, a batting average of 1.000 means getting a hit every time. Some of the best players in history hit .300, essentially failing 7 times out of 10.) I’ve had plenty of failed projects a long the way. Some were expensive mistakes and lost me a lot of money, and others just cost me my time. Don’t let the fear of failure stop you from stepping up to the plate, because one thing’s for certain: if you never swing, you’ll never get a hit. And here’s the other thing about failing: it’s usually not life-threatening.
6. Plane tickets are my favorite things to buy. Perhaps you’ve heard the quote “travel is the only thing you buy that makes you richer.” While it’s definitely not the only thing you can buy to improve your life, it is one of my favorites. In the last 10 years, we’ve been fortunate to travel quite a bit both domestically and internationally. And the trips are exciting, but the cool thing about buying plane tickets is you get to look forward to that trip for months. And now the cool thing is being able to meetup with fellow side hustlers and “Internet friends” nearly everywhere we go. Related: We often fly and stay for free thanks to this one spending habit.
7. When it comes to people, no matter where you go, we’re more alike than we are different. Most of us have the same desires and motivations all around the world. Maslow called this the hierarchy of needs, and more recently Dan Pink explained how we strive for Autonomy, Mastery, and Purpose. This has been helpful to realize in a time when everything seems so polarized.
8. That said, no matter what you do, some people are just jerks. Especially online. Do your best work and don’t stress the haters and the trolls. As someone — and maybe this sounds familiar — who generally prefers to be liked over disliked, this was a tough one. But as T. Swift would say, haters gonna hate and you just gotta shake it off :) I used to get pretty upset over someone leaving me a bad review or calling me names online. And I’d be lying if I said it still doesn’t bother me a little, but the kind notes and thank yous I receive far outnumber and outweigh those. I even created a “hate mail” label in my Gmail so I can archive some of the more colorful messages I get. I tell myself they’re probably just having a bad day. Important note: Constructive criticism like I ask for in my member surveys is actually really helpful. I’ve made several changes in response to those notes.
9. Choosing what’s next doesn’t mean choosing what’s forever. In the past, I think I assigned an unnecessary permanence to certain decisions. For instance, I naively thought I might run my original shoe business forever. But in other areas, I went into jobs and projects positioning them as experiments in my head. I knew I didn’t want to stay at Ford forever before I even started, but it was what was next. Similarly, that’s opened the doors to play around with other side hustles and have fun with them knowing that if they don’t work or I don’t enjoy them, I don’t have to keep doing them.
10. The journey is the destination. So the shoe business I mentioned above? That was my original side hustle, but after 10 years, it had reached the end of its lifespan. It had a great run and was the vehicle that allowed me to quit my job, but it was time to move on. I think every business (and human) has a lifespan — some longer than others of course — and while there are things you can do to extend the longevity, nothing lives forever. That’s why I say the journey IS the destination. You’ve got to learn to love process, the ups and downs and twists along the way because every time to get where you’re going, the same question always looms: what’s next?
11. Get while the getting’s good. In hindsight, knowing that the business wasn’t going to last forever, I wish I’d scaled up faster. I could have brought on help earlier to help accelerate the growth, but I figured I had plenty of time — and probably had some control issues too. But I see people taking this lesson to heart on platforms like Amazon FBA. The opportunity might not last forever, but they’ve found something that works right now and are going hard to build their business while it does.
12. If there’s a shortcut, it’s mentorship. For years and years, I was a hermit. I was heads down, working on my business, with very little interaction with the outside world. I was stubborn, but resourceful, I told myself — every challenge that came along — I can figure this out. That attitude was at least better than giving up and throwing in the towel — but I’ve come to recognize there’s a 3rd option that involves less brute force effort and can shorten the learning curve for almost any task. And that’s mentorship. Instead of trying to figure everything out myself, I now ask, what I learn from the people who’ve gone before me? Masterminds have been a huge gamechanger for me, and it’s kind of crazy to think a few years ago I had no idea what they were. But that changed, and those groups have been really helpful for accountability, feedback, support, and friendship over the years. The entrepreneurial road can be lonely, and a peer group or mastermind group of people walking a similar path and make sure everyone gets where they’re going a little faster.
13. When the work sucks, it’s time to move on. If your side hustle gets to the point where it just drags on you, why keep it going? The last thing you need is a second job you hate. I’ve pulled the plug on several projects because I just didn’t enjoy working on them. Some where money-makers and some weren’t performing that well, but the common ground was there were other projects I could prioritize that were more exciting, rewarding, and fulfilling. Like the podcast.
14. You can’t expect to get better without practice. I don’t play much golf anymore, but when I did I’d constantly berate myself for not improving. Then it hit me: why did I expect to get better? It’s not like I’d been practicing or hitting the driving range consistently since the last round I played. The same is true with business. You’re probably not going to be awesome at it your first time out, but you will get better with practice.
15. Dogs are awesome. I was never “a dog person” growing up, and as a young adult and aspiring entrepreneur, the last thing I wanted was another responsibility to take care of. Ten years later, the “side hustle shih tzu” is an irreplaceable part of our family. He doesn’t get as much attention as he used to, but the place feels empty without him and I think having him around the house has been great for our boys.
16. Everyone is self-conscious about something. Too fat, too thin, too hairy, too bald, too short, too tall, my voice sounds weird, my car’s a mess, my clothes don’t fit. Whatever it is, we’ve all got our own insecurities. Hmm … I can grow hair on my face… The good news is, most people are too worried about themselves to even notice yours.
17. It’s OK to marry your high school sweetheart…. …but there’s no need to rush into things. Bryn and I started dating our sophomore year of high school, when I was 16 and she was 15. Eleven years later, we finally tied the knot in top secret-fashion at San Francisco City Hall. (A few months later friends and family joined us for an awesome sham-wedding weekend in Cabo.) I love having such a long history and having grown up together. She’s been super-supportive of all my crazy business ideas and has built a pretty sweet side hustle herself. In college, when I was debating taking this house painting “internship,” she encouraged me to give it a shot. “So what if it sucks?” she asked. “It’s 3 months of your life.” And you know what? It did suck. But it was also amazing and eye-opening and a really important experience for me. One thing that did take us a while to fully embrace is that when it comes to finances, it’s a team sport. To this day we actually still have separate accounts, but they really are in name only. When we learned that early retirement was even a thing, we both got really excited and began tracking our household net worth. Related: You can use a free tool like Personal Capital to track yours.
18. Millennia of biology aside, babymaking will never be a “rational” decision in the 21st Century. I wrote this years before our sons were born and still stand by it. Our little hustlers are by no means the product of rational decision making, which is why I think we had such a hard time making it. We are spreadsheet people, through and through, and the “cons” column on our pros/cons list was quite a bit longer! I mean, kids cost time, money, and freedom — and sleep — 4 things we happen to value quite a bit. So we justified the choice by chalking parenthood up to being part of the adventure of life and the hope he’d make our lives happier (despite boatloads of scientific evidence to the contrary) and the rest of the world a better place. In the end, we’ve concluded that parenthood amplifies happiness. The highs are higher and the lows are lower — and both more frequent.
19. But kids are pretty awesome too. It’s been a blast watching the boys grow and learn more every day. They are both sponges to the world and it’s fascinating to see everything they pick up on. family in sf Being a parent has given me a lot of new perspectives, including to appreciate life’s little pleasures, moments of calm, and a newfound respect for all the sacrifices my parents made.
20. Control the controllables. In our house we have a saying: “the weather in Turkey.” Bryn actually came up with this while we were getting ready for our trip to Istanbul a couple years ago, as I was getting stressed about rainy weather on the 10-day forecast. Since then, we use it to redirect focus on things you can control (what you pack) vs. the things you can’t (the weather). (It actually ended up being beautiful there!) It’s also helpful if you or partner find yourself freaking out about politics, current events, or other market conditions. It’s all just weather in Turkey and all you can do is control what you can control. In a sense, “control the controllables” is the driving point behind Side Hustle Nation. You never know what outside forces will do your livelihood, so it’s best to be proactive and take matters into your own hands and your own hustle.
21. It’s just a game. When it comes to sports, winning is more fun, but in the end it’s just a game. And the same is true for most of the stuff we stress about. I used to be super-competitive in academics, in business, and in sports — not that I was ever very good — I just took losing personally and wanted to do better. It took some humbling experiences in all of those areas to teach me to zoom out a little bit and understand if I put in my best effort and someone else beat me, good on them.
22. To say yes, you gotta say no. Everything has an opportunity cost. When you say yes to something, you’re inherently saying no to something else. I’ve been trying to get better about using Derek Sivers’ decision making framework: If it’s not a “hell yes!”, it’s a “no.” That’s actually been helpful and has made me more mindful of the projects I take on, the pitches I accept, and the meeting invites I put on the calendar. Lately I’ve been using my own Progress Journal to help identify my top priorities and track progress toward them.
23. If you don’t take care of your body, where will you live? Your body and your mind, which it carries, are probably some of your most important tools. Doesn’t it make sense to prioritize their maintenance, health, and wellbeing? Take care of yourself. That means fuel, hydrate, move, and rest. When I’m disciplined about these things, I feel 10x better and am way more effective as a business owner and a parent. Related: My HealthyWage review: Could you get paid to lose weight? Related: Can you turn exercise into an income stream? Here are some creative ways to get paid to walk.
24. Willpower is easier when you play offense. Playing defense with willpower all day is exhausting! If I had to pass a bowl of M&M’s every time I got up from my desk, they wouldn’t last long. But they’re not there — play a little bit of offense to save yourself from hours or weeks of agonizing defense.
    • If you want to stop eating sugary processed food, stop bringing sugary processed food into the house.
    • If you want to drink less, don’t keep beer in the fridge.
    • If you want to exercise more, put your gear right by the bed.
25. If you speak with confidence and conviction, people will believe you. Unfortunately it works even when it’s BS; politicians are excellent at this. But speaking with confidence is another one of those things that comes with practice. I hope if you go back and listen to the first few episodes of the podcast and compare them with the ones from 6 years later, you’ll hear an improvement. I may not have felt very confident when I was up on stage, but it took a certain degree of confidence to land my TEDx talk in the first place. “Do you have any speaking experience?” the organizers asked. “Well… I have a podcast,” I said, and went on to explain the perspective I could bring to the event.

26. The things you own end up owning you. Clutter stresses me out. It costs money, it’s a pain to move, and it takes up mental bandwidth. But beyond that, owning a bunch of stuff can really hinder your happiness, especially if it’s nice stuff. Over the past few years, I’ve tried to implement a couple strategies for making new purchases:

    • The 30-day waiting period. Next time you’re thinking of buying something, sit on it for 30 days.
    • Buy higher quality. When I do buy something new, especially clothes, I’ve shifted to spending more upfront for something higher quality that I really like, fits well, and will last.

    To get rid of the unnecessary possessions in your life, and even make some money in the process, you can use a couple framing questions:

    • Would you buy it again?
    • Have you used it in the last year?
    • Could it be easily and inexpensively replaced?

    Now it’s not like I’ve gone full minimalist, but I’m just trying to be more conscious about bringing new possessions into the house.

27. No one else is going to do it for you. This one took a while to really sink in. I’d have items on my to-do list for weeks at a time, and finally I’d realize they were only ever going to get done if I did something about it. What that means is taking responsibility for your own life and financial well-being, becoming your own boss, and not relying on your parents, the government, or your employer. Nobody else is going to do it for you.
28. You can’t do it all yourself. Or maybe better said, you shouldn’t do it all yourself. I’ve been working on improving my delegation skills for years, and still have a long way to go. But I know this: I’m in a better place today, because I’ve been able to let go of certain tasks and projects. Sometimes there are people better suited to the job. Other times there are better things I should be doing with my time. Look at hiring not as an expense but as an investment. Think of yourself buying time, as John Jonas put it in our episode on hiring virtual assistants. It’s hard to imagine a better thing to invest in.
29. The second best way to prevent a hangover is Vitamin B. The best way of course is not drinking. Shocking, I know. Also, if you “need” a drink after work, you “need” a different job.
30. Generally speaking, the majority of subject matter in school is silly. I use the facts and formulas I memorized for school approximately never. And this is coming from a former valedictorian. Pretty sure all that hair bleach contributed to today’s state up top. And yes, Bryn was a valedictorian too! What I’ve realized is that formal education is more about learning how to learn and communicate. Those are skills I use every day. Those lifelong skills will always be more important than memorizing passages of Hamlet or writing in cursive.
31. It’s hard to believe, but some people don’t like Jimmy Buffett. My mom’s a Parrothead so I grew up listening to his music. Today it reminds me of home and I actually think there’s a lot of wisdom in some of his lyrics. For example:
    • “If we weren’t all crazy, we would go insane.”
    • “Wrinkles only go where the smiles have been.”
    • Pretty much all of Cowboy in the Jungle.
32. The sound of snow falling is the best music in the world. I love it. I think I want to experiment living in the mountains.
33. Perfection is the enemy of good enough. I used to be much more of a perfectionist, but I’ve since learned that good enough is good enough. Striving for perfection is a recipe for disappointment, procrastination, and failure to launch. Now that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t care about your work, just recognize that you can still help people and still make money with something that’s still imperfect in your mind. In the words of Reid Hoffman, the founder of LinkedIn, “If you’re not embarrassed by your first product, you launched too late.”
34. In the grand scheme of things, if you’re reading this, you’re probably very fortunate. You’re literate, have Internet access, and have at least a few free moments in your day. That’s a really powerful combination toward building a successful side hustle. Related: For more perspective, check out GlobalRichList.com.
35. It’s OK to not know what you want to be when you grow up. I still don’t! Blogger/author/podcaster definitely wasn’t on my radar of career choices. I think the question of what you want to be when you grow up is kind of a stressful one, and we’re trained to answer it as if a job is the only right answer. How about happy, excited, or interesting?
36. “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.” I love this quote from Leonardo da Vinci. I have a habit of making things more complicated than they need to be, and this lesson often helps rein me in. With most big decisions or projects, I try and ask if this will ultimately make life simpler or more complex? And if it adds a layer of complexity, is it worth it? Simplify, simplify, simplify.
37. Happiness = Meaningful Work + Meaningful Relationships + Sense of Progress Good things happen when you’re working on something you care about, you feel like you’re getting better either at that work or in other areas of your life, and you have someone to share with. I won’t get too philosophical here, but if you’re unhappy, I think it’s likely that one or more elements of that equation is missing.
38. If you want to be more disciplined, be more disciplined. I think this line came from Jocko Willink, and maybe the context was people were asking for tricks and hacks to get up earlier or stick with their fitness routine. His response? There’s no secret weapon: just be more disciplined. And what I’ve found is that the more you practice it, the more you do it. You start to build that identity habit.
39. If you’ve already won the game, why take additional risk? This was a line that stood out to me from Ramit Sethi’s book I Will Teach You to Be Rich. He was talking about it in the context of bond investing, but I interpreted it more broadly. If you already have everything you need, it’s OK to “miss out” on the pursuit of more.
40. Luxury is feeling unrushed. This is a Tim Ferriss quote, that has especially resonated over the last couple years. We’re no longer rushing to get kids out the door, to get Bryn off to work, and it’s so much more relaxed. My work days start a lot later — and I recognize and appreciate that as a luxury. Luxury doesn’t mean designer brands and fancy cars and houses; it’s time freedom and being able to allocate and invest that time how you like. It’s being in charge of your own calendar and agenda instead of reacting to someone else’s. Think about what you’re optimizing for.
41. And a bonus: people love bonuses. Under-promise and over-deliver.

The 7 Laws of Sales Success: Violate any one of these and your toil will be in vain…

1. Sales is a lot like golf. You can make it so complicated as to be impossible or you can simply walk up and hit the ball. My advice is to walk up and hit the ball.
2. Sales is about people and problem solving. Not technology or solutions.
3. People buy 4 things and 4 things only: time, money, sex, and approval/peace of mind. If you are selling anything else, you will fail.
4. People buy aspirin always. They buy vitamins only occasionally and at unpredictable times. Sell aspirin.
5. All things being equal, people buy from their friends. So make everything else equal then go make a lot of friends.
6. Being valuable and useful is all you ever need to do to sell things. Help people out. Send interesting posts. Write birthday cards. Record videos sharing your ideas for growing their business. Introduce people who would benefit from knowing each other then get out of the way, expecting nothing in return. Do this consistently and authentically and people will find ways to give you money. I promise.
7. No one cares about your quota, your payroll, your opex, your burn rate, etc. No one. They care about the problem you are solving for them.

If you are sending cold emails, you should know that approx 3% of prospects are in the buying window. 3 out of 100 where your timing is good. But even then your message and offer have to be compelling enough to get a response.

At the same time another 30% could be convinced to enter the buying window. We've focused on promoting more of that 30% into the buying window by offering something valuable and useful proactively. A video made just for them showing how the SAAS we offer will solve their problems. An Accessibility report at no cost. Competitor keyword analysis report. A mockup of their website. We dont ask, we just do it and send it over.

"But that takes time/work/energy!" Yes it does. Think of it as the CAC (Cost of Acquisition). You can send 200 cold template emails and hope for 2 to 6 meetings b/c you randomly happened upon that 3%. Or you can send 100 things of value, get 10 to 15 meetings and realize you are valuable, your work has worth, and you are not a SPAMMER.

There is more than 100 trillion dollars in the global economy just waiting for you to breathe it in. Good luck.

From: https://capitalandgrowth.org/answers/Article/3269835/The-7-Laws-of-Sales-Success

[2023-04-09 Sun 10:28]

1. Gains from trade: In any economic exchange, freely chosen, both parties benefit–at least in their own minds.
2. Subjective value: The value of any good or service is determined by the individual human mind.
   • https://fee.org/articles/subjective-value/
3. Opportunity cost: Nothing is free, and the cost of anything is what you give up to get it.
   • https://fee.org/articles/lyft-drivers-have-a-profound-understanding-of-opportunity-cost/
4. Spontaneous order: Society emerges not from top-down intention or planning but from individuals’ actions that result in unplanned outcomes for the whole.
   • https://fee.org/articles/spontaneous-order-is-not-an-engineered-outcome/
5. Incentives: Individuals act to maximize their own reward.
   • https://fee.org/articles/the-power-of-incentives/
6. Comparative advantage: Cooperation between individuals creates value when a seller can produce a given item or service at a lower cost than the buyer would spend to produce it himself.
   • https://fee.org/articles/how-the-theory-of-comparative-advantage-saved-my-marriage/
7. Knowledge problem: No one person or group knows enough to plan (and force) social outcomes, because information necessary for social order is distributed among its members and revealed only in human choice.
   • https://fee.org/articles/hayek-the-knowledge-problem/
8. Seen and Unseen: In addition to the tangible and quantifiable effects, there are quite often invisible costs and unmet opportunities to any action or policy.
   • https://fee.org/resources/that-which-is-seen-and-that-which-is-not-seen
9. Rules matter: Institutions influence the decisions individuals make. For example, property rights extend from the reality of scarcity which demands that ownership must be vested in individuals and not a collective.
   • https://fee.org/articles/the-five-institutions-of-the-market-economy/
   • https://fee.org/articles/human-rights-are-property-rights/
10. Action is purposeful: Each person makes choices with the intention of improving his or her condition.
    • https://fee.org/articles/economics-helps-you-deal-with-difficult-people/
11. Civil society: Voluntary association permits people of all backgrounds to interact peaceably, create value, cultivate personal character, and build mutual trust.
12. Entrepreneurship: Acting on an opportunity to gather underused, misused, or undiscovered resources and ideas to create value for others.

From: https://fee.org/articles/twelve-economic-concepts-everyone-should-know/